Derek Carr Headlines Under-Drafted Players for 2018
With OTA’s underway, it is finally starting to feel like fantasy football draft season. With this spirit in mind, it’s worth noting players who are being undervalued with respect to their current ADP, so you are able to get the most value possible for each of your picks come draft day.
Underrated
QB- Derek Carr (ADP 139, QB21)
Analysis: After looking like the Raiders franchise quarterback in 2016, Derek Carr saw a regression in every major statistical category last season. However, most of the blame can be placed on the fact that he had a lingering back injury that hampered his throwing motion and accuracy. Proof of this was Carr’s 37% success rate on tight-window throws (29th in the league), compared to his stellar 48% efficiency for the same metric in 2016 (2nd in the league). Compounding this negative were 35 drops by Oakland receivers, which made the struggling QB’s life and that of fantasy owners even more difficult.
However, there is every reason to believe that Carr will put last season’s performance behind him and return to top form. Most importantly, he will be reporting to training camp 100% healthy. With coaching mastermind Jon Gruden and sure-handed acquisitions in Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant, all signs are pointing towards a bounce back season for Carr, who will return under center behind one of the league’s premier offensive lines. Considering Carr is being drafted just one spot ahead of Mitch Trubisky, he is being severely underrated in drafts and possesses great value at his current ADP.
RB- Marlon Mack (ADP 76, RB31)
Analysis: After playing through a torn labrum for the entirety of his rookie season, the “Mack Attack” is finally healthy - news that is music to the ears of fantasy owners. The Colts’ decision to release Frank Gore leaves 261 carries up for grabs, a majority of which will presumably belong to Mack (who had 93 attempts of his own in 2017). Considering the Colts passed on the RB position in free agency and waited until the 4th round to draft one this year, it is clear that they are confident in Mack’s abilities as both a runner and pass-catcher. Hypothetically, if Mack is allocated 75% of the carries left behind by Gore, he would be on pace to finish 2nd in the league in carries, behind just Le’Veon Bell. Mack has the potential to be an every-down back for the Colts, and that alone should warrant him RB2 value in a league where the RBBC is now commonplace. Instead, Mack is coming off boards as the 31st RB, which makes him an extreme value pick at his current draft position.
WR- Robby Anderson (ADP 98, WR40)
Analysis: In just his second year in the league, Robby Anderson posted 941 yards and 7 touchdowns, finishing as the 16th ranked wide receiver in fantasy, an improvement upon the 587 yards and 2 touchdowns from his rookie season. It wouldn’t be surprising if Anderson made a similar statistical jump once again in 2018. After all, he joins Michael Thomas and Tyreek Hill as the WRs from the 2016 class with the most yardage, so one must wonder why the former undrafted WR isn’t regarded nearly as highly in fantasy rankings. Maybe his off the field issues make him somewhat of a risky pick, but given the fact that all of his pending charges have been dropped combined with his low ADP to begin with removes this risk entirely. Anderson is not being warranted the respect he deserves, so owners who are smart enough to draft him at his low WR4 price will reap WR2 benefits.
TE- Trey Burton (ADP 111, TE 9)
Analysis: Trey Burton made the most of his opportunities in Philadelphia in 2017, working behind Zach Ertz on the depth chart. In the two games that Ertz missed due to injury, Burton averaged 14.95 fantasy points per game. He also had a nose for the end zone, hauling in 5 TDs on just 31 total targets. Burton’s remarkable efficiency makes him an intriguing option for fantasy owners, as he will now replace Zach Miller in a Bears’ offense that has historically relied heavily on TEs. Now that Burton is a candidate to see over 100 targets, he instantly puts himself in the conversation with the league's top tier tight ends. If QB Mitch Trubisky is able to make a similar second year jump as Carson Wentz, Burton could easily put up TE1 production weekly. This upside, especially for a TE position where consistent production is limited to the top tier guys, makes him a great value pick as the 9th tight end off of draft boards.