2018 Free Agency Predictions
With the start of free agency quickly approaching (March 14), we analyze the top free agents available at each fantasy-relevant position.
Destination predictions and fantasy “winners” are included.
QUARTERBACKS
1. Kirk Cousins
2. Case Keenum
3. Drew Brees
Kirk Cousins
2017 Team: Washington Redskins
2018 Prediction: Denver Broncos
Fantasy Winner(s): Kirk Cousins, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders
With the Redskins trading for veteran Alex Smith, there is little-to-no chance for a Cousins return to Washington. Cousins is drawing interest across the league, Minnesota being the de facto front runner. However, we take the contrarian view here and believe the stars will align for Denver, a team that is a quarterback away from being a Super Bowl contender. They have plenty of cap space, a plethora of offensive weapons, and a defensive unit that should return to elite status in 2018. This move would catapult Cousins to the second tier of fantasy QBs, among Wentz, Watson, and Newton. Kirk Cousins has passed for over 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns three years in a row, and it would be foolish to think that Cousins can’t at least repeat this production with two solid wide receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. With Cousins at quarterback, these two receivers could approach the production levels from 2014-15 with Peyton Manning at the helm, with Thomas as a WR1 and Sanders as a high-floor WR2. Make the call, John Elway, for the sake of your franchise (and the fantasy community won’t complain).
Case Keenum
2017 Team: Minnesota Vikings
2018 Prediction: Arizona Cardinals
Fantasy Winner(s): Larry Fitzgerald, Ricky Seals-Jones
Remaining in Minnesota is unlikely due to an asking price outweighing his value, with the Vikings potentially rolling with Sam Bradford or Teddy Bridgewater at QB. This is fine for fantasy owners, as despite turning in the best season of his career in 2017, he was only fantasy’s QB14. While Diggs and Thielen excelled with Keenum under center, they both did well in 2016, when healthy, with Bradford at QB. A sneaky destination for Keenum is Arizona, as Carson Palmer retired and the Cardinals don’t view Blaine Gabbert as a franchise QB. The offense in the desert will still go through David Johnson, so Keenum is a low-upside fantasy QB. However, solidifying a QB helps career-Cardinal Larry Fitzgerald, who continues to turn in WR1 seasons in PPR year-after-year. 2018 breakout candidate Ricky Seals-Jones could leap into TE1 conversation with the addition of Keenum, as Keenum helped Kyle Rudolph finish 2017 as TE6.
Drew Brees
2017 Team: New Orleans Saints
2018 Prediction: New Orleans Saints
Fantasy Winner(s): the entire Saints offense
Approaching his age 39 season, Drew Brees remains an elite NFL QB, although his fantasy production has been declining in the past few years. Though it is fun to entertain the idea of him going elsewhere, expect him to re-sign with New Orleans. Staying in the Big Easy allows offensive-guru Sean Payton to utilize Brees to tear up defenses in the NFC South. Drew Brees finished as the 9th best QB in 2017 following an unbelievable 11-year streak of finishing as a top 6 fantasy QB. While this may indicate Brees level of play declining, this was only due to the Saints offense relying more on the rushing attack. Brees at QB not only benefits the fantasy value of pass catchers like Michael Thomas and speedster Ted Ginn Jr., but it also helps open up holes with the 1-2 RB punch of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Payton found a way to take some weight off the back of Brees by relying on Ingram and Kamara in 2017, proving that the Saints offense led by Brees can support two RB1s and a WR1 (Thomas).
RUNNING BACKS
1. Le’Veon Bell
2. Jerick McKinnon
3. Frank Gore
4. Carlos Hyde
5. Dion Lewis
6. Rex Burkhead
7. LeGarrette Blount
Le’Veon Bell
2017 Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
2018 Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers
Fantasy Winner(s): Le’Veon Bell, Ben Roethlisberger
A top 3 fantasy RB and our 2018 pick for RB1, Bell is deservedly being hyped as the top free agent on the market. Although there is a slight chance Bell hits the market, it just doesn’t seem logical for the Steelers to allow Bell to seek other offers. Whether the Steelers place the franchise tag on Bell or give him a huge offer, the odds are that Bell returns to the Steel City. Ever since his career began, Bell has been an elite fantasy RB, a role which he will still have when he returns to Pittsburgh in 2018. Obviously, this move secures Bell’s value as a top tier RB, but it also helps Ben Roethlisberger’s value tremendously. 35-year-old Big Ben still slings the pigskin downfield but he benefitted greatly in 2017 from dump offs to Bell that were turned into 20+ yard receptions. In fact, Bell averaged 7.7 yards per reception, snagging 5.7 catches a game.
