Tom Brady Headlines Over-Drafted Players Entering 2018
With OTA’s underway, it is finally starting to feel like fantasy football draft season. With this spirit in mind, it’s worth noting players who are being overvalued in comparison to their current ADP so you are able to get the most value possible for each of your picks on draft day.
Overrated
QB: Tom Brady (ADP 46, QB2)
Analysis: Tom Brady was the league’s MVP in 2017 and is deservingly the 2nd ranked quarterback entering 2018. However, upon further analysis it is apparent that his high price tag is not worth it. Last season, less than 25 fantasy points separated Brady from the 8th ranked QB (Phillip Rivers), and 45 points separated him from the 13th ranked QB (Blake Bortles). Rivers and Bortles posted just 1.5 and 2.6 less points per week, respectively. Current ADP projections show a difference of 60 picks between Brady and Rivers, and 120 picks between Brady and Bortles!
Alternatively, you could draft Alex Smith, who had the same number of fantasy points as Brady in one less game played and is being drafted 80 picks later! Drafting a QB like Smith allows early picks to be spent on high-upside RBs and WRs, while gaining similar returns from the QB position. What’s more is that Brady averaged just 12 fantasy points per game over the last five weeks of the season, not doing any favors for owners trying to make the playoffs and win a championship. Brady could very well have another MVP season in 2018, but there are a plethora of other QBs likely to put up comparable fantasy numbers for a fraction of the draft day cost.
RB: Joe Mixon (ADP 31, RB16)
Analysis: Joe Mixon finished as the 32nd overall running back in fantasy last season averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, yet he is being grossly overvalued as the 16th RB coming off of draft boards. Previously known for his ability to accelerate through contact, Mixon was outside the top 30 in yards after contact (2.3) in 2018. According to Sharp Football, Mixon ranked 36th in run success rate amongst eligible running backs with at least 75 carries. Although he is a candidate to see increased carries with the team’s decision to move on from Jeremy Hill, Mixon is still locked in a committee with Giovani Bernard and will be running behind an abysmal offensive line once again. Expect the Bengals to be down multiple scores and forced to rely on the passing game early and often, a recipe that will have fantasy owners wishing they passed on Mixon’s price tag. Buyers beware!
WR: Amari Cooper (ADP 35, WR15)
Analysis: After two straight 1,000 yard seasons to start his NFL career, Cooper took a major step back in 2017, posting career lows in receptions (48) and yardage (680). Considering he posted 30.9% of his total yardage for the season in a single game, his year was even worse than the numbers show. If you take out his one big week, Cooper would have had 77 total fantasy points, making him the 58th WR overall. This magnitude of regression is historically unprecedented, and left fantasy owners frustrated, especially when he failed to reach 10 yards receiving in three consecutive weeks. According to his ADP, it seems that the consensus fantasy football community has decided to forgive Cooper and call last season’s performance a fluke. Even though the Raiders released Michael Crabtree, the addition of Martavis Bryant and Jordy Nelson to the offense will add further competition for targets. There is reason to believe that Cooper will bounce back, but with so many mouths to feed in the Oakland offense he should not be expected to return to fantasy football stardom any time soon and is not worth the risk at his ADP.
TE: Evan Engram (ADP 66, TE5)
Analysis: Evan Engram showcased his first round talent and potential in 2017, finishing as a top 5 tight end in fantasy. However, a majority of his production came when teammates Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard were sidelined with injuries. It is likely that Engram was a product of the shear number of targets he was given, as the ball was thrown his way 115 times. To give that number context, that’s 10 more targets than Rob Gronkowski! Considering the Giants drafted essentially another pass-catcher in Saquon Barkley in addition to the return of Beckham and Shepard, targets will be much harder to come by for Engram next season. He will likely still finish as a top 10 TE, however he is not worth it at his costly ADP.