2017 Rookie of the Year Candidates
Our staff takes a look at the top Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates for the 2017 season. Insight, statistics, and projections for the 2018 season are also provided.
ALVIN KAMARA
2017
Statistics: 120 rushes, 728 rushing yards, 8 TD
81 receptions, 826 receiving yards, 5 TD
Fantasy (standard): 233 points
2018
Stat Projection: 195 rushes, 1100 rushing yards, 9 TD
70 receptions, 750 receiving yards, 5 TD
Fantasy Projection: 269 points
Through the first two weeks of the season, Alvin Kamara was a fantasy afterthought. Stuck in a crowded backfield with Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson, he struggled to find a role until a week 3 trade sent Peterson to Arizona. Immediately following his departure, there was clarity in New Orleans, and Kamara became a fantasy superstar. From weeks 3 to 17, he averaged 7.7 yards per touch along with 13 touchdowns. Kamara became the focal point of one of the NFL’s top offenses, shredding teams through the ground and air. The most impressive aspect of Kamara is how he sustained production on such limited touches. This gives fantasy owners plenty to get excited about for 2018 as even though he will still be in a committee with Ingram, there’s no way Sean Payton can avoid giving him more touches. In fact, Payton has already shown favoritism towards Kamara. Kamara received more carries than Mark Ingram Ingram in both playoffs games the Saints played in, along with playing more snaps in the last four games to end the Saints’ season (including playoffs). The fact that Kamara saw the bulk of carries in both playoff games shows that Payton entrusted Kamara to lead the backfield with their season on the line, and it may be an indication that Payton will continue using Kamara at a higher rate than Ingram. Expect him to continue his rookie year success and explode onto the scene as one of the NFL’s biggest stars in 2018.
KAREEM HUNT
2017
Statistics: 272 rushes, 1327 rushing yards, 8 TD
53 receptions, 455 receiving yards, 3 TD
Fantasy: 242 points
2018
Stat Projection: 300 rushes, 1350 rushing yards, 11 TD
59 receptions, 560 receiving yards, 3 TD
Fantasy Projection: 275 points
Week 1 of the 2017 season started off with a bang, as the Chiefs went into New England and stole a victory from the defending champs. This win would have almost been impossible without the outstanding performance by rookie running back Kareem Hunt. Despite a fumble on his first carry of the game, Hunt exploded onto the scene by posting 246 total yards and 3 TDs. Unlike his rookie counterpart Kamara, he was the talk of the fantasy world in the first few weeks. He kept his hot streak going, scoring a TD in each of his next two games, but then went on a 9 week stretch without a TD. While this absence of touchdowns was frustrating for many fantasy owners, it is unlikely that such a streak is repeated next year. Only one other time in the past 10 years has a running back scored 8 or more rushing touchdowns in a season while suffering from a 9 week drought. Though criticism for his dry spell could be placed on Andy Reid and his lack of a consistent workload, Hunt finished the year strong and logged a TD in every week of the fantasy playoffs. He had the 2nd most points in the fantasy playoffs among running backs, averaging 23 points per game. Hunt will continue to be the lead back in a young Chiefs offense that is expected to explode with Patrick Mahomes under center. Expect Hunt to continue with his rookie year success and battle Kamara for the league’s top young back.
Leonard Fournette
2017
Statistics (13 games): 268 rushes, 1040 rushing yards, 9 TD
36 receptions, 302 receiving yards, 1 TD
Fantasy: 194 points
2018
Stat Projection: 310 rushes, 1,400 rushing yards, 12 TD
45 receptions, 350 receiving yards, 2 TD
Fantasy Projection: 259 points
Despite being hampered by nagging injuries all season long, Fournette played in 13 games and eclipsed the 1000-yard rushing mark, turning in 9 touchdowns. What makes Fournette special is his versatility as he can run between the tackles in goal line situations, catch the ball out of the backfield, and can break away from defenders to gain chunk yardage. This was displayed when he ripped off a 90-yard run against the Steelers in week 5, capping off a 2 touchdown, 181 yard performance. “Lenny” had 36 receptions for 302 yards receiving in 2018, and for as long as Blake Bortles is the quarterback in Jacksonville, this number is only expected to increase. The offensive line in Jacksonville was also one of the best in the league, proven by the fact that Jacksonville allowed the third least sacks in the league. This line was definitely a major factor in helping produce the league’s best rushing offense, an accomplishment this offense will look to achieve again next year by leaning on Fournette early and often. In a league where the running back-by-committee approach is used more and more, Fournette proved this year that he is capable of being a workhorse, every-down back. The sky's the limit for Fournette in 2018.
Deshaun Watson
2017
Statistics (7 games): 1,699 yards (passing), 19 TD (passing), 8 INT, 81.5 QBR
36 rushes, 269 yards (rushing), 2 TD (rushing)
Fantasy: 173 points
2018
Stat Projection: 4,500 yards (passing), 30 TD (passing), 15 INT, 85 QBR
90 rushes, 750 yards (rushing), 5 TD (rushing)
Fantasy Projection: 375 points
It was week 7. Deshaun Watson had just torched the Legion of Boom for 450+ total yards. He was improving every week to that point, and it looked like he was about to run away with the Rookie of the Year Award despite the talented rookie class. Unfortunately, his season came to a screeching halt when he tore his ACL in practice. In 6.5 games, Watson passed for 1700 yards along with 19 touchdowns. Comparing Watson’s shortened rookie season to the first seven games of other notable rookie seasons, as shown in the graph below, it is clear that Watson was on pace to have one of the best rookie seasons ever. Not only did Watson’s 19 passing TDs in 7 games wildly outperform comparable rookie seasons, they marked a league-high this season through 7 games for any quarterback. As if his ability to throw the football downfield to the likes of Deandre Hopkins and Will Fuller wasn’t enough, Watson added 300 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns on the ground. Despite the small sample size, Watson’s upside was evident. We have every reason to believe he will come back stronger than ever in 2018 as an elite dual threat fantasy option.
Edited by Eric Olaya and Ben Schragger