BUYER BEWARE: 3 RBs Bound for TD Regression

The best feeling on game day during the fantasy football season is when one of your players scores a touchdown. At the end of the year, a few players asserted themselves as reliable options to score a touchdown when most needed. That being said, here are 3 of those running backs from last year who will NOT get as many touchdowns as they did last year.

Todd Gurley (RB, Los Angeles Rams)

While Todd Gurley won many people their fantasy football championships with a stellar 39.6 points in Week 16, it is almost certain that his fantasy numbers will see a drop this year. This isn’t anything against Todd Gurley, but instead an affirmation from data over the years.

Todd Gurley finished with the most touchdowns among running backs last year with 19. Over the past 10 years, 17 other running backs finished with more than 15 total touchdowns, but none of them finished with 15 in the following year. The odds are against Gurley to score as many times as he did last year, but still expect him to finish as a top 5 RB.

Mark Ingram (RB, New Orleans Saints)

Many people have been waiting for Mark Ingram to break out in the NFL, and last year it finally seemed like he did, setting career highs in rushes, yards, and touchdowns. His 12 touchdowns gave fantasy owners a total of 72 fantasy points throughout the season, but don’t expect him to score nearly as many touchdowns this year.

The reasoning behind this prediction might seem obvious, as he is suspended for 4 games to start the season, but that’s not all. Alvin Kamara broke out in even greater fashion last year, and don’t be surprised if the Saints decide to stick with Kamara even when Ingram comes back. Ingram may seem like a mid-round steal due to his suspension, but temper any expectations of him scoring at the same rate as he did last year.

Carlos Hyde (RB, Cleveland Browns)

There was a lot of reason to be excited about Carlos Hyde for this season, as he finished last season with 4 touchdowns in 4 games with Jimmy Garoppolo. But then Hyde was traded to the Browns.

While the Browns should have a better offense this year than in years past, that doesn’t mean Hyde will have another 8 TD year. With the Browns drafting a similar, big-bodied RB Nick Chubb, it’s clear that Hyde will be conceding a lot of time and opportunities to Chubb. Don’t expect Carlos Hyde to be a consistent scorer this year like he was at the end of last year.