Jerick McKinnon
2017 Team: Minnesota Vikings
2018 Prediction: New York Giants
Fantasy Winner(s): Jerick McKinnon, Odell Beckham Jr., Evan Engram
Despite never receiving the full load (splitting with Matt Asiata in 2016 and Dalvin Cook/Latavius Murray in 2017), McKinnon showed top tier athleticism on his way to finishing the past two years as fantasy’s RB31 and RB24, respectively. Towards the end of his 2017 campaign, McKinnon said that he’d like the opportunity to be a bell cow in a different offense. A perfect fit is the New York Giants, where his former Offensive Coordinator Pat Shurmur is now the head coach. The Giants have tried, unsuccessfully, to split RB workload in the past few years, so McKinnon would be perfect to change things up and provide a three-down RB for NYG. While McKinnon’s rushing ability isn’t elite (3.8 YPC in 2017), his 421 receiving yards shows that he can truly make a difference as a dual-threat RB. The addition of McKinnon would hurt the fantasy value of popular sleeper RBs Wayne Gallman and Orleans Darkwa, but it would make McKinnon a top 20 RB with low-end RB1 upside. It would also make things easier for the aging arm of Eli Manning, allowing him to get the ball to Odell Beckham and Evan Engram without facing constant pressure from defensive fronts.
Frank Gore
2017 Team: Indianapolis Colts
2018 Prediction: New England Patriots
Fantasy Winner(s): Marlon Mack
The ageless Frank Gore somehow continues to produce top 30 RB fantasy points despite the naysayers each year. With the Colts phasing in Marlon Mack towards the end of 2017, it appears they are ready to turn the page to a younger, more explosive back. This means Gore will be available on the free agency market, where he will likely sign with a Super Bowl contender for a discounted rate. The Patriots are a perfect fit, as they are unlikely to re-sign a few of their RBs, with the coveted goal-line role (see LeGarrette Blount: 2016 fantasy production) up for grabs. Expect Gore to sign a veteran’s minimum deal in New England, chasing a Super Bowl ring to solidify his Hall of Fame resume. However, this will be the year that Gore fails to produce for fantasy owners, with Belichick using Gore too sporadically to be relied on in fantasy. It was just last year that many experts believed Mike Gillislee or Rex Burkhead would be the players to lead the Patriots backfield, but due to injuries and underwhelming play it was Dion Lewis who was the most consistent source of production. While Gore has been outstanding throughout his career, the unpredictability of the Patriots’ backfield suggests that Gore may not be as solid of a fantasy play compared to years past.
Carlos Hyde
2017 Team: San Francisco 49ers
2018 Prediction: San Francisco 49ers
Fantasy Winner(s): Carlos Hyde
Despite failing to reach the 1,000 rushing-yard mark in 2017, Hyde still finished as fantasy’s RB11. This finish makes it two years in a row that Hyde has finished as a top 15 RB, and in 2015 he was producing as a top 15 RB before he got injured in week 7. Other than Hyde, only Leveon Bell, Devonta Freeman, and Mark Ingram have been top 15 rushers during this same time span. The Niners tried using Matt Breida last season Hyde proved the superior option. Now that the 49ers re-signed Jimmy Garoppolo to a long-term deal, it would make sense for Hyde to stay in San Francisco. “Jimmy G” seems like the real deal, and a bell-cow RB in an offense with a top QB is fantasy gold, providing many red zone opportunities and holes up the middle. While Hyde averaged around the same number of rushing yards with Garoppolo at QB as compared to earlier in the season without Garoppolo (59.8 yards to 58.1), Hyde got into the endzone at a much higher rate, scoring 4 TDs in 5 games with Garoppolo with his other 4 TDs scored in the other 11 games. Hyde would move into our top 15 of RBs if he stays on the West Coast, as the bulk of carries in an up-and-coming offense would allow him to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark and provide fantasy value week after week.
