Backfield Clarity for all 32 Teams: AFC West
It’s 2018. If you’re reading this, you probably thought that by now there would be a reliable method to predict backfields, and yet, there’s arguably more uncertainty than ever. Luckily, this series of articles will “do the dirty work” and take a dive into each team’s backfield, providing you with the insider information you need to dominate your fantasy league.
Previous Articles:
AFC WEST- Kareem "Hunt"-ing for the Next Rookie Star
Chiefs
When returning starter Spencer Ware tore his PCL prior to last season, the running back position was a major question mark for Andy Reid. That was before “diamond in the rough” rookie Kareem Hunt rumbled for 250 yards from scrimmage and 3 touchdowns against the defending champs, and finished the season as the league’s leading rusher. Now, one year later, the RB position is arguably the team’s greatest strength.
However, upon a deeper dive into Hunt’s numbers, they are actually extremely deceiving. Despite finishing the season as the third ranked running back in fantasy, he only posted 4 weeks with RB1 production levels. In fact, from weeks 4-13, Hunt almost mirrored the production of an RB2! Hunt’s production in spurts left fantasy owners slightly frustrated, although no one can complain about his final stat line. The return of Spencer Ware, who is an accomplished back in his own right, could only add to this worry. Hunt will enter 2018 as an RB1 for good reason (our experts have him ranked at #9), but owners should be cautious about a potential sophomore slump.
1. Kareem Hunt (ADP 9)- RB1
2. Spencer Ware (Undrafted)- Must own handcuff
3. Charcandrick West (Undrafted)- Not worth a bench spot (barring injury to Hunt or Ware)
Figure 1: Comparing Kareem Hunt's production (yellow) to that of the average RB1 (blue), RB2 (orange), and RB1 (gray). *Note: Hunt had a bye week 10. Figure courtesy of Sean Greener.
Chargers
In 2017, Melvin Gordon had his best year as a pro, posting career bests in rushing (1,105) and receiving (476) yards. He was also able to play in all 16 games for the first time in his career, proving his durability. Although Austin Ekeler served in the “Danny Woodhead role” towards the end of the season, he struggled holding onto the football in key moments and will not be a threat to Gordon’s fantasy outlook for 2018. Rookie Justin Jackson, who was drafted in the seventh round by the Chargers, is also not a cause for concern amongst owners, as he will need to become stronger before given a shot at a starting position in the NFL.
1. Melvin Gordon (ADP 9)- RB1
2. Austin Ekeler (Undrafted)- RB4
3. Justin Jackson (Undrafted)- Not worth a bench spot
Raiders
Despite Marshawn Lynch entering his age 32 season and Doug Martin’s struggles both on and off the field, the Raiders’ comfort in the position (judging by the fact that they opted not to draft a RB) is certainly unprecedented. Lynch’s age, combined with the fact that Coach Gruden has only had two running backs surpass the 1,000 yard mark in his 11 year coaching career, does not equate to fantasy production. This is shaping up to be a potential 3-headed committee when Jalen Richard is factored into the equation. Overall, Lynch will be the “starting back”, but it’s best to stay away from the entire Raiders backfield, if possible.
1. Marshawn Lynch (ADP 79)- RB3
2. Doug Martin (Undrafted)- Worth a bench spot
3. Jalen Richard (Undrafted)- Not worth a bench spot
Broncos
The Broncos would not have released 1,000+ yard rusher C.J. Anderson if they were not confident in Devontae Booker or third round pick Royce Freeman. As of now, it is unknown whether the Broncos will have a workhorse running back or deploy a committee approach. One thing, however, is for certain: Freeman will be given the opportunity to compete for the starting gig. Despite not being the main topic of discussion in such a deep class of running backs, Freeman showed in college that he has the durability and talent necessary to perform at the next level, racking up over 1,000 touches and 64 touchdowns in 51 college games. He just may be the latest rookie back to follow in the footsteps of the likes of Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara, and Leonard Fournette. Despite Freeman's potential, Devontae Booker has been given the first reps at the start of camp and is a much better draft-day bargain, given that he is being drafted 50 picks later.
1a. Devontae Booker (ADP 128)- RB3
1b. Royce Freeman (ADP 79)- RB3