WRs Outside Top 40 Likely to Break Out in 2018
Another “first principle” of fantasy football that many owners overlook is that fantasy championships are won in the last 5 rounds of the draft, especially at the RB and WR positions.
As with RBs, we don’t have to look far to find evidence of this for WRs either. Lets take a look at 2017:
Six WRs outside of the preseason top 40 for the position finished inside the top 25. If we were to include Adam Thielen (preseason ranking of 37) in this list, there would be seven who finished in the top 25. Although these findings aren’t as stark as the running backs, they are still evidence of the value that is to be had in the later rounds of drafts.
With this in mind, these are the WRs ranked outside of the top 40 who are most likely to emerge as top fantasy options in 2018. These WRs will not be drafted until the double-digit rounds, however they all have the potential to emerge as “hidden gems” for your fantasy squad this season.
Randall Cobb (WR 45)
The bad news is that Randall Cobb is three seasons removed from putting up 1,300 yards, 12 touchdowns, and over 200 fantasy points. In 2014, Cobb proved that he could be extremely successful as the Packers’ #2 WR, coexisting with Jordy Nelson. In the following 2015-2017 seasons, Cobb was only a shadow of his 2014 self since succumbing the #2 WR job to Davante Adams. In fact, he had more yardage and touchdowns in 2014 than he had in the last two seasons combined.
The good news is that Cobb is still just 26 years young and in the prime of his career. With the team’s decision to move on from Nelson, Cobb is once again the #2 WR in Green Bay for the first time since 2014. Combined with the fact that he has best quarterback in the NFL throwing him the football, all signs are pointing to another monster season after three years of dormancy. Although he is ranked at WR45, he has arguably the most upside of all the wideouts on this this list and could finish as a top 10 receiver.
Allen Hurns (WR 52)
Two injury-riddled seasons that caused Allen Hurns to miss 12 games separate him from a 2015 season in which he posted over 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns. As the top wideout free agent acquisition for a Cowboys team that released Dez Bryant and has Terrance Williams awaiting discipline from the league, Hurns has the opportunity to be the Cowboys’ #1 receiver come week 1. Bryant leaves behind a void of 132 targets, a majority of which Hurns is expected to be the recipient. Zeke Elliot will warrant a majority of the attention of opposing defenses, which also bodes well for Hurns’ outlook. If he is able to get past the injury bug that has haunted him for the last two years, Hurns is a candidate to break out in 2018.
Kelvin Benjamin (WR 43)
It is not fair to judge Kelvin Benjamin off of his 2017 statistics, as he was traded to the Bills in week 9 and finished the season playing through a torn meniscus. After offseason surgery and an intense rehab program, Benjamin will look to put the last two consecutive injury-plagued seasons behind him and revitalize his career. At OTAs, Benjamin was optimistic about his 2018 outlook:
“I feel the best, definitely coming off the ACL two years ago – it never really felt the same but they said it takes two to three years for the ACL to really heal and I feel like my old self.”
Regardless of whether AJ McCarron or rookie Josh Allen will be throwing him the ball this fall, Benjamin is the top receiver on a depleted Bills depth chart who’s leading WR a year ago had just 430 yards (Deonte Thompson- no longer on team). If Benjamin is able to play like the “old self” he says he feels like, he will be a candidate for 1,000 yards. After all, the yardage and touchdowns need to go somewhere…
Marquise Lee (WR 48)
Marquise Lee is fresh off two of the best seasons of his career, and continues to improve with QB Blake Bortles. Last season, Lee was on pace for 118 targets before an ankle injury held him out of the last three contests of the season. Had he been able to do this, he would have been tied with Packers WR Davante Adams as a top 15 WR in terms of targets. Furthermore, the Jags made their future plans to feature Lee as the top receiver in the offense clear by signing him to a 4 year deal worth $38 million, and letting Allen Robinson walk in free agency. As a lock for 100+ targets once again, Lee has the opportunity to put up WR2 production if he can stay healthy.
Robby Anderson (WR 40)
As mentioned in the Top Under-Drafted Players article, Robby Anderson joins Michael Thomas and Tyreek Hill as the WRs from the 2016 class with the most yardage, so one must wonder why he isn’t regarded nearly as highly in fantasy rankings. Anderson is not being warranted the respect he deserves, so owners who are smart enough to draft him will reap WR2 or greater production for the price of a WR4.