7 Draft Day Commandments
1. Don’t draft a QB early, unless his name is Aaron Rodgers
Over the past couple of seasons, the “wait on a QB” draft strategy has gained popularity, and for good reason. Last season, the QB who finished second in fantasy points (weeks 1-16) wasn’t even drafted in a majority of leagues (Alex Smith, preseason rank - 23). In addition, the difference between Tom Brady and the 13th ranked QB (Phillip Rivers) in 2017 was just 1.6 fantasy points per week, not enough to warrant a high draft pick in a league where other positions are seemingly so thin. If you are still not convinced, the two QBs that were on pace to finish as the top 2 at the position prior to injury (Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson), had 2017 preseason ADPs of 165 and 250+, respectively. Fading away are the days of elite QBs Rodgers, Manning, Brees, and Brady atop the fantasy quarterback charts.
That entire philosophy is supported by the data, with the exception of Aaron Rodgers. As long as he can stay healthy, he is the only sure-thing QB capable of single-handedly carrying a fantasy team, and for that he is worth a high draft pick. Just ask his 2016 owners, who saw him average over 23 points per game - a whopping 6.2 ppg difference from the 12th ranked QB, Russell Wilson. This difference should make owners comfortable reaching for Rodgers in the second or third rounds of drafts. 100% healthy once again, Rodgers is a lock to put up a solid 20-25 fantasy points or more each and every week.
2. Don’t get caught up in positional runs, especially TEs…
If everyone else jumped off a bridge, would you? No. So why is it that when TEs start coming off the draft board, owners feel the need to rush and settle for a mid-tier one when there are higher tier players at other positions available? What these owners do not understand is that outside of Gronk, Kelce, and Ertz, the remaining TEs ranked 4-15 are likely to put up comparable production. In 2017, a difference of 2.3 fantasy points per game separated the 4th ranked TE (Evan Engram) from the 15th ranked TE (Jared Cook). There is nothing wrong with making a move and drafting Gronk or Kelce early, but don’t settle for a mid-tier TE like Kyle Rudolph just because others were drafting TEs in the same round. Drafting based off of the moves of others will not lead to a successful draft outcome.
3. Rookies, Rookies, Rookies! Especially RBs...
In 2017, four rookie RBs finished inside the top 15, while there were no rookie WRs in the top 15. Adding to this trend is the fact that the 2018 draft class is notably deeper at the RB position than at WR.
Notable Rookie RBs in 2017- Kareem Hunt (RB 3), Alvin Kamara (RB 4), Leonard Fournette (RB 8), Dalvin Cook (RB 8 through week 4), Christian McCaffrey (RB 15), Joe Mixon (RB 32)
Notable Rookie WRs in 2017- Juju Smith-Schuster (WR 18), Cooper Kupp (WR 27), Zay Jones (WR 87), Corey Davis (WR 100)
Main point: Stock up on rookie RBs in 2018. Some notables include Saquon Barkley, Ronald Jones, Derrius Guice, Sony Michel, Rashaad Penny, Kerryon Johnson, Nick Chubb, Royce Freeman, and Nyheim Hines. Of this list, it wouldn’t be surprising to see three of them finish in the top 10.
Note: Despite the lack of success for rookie WRs last season, top rookie WRs D.J. Moore and Calvin Ridley are ranked as the 54th and 56th players at their position, respectively, so taking a flyer on them or others in the final rounds of drafts is worth a shot. Who knows, you could strike the next Michael Thomas (2016), Amari Cooper (2015), or Odell Beckham Jr./Mike Evans (2014).
4. Tiers over rankings
One ranking spot separates Alvin Kamara (5th) from Leonard Fournette/LeSean McCoy (tie 6th) in our 2018 preseason rankings, however there exists more of a value gap between them than simple rankings may suggest. Despite being one ranking apart, owners need to be aware that Kamara is clearly a tier above Fournette and McCoy. Similarly, six ranking spots separate Ronald Jones (20th) from Derrius Guice (26th), but these RBs are actually much closer in value than the rankings show, both belonging in the same tier. Looking deeper than the rankings and organizing draft rankings into tiers will be beneficial in making smart draft day decisions.
5. Don’t worry about coordinating bye weeks
This seems like more of a rookie mistake than anything, but we still have owners asking us this question year after year. The short answer: Don’t miss out on talent just because a player has the same bye week as another player already on your roster.
6. Know your league
First and foremost, knowing the intricacies of your league is imperative in organizing a draft strategy. For example, knowing if your league is PPR, or if passing touchdowns are 4 or 5 points will impact your draft day decisions for the better. Turning a blind eye to your league’s scoring system will put you at a disadvantage from the start. Being well-versed with these small details could be the difference between a playoff appearance versus a lousy season.
Secondly and equally as important, you need to be aware of the other owners in your league. Who are their favorite teams and players? Who are they going to overdraft/underdraft? Could you draft a player and then trade them to a certain individual at a higher price than face value? All of these are questions worth asking as draft day approaches.
7. Go with your gut
Research and analysis is crucial in fantasy football, however even the most advanced statistics can also go so far. Countless other factors are left to chance. If you’re right, congratulations. If you’re wrong, props to you for going with what you believed. If you go against your gut and miss out on this year’s Alvin Kamara, shame on you.