4 Fantasy Storylines of AFC Championship Game
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots
Patriots Backfield Situation
Because of injuries to Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee, the Patriots typically-crowded and mysterious backfield cleared up towards the end of the regular season. Bill Belichick will likely continue to rely on a heavy dose of Dion Lewis and Super Bowl LI hero, James White, to pace the New England backfield. While James White is always a high floor PPR option, just because Dion Lewis may have helped you win a 2017 championship doesn’t mean he’s a safe pick in 2018. There will be plenty of “coach speak” about their RB situation throughout OTA’s and training camp, but any Patriots RB will be a risk. In fact, the Patriots under Bill Belichick have had a consistently unpredictable backfield. As the graph below illustrates, the Patriots backfield has had high turnover over the past 10 years; only 3 rushers (BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Stevan Ridley, and LeGarrette Blount) have led the team in rushing in consecutive seasons. Even the consistency of the 3 aforementioned players’ seasons as leading rushers have high variability. In 2016, Blount had over 400 more rushing yards and 12 more rushing touchdowns than his previous season as the Patriots’ leading rusher, and the Patriots still decided to let him go to Free Agency. This data shows that predicting both the leading running back and his output for this offense in any given season is very difficult. Burkhead and Gillislee have produced when called upon, so it is unclear who will tote the rock the most for the Patriots in 2018. Don’t go chasing fantasy points next year – avoid the Patriots backfield in the first five rounds of your draft.
Tom Brady vs. Father Time
What do Tom Brady and a fine wine have in common? They both get better with age. At age 40, Brady turned in another MVP caliber season, throwing for a league high 4,500 yards, while posting 32 touchdowns to just 8 interceptions. Despite battling minor injuries throughout the season, Brady was QB3, averaging 18.5 fantasy points per game. A hot debate this offseason will be if Tom Brady should still be treated as an elite fantasy QB, but the correct side of this debate seems obvious. Until he shows us something different, Brady must be treated as a top QB option with the potential to single-handedly win championships for fantasy owners. He faces his toughest challenge to date this weekend against the stout Jaguars defense, which will serve as a solid gauge of if he still has “it” against the league’s best defense.
2018 Sleeper - Keelan Cole
Keelan Cole was one of the many bright spots for this Jacksonville team. When star teammate Allen Robinson went down with a torn ACL early in the season, Cole was thrown into the fire. The undrafted rookie out of Kentucky Wesleyan College (Division 2) ended up leading the team in receiving yards, doubling the output of the more-hyped up rookie receiver Dede Westbrook. In the fantasy playoffs (weeks 14-16), Cole posted 51 fantasy points, highlighted by a 186-yard performance against the Texans. This playoff output was second only to DeAndre Hopkins, showing that Cole has the capability to produce like a top wide receiver when given the opportunity. A similarly big performance this week against the defending champion Patriots would showcase his upside on a national stage and lead the Jaguars to an upset victory. Cole won’t be drafted as a top-30 WR in 2018, but he will be a popular draft bargain pick as a WR4/5 with WR2 upside.
The best defense in fantasy?
The Jacksonville Defense/Special Teams was clearly the most talented unit in the league in 2017. Calais Campbell paced the defense with 14.5 sacks this season and has made a strong case for defensive Player of the Year. Telvin Smith and Myles Jack is one of the best linebacker duos in the league, backed by two lockdown corners in Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye. Ramsey and Bouye helped lead a defense that allowed the least passing yards (169.9 YPG) by more than 20 yards than the second best passing defense. The real question is, will it be worth taking “Sacksonville” with a 8th or 9th round pick next year? Their 203 fantasy points in 2017 was more than RB8 (Leonard Fournette) and WR3 (Keenan Allen), so many will reach for this unit significantly earlier than other D/STs. However, we still recommend waiting on a defense, as a new top defense will likely emerge again next year. Since 2012, no DST has repeated its first-place finish in the following year. Keep a close eye on how this young defense holds up against the high-octane Patriots offensive attack, and consider selecting them in 2018 if they fall to late in drafts.
Edited by Eric Olaya and Ben Schragger