Dion Lewis
2017 Team: New England Patriots
2018 Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers
Fantasy Winner(s): Dion Lewis, Melvin Gordon
Two years removed from ACL surgery, Dion Lewis popped onto fantasy radars with an impressive 2017 season, finishing as RB12. Lewis hits free agency coming off his best season to date, one in which he proved that despite his size, he could both run between the tackles and catch passes out of the backfield. Lewis will head to a team in need of a change of pace back, and the Los Angeles Chargers seem to be a good fit. While the Chargers do have a bell cow RB in Melvin Gordon, Philip Rivers and company could use an elusive pass-catching RB. Austin Ekeler showed signs of upside in this role in 2017, but he isn’t a long-term solution to the missing Danny Woodhead role. Place Lewis in the Woodhead role and he’ll excel, returning huge fantasy dividends in PPR leagues and RB3/FLEX value in standard leagues. Dion Lewis posted a 91.4% catch rate in 2017 (32 receptions on 35 targets) proving he is one of the game’s best receiving backs, and his 4.8 YPC in 2017 was third only to Alvin Kamara and Kenyan Drake, showing that he can also sustain fantasy success despite fewer rushing attempts. This would also keep Melvin Gordon fresh ala Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara in 2017, increasing his efficiency and helping him remain an RB1 throughout 2018.
Rex Burkhead
2017 Team: New England Patriots
2018 Prediction: Seattle Seahawks
Fantasy Winner(s): Rex Burkhead
Rex Burkhead is a fantasy-community favorite, exceeding most people’s expectations in limited opportunities in Cincinnati and New England as both a runner and pass-catcher. He is expected to depart from New England and, like Dion Lewis, would be a good fit for a team in need of a sure-handed, consistent RB. Seattle is in desperate need for exactly that, as they used 6 RBs in 2017, with their QB Russell Wilson leading the team in rushing by over 300 yards (586 yards total). Without a capable leading rusher, Seattle had difficulty closing out games in 2017, especially since only 1 rushing touchdown came from a Seattle running back (J.D. McKissic). Considering Burkhead finished his regular season campaign with 6 touchdowns in 4 games before getting injured in week 14, it appears he is a perfect solution to a problem Seattle has had since Marshawn Lynch retired. In Seattle, Burkhead could log a ton of snaps with Pete Carroll preferring a pass-catching RB on the field alongside the elusive Wilson. Burkhead will be a popular sleeper pick, drafted as an RB3 or RB4 with top 15 upside.
LeGarrette Blount
2017 Team: Philadelphia Eagles
2018 Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fantasy Winner(s): Jay Ajayi, Corey Clement
At age 31, running backs typically are looked past in free agency, commonly receiving offers of the veteran’s minimum. However, Blount is not your typical RB, coming off the two best years of his career and two Super Bowl victories. The Eagles are high on Jay Ajayi and youngster Corey Clement, so they will let Blount walk in free agency. With the Tampa Bay Buccaneers recently releasing Doug Martin, they’re positioned to sign a power RB like Blount. Blount spent three years in Tampa, but he is a different runner now with a nose for the end zone. The Bucs won’t lean too heavily on Blount due to his running style and age, so he will be a touchdown-dependent fantasy option. Blount may have only scored two rushing touchdowns last year, but this can be explained by the effectiveness of Carson Wentz in the red zone as well as Blount falling out of the regular rotation with the addition of Jay Ajayi. In Tampa, Blount would be relied on as the sole goal-line specialist, but don’t be surprised if the Buccaneers draft another rusher like Sony Michel or Ronald Jones to complement Blount’s skill set. Blount could go 4 weeks in Tampa without scoring, but could easily follow that stretch up with 4 TDs in two weeks.
