4 Fantasy Storylines of NFC Championship Game
Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles
Will the Vikings stick with Keenum in 2018? After being a career journeyman, Case Keenum has cemented himself in the national spotlight with a brilliant 2017 campaign. He finished with a TD:INT ratio of 22:7 along with 3,547 yards and a QBR totaling 98.3 on his way to being fantasy’s QB14. Keenum, Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Bradford are both free agents after this season, so Minnesota has a decision to make regarding their future signal-caller. Keenum put together a better fantasy season than Bradford and Bridgewater ever have, even outscoring Bridgewater’s career fantasy totals in just the 2017 season. If Keenum stays, Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen’s stock will remain high. Conversely, the entire Viking offense declines in fantasy value if Bradford or Bridgewater are under center. With Keenum leading the offense, the Minnesota Vikings finished with the 11th ranked offense in the NFL, significantly better than the 28th ranked offense in 2016 with Bradford and the 27th and 29th ranked offenses in 2014 and 2015, respectively, with Bridgewater at quarterback. If Keenum leads the Vikings to a victory in Philly, it’ll make the decision fairly simple. However, this is easier said than done, as Keenum is still prone to mistakes under pressure. The Eagles pass rush has been dominant all season, which could result in several mistakes for the former Houston Cougar legend. If the Vikings lose due to a Keenum subpar performance, he may find himself in another uniform next season, hurting the fantasy value of Vikings players in 2018.
2018 Stock: Thielen or Diggs? Both Vikings starting wideouts put together memorable seasons in Minneapolis in 2017. Thielen is the underdog who no one saw coming, while Diggs is responsible for the “Minnesota Miracle” in the divisional round against New Orleans. INSERT FANTASY STAT. In the divisional round, Diggs had 6 receptions for 137 yards, including a 61-yard walk-off touchdown, but Thielen was the big-play machine throughout the regular reason. Diggs is likely the safer “floor” pick next year, but Thielen has much more upside with the potential to repeat his 2017 success. Thielen’s 143 targets were 9th best in the NFL this season making it reasonable to conclude that if Keenum returns next year Thielen should be in line for a similarly high number of targets and fantasy production. Diggs on the other hand saw much fewer targets, but his average of 8 catches per touchdown, compared to the league average for wide receivers of 17.7 catches per touchdown (minimum 40 catches and 1 TD) shows his knack for getting in the endzone. Diggs’ ability to get into the endzone secures him as a viable fantasy starter. If Diggs can provide heroics in the NFC Championship with a big game, he will likely be tabbed as the receiver to own in Minnesota next season. However, both should be viewed as top-25 WRs, with Thielen considered the better pick with top-10 upside.
Will Wentz be ready for week 1? The biggest question mark surrounding the Eagles offense in 2018 is the status of Carson Wentz. Wentz went from an elite fantasy play and MVP candidate to out for the season after an ACL injury suffered in The Coliseum in Los Angeles, and the Eagles offense hasn’t been the same since. He and Alshon Jeffery had a lethal connection throughout the season, as Jeffery was the 11th best wide receiver in fantasy when Wentz played. Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor put together their best fantasy seasons of their young careers. While Nick Foles has gotten the job done in the win/loss column, the entire Eagles offense has gone from a fantasy gold mine to a unit to avoid. In the 3 weeks without Wentz, the Eagles offense averaged 259 yards per game, which is over 100 yards less than their season average of 365 yards per game. The lone bright spot has been Jay Ajayi, who has shown that he can be leaned on heavily next year, especially to take some pressure off Wentz as he works back to 100%. If Wentz’s rehab progresses well, Alshon Jeffery is a safe top-15 WR, Nelson Agholor has huge sleeper upside, and Zach Ertz is a sure-fire top-5 TE.
2018 Eagles WR Discussion: New Deep Threat? The emergence of Carson Wentz led to career years for Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz in addition to a huge payday for Alshon Jeffery. While this corps will be around for years to come, there will be some new faces catching passes from Wentz in 2018. Torrey Smith, who was once expected to be a deep threat with fantasy relevance, will likely be released, and Trey Burton (free agent) will find a new home in a starting role. This means the Eagles will need a new deep threat on the outside to compliment Jeffery. Their cap room is limited, which will provide an opportunity for the emergence of 2017 rookie Mack Hollins, a big-bodied WR who has been hyped up by coaches throughout training camp and the season. Although his use throughout the season was limited, his 14.4 yards per catch this season sheds light on his ability to create plays down the field. It will be interesting to watch if the Eagles send Hollins deep at all in the NFC Championship Game, as he could take the top off the stout Vikings defense. Expect Hollins hype to build all offseason, especially if he makes a splash on the national stage against Minnesota.
Edited by Eric Olaya and Ben Schragger