BUYER BEWARE: 3 WRs Bound for TD Regression
The best feeling on game day during the fantasy football season is when one of your players scores a touchdown. At the end of the year, a few players asserted themselves as reliable options to score a touchdown when most needed. That being said, here are 3 of those wide receivers from last year who will NOT get as many touchdowns as they did last year.
Jarvis Landry (WR, Cleveland Browns)
Tied for 3rd in receiving touchdowns last year with Antonio Brown, Alshon Jeffery, and Marvin Jones Jr., Jarvis Landry set a career high with 9 TDs. While this was a great accomplishment on Landry’s part, it is important to keep in mind that this total is more than both of his previous two years combined (8).
Upon further analysis, it becomes clear that last year Landry took advantage of a situation where he was the only reliable target for an seasoned quarterback in Jay Cutler. In Cleveland, Landry is neither the only reliable target nor does he have an experienced QB. Josh Gordon and David Njoku will most likely be preferred red zone targets due to their size, and it's expected that Landry sees a drop from his 160 targets (4th in the league in 2017) with additional talent around him. Last year, Landry finished as the 14th ranked WR, but due to the likelihood that last season’s TD total is an outlier, he should only be considered as a top 25 WR.
Devin Funchess (WR, Carolina Panthers)
Unlike Landry, Funchess measures up to be your typical red zone threat, standing at 6’4” and weighing 225 lbs. He broke out in his third year, setting career highs in catches (63), catch percentage (56.8%) and touchdowns (8), finishing as WR21 in fantasy. Despite being career highs, these stats seem a bit underwhelming from a former 2nd round pick in a season where the Panthers' #1 receiver was traded, one of the league’s best tight ends in Greg Olsen went down with injury, and the Panthers failed miserably in finding a suitable second wide receiver option. With all the opportunity in the world, Funchess put up average numbers and showed that he can’t be counted on as a reliable #1 option, finishing with four games under 25 yards compared to only one game over 100 yards.
Funchess saw a ton of targets (113) come his way in 2017, but with Greg Olsen’s recovery from injury, Christian McCaffery’s improvement, and D.J Moore’s addition through the draft, expect this number to fall. Because of this, also expect a drop from his touchdown total in 2017.
Nelson Agholor (WR, Philadelphia Eagles)
Agholor became a fan favorite of the Super Bowl Champions due to his break out year (62 catches, 768 yards, 8 touchdowns) after many labeled him a bust. But even the most faithful Eagles fans can’t deny that his break out year was triggered by Torrey Smith’s ineffectiveness as the team’s deep threat, making Agholor the WR2 of the offense by default. In the offseason, the Eagles got a significant upgrade from Torrey Smith in Mike Wallace.
Wallace could be one of the best steals in the late rounds of fantasy drafts, as he is only a year removed from a 1,000 yard season and is now in an offense led by Carson Wentz who loves to throw the ball deep (he’s very good at it too). Wentz’s tendency to throw the ball deep would raise the question as to why Torrey Smith didn’t do well in this offense, but simply put, Mike Wallace does exactly what Torrey Smith can do but he’s been doing it better for a longer time.
Nelson Agholor has proven that he has the talent to play in this league, but considering that Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz are still the top options in this offense and that Mike Wallace should have more success than Torrey Smith did as the team’s deep threat, it should be expected that Agholor should see a drop in targets and consequently a drop in touchdowns.