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Sammy Watkins
2. Allen Robinson
3. Marqise Lee
4. Paul Richardson
5. Terrelle Pryor
Sammy Watkins
2017 Team: Los Angeles Rams
2018 Prediction: Carolina Panthers
Fantasy Winner(s): Sammy Watkins, Cam Newton
2017 was a huge disappointment for Watkins, only catching 39 passes for 593 yards, despite the success of the Rams passing attack. With the emergence of Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, it wouldn’t make sense for the Rams to keep Watkins. A good spot for Watkins to revitalize his career would be Carolina, where he could be a focal point of the offense. He wouldn’t be the first WR to sign with the Panthers to revitalize his career (Steve Smith Sr., Ted Ginn Jr.). Outside of Christian McCaffery and Devin Funchess, Cam Newton had difficulty finding a reliable option in the passing game, and Watkins could fill this void that receivers Russell Shepard and Curtis Samuel failed to do (17 and 15 catches in 2017, respectively). This landing spot would be key for Watkins’ fantasy value, as he would be a reliable WR2 with Cam Newton throwing him the rock. Also, Newton would rise to a top 5 QB as Watkins’ combination of size and speed lined up opposite Devin Funchess provides immense upside in the passing game.
Allen Robinson
2017 Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
2018 Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars
Fantasy Winner(s): Allen Robinson, Blake Bortles
Allen Robinson tore his ACL in the first game in 2017, so, unfortunately, he was unable to contribute to the Jaguars’ breakout season. The 24-year-old is expected to be 100% healthy by week one, making him a top WR on the market with tons of upside. A deep threat and red zone monster, there’s no reason for the emerging Jaguars to let Robinson walk. A one year “prove it” deal for him to stay in Jacksonville is likely, which locks “A-Rob” in as a top 25 WR. In both 2015 and 2016 Robinson saw 151 targets from Bortles, suggesting that Bortles trusts his ability to make plays. Assuming Robinson returns as the top WR in Jacksonville, he should see about the same number of targets, making him a fantasy option with both a high floor and a high ceiling. This helps Blake Bortles’ value as well, as he turned in QB4 and QB10 finishes with Robinson, and dropped to QB13 in 2017 without Robinson. Bortles will be drafted at the end of drafts but could provide huge value in QB depth for a roster. This also would help super-sleeper Keelan Cole, who finished 2017 as WR45 despite only starting 6 games, each of which he was still the #2 WR (behind Lee, Westbrook).
Marqise Lee
2017 Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
2018 Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs
Fantasy Winner(s): Marqise Lee, Patrick Mahomes
With the expectation that Allen Robinson will remain in Jacksonville, Lee appears to be the odds man out. Lee proved to be a sure-handed WR with big play ability throughout the 2017 season, showing sparks of WR1 potential. He will produce even better settling into a WR2 role in an offense with a big-armed QB. Look no further than Kansas City, as the Chiefs lack a WR2 and will unleash Patrick Mahomes in 2018. Expect them to make a push for this reliable WR to go with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Lee would be draftable as a Chief, falling off draft boards late with top 20 upside. The addition of Lee would boost Mahomes’ value as well, completing his arsenal of weapons, as he already has a deep threat and red zone target.
Paul Richardson
2017 Team: Seattle Seahawks
2018 Prediction: Chicago Bears
Fantasy Winner(s): Tyler Lockett
After a few injury riddled seasons, Richardson broke out in 2018, enjoying a career year heading into free agency. Richardson will be asking for $6-7 million a year, which is out of Seattle’s price range. While we don’t think he’s that valuable, a WR-desperate team like the Chicago Bears might be willing to cash out that money for a 1 to 3-year deal. Unfortunately, heading to Chicago is a black hole for Richardson’s fantasy value, as small-armed, inaccurate Mitch Trubisky struggles to throw passes past 10 yards. Meanwhile, Richardson’s 16 yards per reception in 2017 were 9th highest in the NFL, suggesting that he might not fare well with Trubisky at QB. Unless Trubisky bounces back in 2018, Richardson would be undraftable in standard leagues. The only winner here is Tyler Lockett, who has shown sparks of upside when he was the true WR2 in Seattle. Lockett would be draftable towards the end of drafts in 2018, with the potential to start in the FLEX position.
