From Breakout to Bust: Adam Thielen

After a 2017 campaign in which Adam Thielen put up 149 fantasy points, securing 91 catches for 1276 yards and 4 TDs, it might be crazy to think that he will not be a top 20 fantasy WR in 2018. However, for a few reasons, it is very unlikely that he will replicate his 2017 success, and I have him ranked as my #30 WR in 2018. First of all, last year the Vikings were forced to throw the ball more than normal after an injury to rookie RB Dalvin Cook. 3rd stringer Case Keenum sparked Thielen’s hot streak, as Pat Shurmur’s slot-heavy offense provided many opportunities for him. The biggest issue here is that both Keenum and Shurmur are gone. Dalvin Cook is healthy and will serve as the focal point of the offense, with Kirk Cousins spreading the ball in passing scenarios.

While Cousins will likely rely on Thielen, Stefon Diggs, and Kyle Rudolph equally early in the year, Diggs will emerge as his favorite target, with a superb ability to get down field and pick up yards after the catch. Even worse for Thielen, Kirk Cousins loves to feed his tight ends and scat backs. With the Redskins last year, Chris Thompson, Vernon Davis, Ryan Grant, and Jordan Reed combined for 223 targets, while the top WR Josh Doctson had just 78. While Thielen should be able to eclipse the 78 target mark, a reasonable expectation for Thielen should be a repeat of his 2016 performance, when he finished with 69 catches and fell 33 yards short of 1,000 yards, not serving as a viable fantasy option.

Even a slight uptick from 2016 would still make it difficult for Thielen to provide WR2 value. The moral of the story: avoid Thielen at his current price point, as you will end up disappointed.