Players With Difficult Schedules Who Will Struggle in 2018
In fantasy football, there are certain players who are considered to be “matchup-proof”- players who can be counted on to perform at the top level independent of matchup, including Aaron Rodgers, Todd Gurley, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, etc. This article is focused on the players whose performance is impacted by which team is lining up on the other side of the football. Based on this list of players at each position, fantasy owners can make informed decisions about who to target and who to steer clear of outside of the top ranked players on draft day.
Note: The metric strength of schedule (SOS) is calculated based on the number of fantasy points given up to that position by opponents in the 2017 season. A low SOS ranking (ex. 32) indicates a difficult schedule for that player.
Quarterbacks:
Patrick Mahomes has a difficult road ahead of him in his first year as the Chiefs starting quarterback, and fantasy owners should stay away for any other reasons than to stock him on the bench. Despite his name value, Ben Roethlisberger has only finished as a top 10 fantasy quarterback once since 2012, and his 2018 schedule makes it increasingly likely that this trend will continue. Derek Carr will have his work cut out for him if he is going to have a bounce-back season. Of all the QBs on this list, owners should be most comfortable with Matthew Stafford, who is coming off his best season as a pro posting a near 3:1 TD:INT ratio.
Not listed- Aaron Rodgers (31): Matchup-proof
Running Backs:
Rookie. Rookie. Rookie. And Rookie. It is a scary proposition to think that there are four rookie backs amongst the top five with the most difficult schedules. This makes it increasingly unlikely, but still possible, that we will see another Kareem Hunt or Alvin Kamara performance from a rookie this season. Although it is tempting to list Barkley as matchup-proof, we all need to be reminded that he still hasn’t played a single snap in the NFL, which breeds uncertainty regardless of talent.
Not Listed- Todd Gurley (32): Matchup-proof
Wide Receivers:
Listed in most preseason rankings as a top 10 WR, owners should think twice before drafting Tyreek Hill at his current price point, as he is set to face the league’s most elite secondaries with a first year starting QB under center. The three headed monster of Cooper, Nelson, and Bryant should take defensive pressure off of each other from an individual standpoint, however there are only so many receptions, yards, and TDs to go around (a different can of worms). Owners should not read too deeply into Smith-Schuster’s difficult schedule, as Antonio Brown will once again be the main focus of opposing defenses, which will open up even more opportunities for JuJu as the team’s #2 wideout. The Ravens’ tough matchups will make it difficult for Crabtree to make a name for himself in his first year in Baltimore.
Not listed- Antonio Brown (30), Keenan Allen (provided he can stay healthy): Matchup-proof
Tight Ends:
Owners should steer clear of David Njoku, who has a difficult schedule on top of the uncertainty that comes whenever a rookie QB is under center. Jimmy Graham is a more intriguing option, as his production could very well be a product of Aaron Rodgers. For now, Graham’s schedule is a red flag, but only time will tell if he will return to his elite form, which would warrant him the matchup-proof tag.
Not Listed- Luke Willson (32), Gerald Everett (31), Ed Dickson (29): If you know what team all of these guys play for, props to you. And no, Luke Willson is no longer on the Seahawks, and Ed Dickson is no longer on the Panthers. None of these players are fantasy relevant, hence why they were left off the list.
Defense/ Special Teams:
A common strategy for fantasy owners is to “stream defenses”, using a carousel approach based on matchup. All of the defenses on this list besides the Browns were in the upper half of the league in fantasy points last season, so it will be interesting to see how they fare this year. However, owners still shouldn’t hesitate to start the Steelers when they play the Browns, or when any team plays the Browns for that matter.