Terrelle Pryor
2017 Team: Washington Redskins
2018 Prediction: Seattle Seahawks
Fantasy Winner(s): None
Pryor was undoubtedly the biggest bust in 2017, drafted as a top 20 WR but totally just 30 fantasy points on the year (WR112). Fresh off a 1,000-yard season in Cleveland, he was bound to continue his breakout in Washington with Kirk Cousins under center…right? Wrong. Pryor was hampered by injuries and butterfingers all year long. He is in desperate need of a new home, and Seattle would be a perfect fit. With the Seahawks unlikely to keep Paul Richardson, they will be looking for a big-bodied WR to line up with Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett. If Pryor can stay away from the popcorn and injury bug in 2018, he could be in for a bounce-back season. He might go undrafted in many fantasy leagues, but with low expectations he could be a sneaky late-round pick.
TIGHT ENDS
1. Jimmy Graham
2. Tyler Eifert
3. Trey Burton
Jimmy Graham
2017 Team: Seattle Seahawks
2018 Prediction: New Orleans Saints
Fantasy Winner(s): Jimmy Graham, Drew Brees
After a frustrating end to 2017, Jimmy Graham and the Seahawks are expected to part ways. It only seems right that Graham reunite with Drew Brees, returning to the Superdome where Graham’s career began. Seattle never really figured out how to use Graham’s talent while Drew Brees took full advantage of it. From 2011-2014, Jimmy Graham averaged 137.75 targets per year as Brees made a conscious effort to get the ball to the talented Jimmy Graham as often as he could. On the other hand, the Seahawks struggled creating a game plan to get the ball to Graham, as his 96 targets this year were not only highest among Graham’s 3 years in Seattle but were still fewer than targets received by less talented tight ends like Delanie Walker (111) and Jack Doyle (108). The Saints are a tight end away from a complete offense, as Josh Hill and Coby Fleener haven’t lived up to expectations. Should this happen, the argument from years past could return: does the best fantasy TE play for New Orleans or New England. Obviously, this would bump Graham’s value, but it would also help Drew Brees. In 2017, Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara led the team in TD catches (5), and neither player is considered a typical red zone receiver. The addition of Graham would cause the Saints to throw more in the red zone, increasing Drew Brees’ TD total and boosting his value.
Tyler Eifert
2017 Team: Cincinnati Bengals
2018 Prediction: Baltimore Ravens
Fantasy Winner(s): Tyler Eifert
Since his dominant 13 touchdown-campaign in 2015, Eifert has totaled 440 yards and 5 TDs.
This can be attributed to the Bengals’ misuse of Eifert as well as his chronic injuries. The best fit for Eifert is his old division rival Baltimore Ravens, a team with a scheme and QB that historically picks defenses apart by using a receiving tight end. The last decent TE on the Ravens was Dennis Pitta, who totaled 86 catches in 2016 despite average athleticism and being a “dad runner”. Eifert is more talented and athletic, so expectations should be sky high if Eifert lands in Baltimore (and can stay healthy). Eifert would be draftable as a top 10 TE, and even though he would help increase the Ravens’ red zone efficiency, he isn’t a big enough factor to make Joe Flacco fantasy relevant.
Trey Burton
2017 Team: Philadelphia Eagles
2018 Prediction: Chicago Bears
Fantasy Winner(s): Trey Burton
Burton is one of the NFL’s hidden gems, stuck behind red zone target Zach Ertz and lifetime-Eagle Brent Celek on the Philadelphia depth chart. When both TEs above him were hurt in week 13 in Seattle, Burton caught 5 passes for 71 yards and 2 touchdowns, displaying advanced separation ability and sneaky speed. Entering free agency for the first time, expect Burton to leave Philly chasing a full-time role. His 5 touchdowns this year set a career high, and doing so on only 31 targets (half of what he received the year before) indicates that he is effective getting into the end zone. This is the exact type of efficiency that the Bears so desperately need from their receivers. The Chicago Bears are desperate to provide weapons to second-year QB Mitchell Trubisky, who struggled throwing in 2017 due to unreliable TEs Dion Sims and Adam Shaheen. Young QBs often need to rely heavily on their TE as a security blanket, a role in which Burton would excel in. In Chicago, Burton would be draftable in standard fantasy leagues as a low-end TE1, and who knows, he may even throw a touchdown pass or two for bonus fantasy points.
Edited by: Ben Schragger and Eric Olaya