RBs Outside Top 40 Likely To Break Out in 2018
Fantasy championships are won in the last 5 rounds of the draft, especially at the RB and WR positions. We don’t have to look far to find evidence of this.
Let’s take a look at 2017:
Two RBs outside of the preseason top 40 for the position finished inside the top 5, five inside the top 20, and seven inside the top 25. If we were to include Derrick Henry (preseason ranking of 38) in this list, that would make eight backs inside the top 25.
Keeping this in mind, this article compiles the RBs ranked outside of the preseason top 40 who are most likely to emerge as top fantasy options in 2018. These RBs will not be drafted until the double-digit rounds; however, they all have the potential to be “diamonds in the rough” for your fantasy squad this season.
Kerryon Johnson (RB 40)
This rookie second round pick amounted almost 1,600 yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns against SEC defenses last season. Any time a running back gets drafted in the first two rounds in the NFL, it should warrant the attention of fantasy owners. It is expected that Johnson will be given an opportunity to earn significant touches from the get-go, as he is the most complete back of the Lions' backfield bunch. For now, Johnson’s ceiling is limited because of Legarrette Blount and Theo Riddick, but he has the potential to break out and become the latest rookie running back to take the league by storm.
D’Onta Foreman (RB 43)
D’Onta Foreman is returning to the Texans backfield after suffering a ruptured Achilles tendon on a 34-yard touchdown scamper in week 10 of last season, and is hopeful to be healthy for the start of training camp. Considering he averaged 4.2 yards per carry, he will surely be given an opportunity to earn a role in the offense despite being listed behind Lamar Miller on the depth chart. When asked about his team’s RB situation, head coach Bill O’Brien said:
“It’ll be a battle. At that position, we’ve always kind of had a little bit of a committee. So, Lamar will play, D’Onta will play, just like we did last year when they were both in”.
O’Brien’s high praise for Foreman could eventually lead to him taking over the starting role, especially if Miller averages 3.7 yards per carry again. For these reasons, Foreman is a candidate to finish well above his preseason ranking.
Giovani Bernard (RB 47)
It is well documented that Joe Mixon is overrated in respect to his ADP. On the other side of the coin is Giovani Bernard, who was a hero for many fantasy playoff teams last season, averaging 15.9 fantasy points in weeks 14-16. Standing at just 5'9, Bernard is used to being overlooked. In 2017, Joe Mixon took 39.9% of offensive snaps, while logging over 40 in a game just once. Bernard, on the other hand, was on the field for 50.1% of the team's offensive snaps, and logged over 40 in five separate games. Considering that the Bengals are expected to face a negative game script. forced to rely on the passing game early and often, Bernard figures to be heavily involved in the team’s offensive game plan. While mostly known for making contributions as a receiver, Bernard is deceptively strong and averaged 4.4 yards per carry in 2017, and has proven over his career that he can handle a full workload.
Latavius Murray (RB 55)
After Dalvin Cook went down with a torn ACL in week 4 of last season, Murray was given an expanded role and was a viable fantasy option despite being locked in a committee with Jerick McKinnon. With the decision to move on from McKinnon, Murray is set to be in line for a full workload should Cook go down with another injury, and this time there will not be anyone else to split carries with. Regardless, even if Cook is able to stay healthy, it is likely that the Vikings will be cautious with his usage, which means more opportunities for Murray. Murray finished as the 21st running back last season, and it would not be surprising if he is able to finish at that ranking or even higher in 2018. This upside makes Murray a must own player in fantasy, contrary to his low preseason ranking.
Nyheim Hines (RB62)
With experience at both receiver and running back at NC State, rookie Nyheim Hines could perhaps be the most versatile Colt on the offensive side of the ball. At OTAs, the effort to get Hines involved in the offense was clear, and one analyst said Hines was in possession of the ball “perhaps more than any other player”. For now, Marlon Mack is still the back to own in Indy, but lack of experience and production of his own make Hines a must own handcuff with sleeper potential heading into 2018. We will keep a close eye on how this situation unfolds as training camp progresses.
Corey Clement (RB 51)
Sharing the backfield with Jay Ajayi and Legarrette Blount last season, it was Clement who had the most rushing touchdowns with 4. He was also a contributor in the receiving game, and will try to build off of his Super Bowl performance where he hauled in 4 receptions for 100 yards and a touchdown. With Blount off to Detroit and Ajayi’s injury history, Clement is sure to handle a greater load in 2018 and is a candidate to break out.