Sophomore Year QBs: Breakout or Bust?
The transition from college to the NFL is easier for some than others. Some struggle with the accelerated game speed, extended season, and added pressure, while others are able to make a seamless transition and thrive. However, there are countless examples of players who had breakout rookie seasons and regressed in their second year in the league (RGIII), and even more who had underwhelming rookie years and broke out in year two (Melvin Gordon). In this series, we will predict potential breakouts and "sophomore slumps" at key fantasy positions.
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After a rookie year where the top two picks from the 2016 draft class were irrelevant in fantasy, Carson Wentz and Jared Goff were fantasy gold mines in their sophomore seasons, both finishing as top 10 fantasy quarterbacks. Wentz probably would have finished as the top overall quarterback had it not been for his ACL injury. Meanwhile, after an unforgettable rookie season in which he threw 23 TDs and just 4 INTs, Dak Prescott had a significant statistical regression as a second year pro. Here are three quarterbacks from the 2017 draft class who we believe will be the latest sophomores to put up big numbers.
Patrick Mahomes
The common belief amongst scouts was that Patrick Mahomes would need a year on the bench to develop before he could be given a chance to start. With Alex Smith now in Washington, the Mahomes hype train is rolling and will only continue to gain steam. The Chiefs currently have one of the best offenses in the NFL, with plenty of playmakers including Hunt, Kelce, Hill and Watkins for Mahomes to the throw the ball to. Considering Alex Smith was able to finish as a top 3 fantasy QB in 2017, which was without the acquisition of Sammy Watkins, owners can be confident that Mahomes will finish as a top 15 QB, providing top 10 upside as well.
Deshaun Watson
Deshaun Watson exploded onto the scene last year, scoring 168 fantasy points in just 7 games (24 points per game), on pace to be the top QB before tearing his ACL. To put those numbers in perspective, the next highest average was a tie between Carson Wentz and Russell Wilson at 21.7 fantasy points per game. With Deandre Hopkins leading the WR corps, Watson will pick up right where he left off and continue to play at a high level this season. Expect Watson’s numbers to level out a little bit because of a larger sample size, but he will still be among the top fantasy quarterbacks. Additionally, Hopkins should also be viewed as an elite WR in all fantasy drafts as long as Watson is under center.
Mitchell Trubisky
Trubisky struggled the most of all rookie QBs, posting 7 TD and 7 INT while averaging just 182 yards per game in 12 starts. People forget that Jared Goff had 5 TD and 7 INT in his rookie year, so there is hope for Trubisky heading into his second season. With new offensive-minded head coach Matt Nagy and the Bears' acquisition of Allen Robinson and Trey Burton in free agency, he certainly will have plenty of weapons at his disposal to help him succeed. Because of this, fantasy owners should view Trubisky as a backup or waiver wire target with potential upside to be this year's Jared Goff. Allen Robinson stands to gain the most from a Trubisky breakout season given the impressive numbers he put up with Bortles at QB in 2015.