BUYER BEWARE: 3 QBs Bound for Regression
The best feeling on game day during the fantasy football season is when one of your players scores a touchdown. At the end of the year, a few players asserted themselves as reliable options to score a touchdown when most needed. That being said, here are 3 of those quarterbacks from last year who will NOT score many touchdowns as they did last year.
Russell Wilson (QB, Seattle Seahawks)
Russell Wilson didn’t just finish as the best overall quarterback in fantasy last year, but he dominated, scoring nearly 50 more points than the 2nd best quarterback. His 34 passing touchdowns tied a career high and his 37 total TDs set a new career high, but Wilson shouldn’t reach this total again in 2018.
The main reasoning behind this statement can be explained by the statistical anomaly observed in the Seattle Seahawks offense. Throughout the entire year, the Seahawks’ offense only scored 1 rushing TD by a player not named Russell Wilson. That is extremely unlikely to happen again, especially considering the Seahawks addressed their rushing issue by drafting Rashaad Penny in the first round.
Wilson also lost TE Jimmy Graham in the offseason. Graham served as Wilson’s most reliable red zone target in 2017, grabbing a total of 10 passes for touchdowns. While Wilson should still be considered a top 10 QB with top 5 upside, don’t expect him to lead the league in touchdown passes again.
Alex Smith (QB, Washington Redskins)
Like Wilson, Alex Smith also had a career year in 2017, setting new highs in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and passer rating. Last years’ regular season performance finally got people thinking that Smith may be a legitimate fantasy QB rather than just a “game-manager” (his performance against the Titans in the playoffs indicated otherwise). The below should convince any of these Smith believers otherwise.
There is no denying that Smith had a great year; he finished as the 4th best QB in standard scoring leagues. But there’s also no denying that he was surrounded by arguably the best tight end in the league, a borderline top 10 WR in Tyreek Hill, and a Pro Bowl running back in Kareem Hunt. The Redskins, on the other hand, have a collection skill position players that are either talented but often injured or hyped but have yet to do anything significant in the NFL.
Diving deeper, it’s easy to see that Smith’s fantasy output last year was inflated by a couple remarkable games. In fact, Smith had more games with 0 or 1 passing touchdown than games with 2+ passing touchdowns, showing that he had more games playing like a game manager than a fantasy stud. Despite being the 4th best QB last year, Smith should only be considered a solid bench QB in 2018.
Deshaun Watson (QB, Houston Texans)
Deshaun Watson may seem like a questionable addition to this list, considering he finished the year with 19 passing touchdowns, but he did this in only 7 games as a rookie. For the sake of this argument consider this statement: Watson will not score touchdowns at the same rate he did last year.
But many experts seem to believe Watson will continue his hot streak. A combination of 33 experts’ rankings done by FantasyPros has Watson ranked as the 4th best quarterback, just behind Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Russell Wilson. On the surface this seems like a suitable ranking considering that Watson was the 2nd best fantasy QB before getting injured, but the rate of touchdown passes he threw last year is simply unsustainable. Watson had a TD% of 9.3% (touchdowns thrown/passes thrown), which is remarkable considering the last time this was done over a full season was when Peyton Manning had a 9.9 TD% in 2004.
Also considering the fact that defenses will have a whole offseason to go over Watson’s game tape, it becomes evident that he was not only in an ideal position to succeed as a rookie, but also performed at what should be considered his fantasy ceiling. Despite this, experts are still ranking him like he will continue to produce at this near-unrepeatable level. Watson will probably finish as a low end top 10 QB, but there are players who are safer picks with a better chance of finishing as a top 5 QB ranked below him.