Sophomore Year RBs: Breakout or Bust?
The transition from college to the NFL is easier for some than others. Some struggle with the accelerated game speed, extended season, and added pressure, while others are able to make a seamless transition and thrive. However, there are countless examples of players who had breakout rookie seasons and regressed in their second year in the league (RGIII), and even more who had underwhelming rookie years and broke out in year two (Melvin Gordon). In this series, we will predict potential breakouts and "sophomore slumps" at key fantasy positions.
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RB Edition:
Most of the time, running back success is directly correlated with opportunity. Some rookie RBs are given the full load immediately, like Ezekiel Elliott or Leonard Fournette, while others have to wait a year before they are given that opportunity, such as David Johnson or Alex Collins. Even when provided that opportunity, some RBs turn out to disappoint, such as sophomores Paul Perkins and Kenneth Dixon last season. Here we look at RBs who will breakout and RBs who are doomed to slump and fail to live up to expectations:
Breakouts:
Dalvin Cook
Dalvin Cook may have fallen in the NFL draft, but what he did while the lead rusher for four games last season was impressive. He averaged 4.8 yards per carry and was on pace to finish the season with 204 fantasy points had it not been for a season-ending ACL tear in week 4. While the Vikings offense could take a small dip due to the loss of OC Pat Shurmur, Cook should be able to continue right where he left off, and the addition of Kirk Cousins should help Cook as well given his receiving ability. Cook will face the 3rd easiest schedule among RBs this season, making him a great bet to break out the way he could've last season. Cook will finish as a top 15 RB with top 5 potential if he stays healthy and continues to grow as a runner.
Marlon Mack
Marlon Mack, or Mack Attack as we like to call him, showed tremendous promise as a rookie last season. While his YPC was low (3.8), part of this can be attributed to the very poor play of the Colts offensive line and the lack of a threatening passing attack. Even with those difficulties, Mack ranked 3rd in “Breakaway Percentage” last season, which factors in the ability to turn a basic run into a big play. He also has the ability to be a three down back this season for the Colts due to the departure of veteran Frank Gore. Mack cannot afford his recovery from labrum surgery to hit any road blocks because rookie Nyheim Hines has shown signs of potential in OTAs. Once healthy, however, it will be Mack’s starting job to lose and he should be expected to finish as a top 20 RB, which is great value given his ADP is currently RB31.
Joe Mixon
Joe Mixon has all the necessary tools to be a great running back in the NFL. He has the same general build and body type as Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson and Todd Gurley. While Mixon’s stats in his rookie season were very disappointing, starting with his 3.5 YPC, there is some reason for optimism that he will be better in 2018. In the five games that he started after Jeremy Hill was injured, his YPC jumped to 4.3. Hill is now in New England and Joe Mixon is the only RB on the roster who projects as a three down back. Gio Bernard could limit his usage on third downs, but Mixon should still be the primary back in the Bengals backfield. The Bengals also made some improvements to their offensive line in the offseason, which could make Mixon a reliable RB2 in 2018.
Busts/Slumps:
Jamaal Williams
Jamaal Williams led the Packers in rushing yards last season after injuries to Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones pushed him into the starting role. Williams was very ineffective averaging only 3.6 YPC, while Aaron Jones averaged 5.5 YPC. Unfortunately, Mike McCarthy has already said that the Packers plan to use the dreaded RBBC in 2018. While some committees are still able to produce fantasy relevant RBs, it seems likely that Jones would win the majority of the early down carries due to his efficiency, and Montgomery is likely to get the third down role. This leaves Williams as the “odd man out”. His ADP is currently RB30 which is very high considering the unlikelihood that he sees 15 touches a game in 2018. Fantasy owners should stay away.
Kareem Hunt
Kareem Hunt was stellar in his rookie season, leading the entire NFL in rushing yards with 1,327 and while touting a 4.9 YPC. The Chiefs offense is in for some changes since they will have a new offensive coordinator and quarterback this upcoming season, and teams may try to key in on the run game until Patrick Mahomes proves himself. As we mentioned in the article discussing ACF West RB situations, Hunt was also somewhat inconsistent last season, relying on four huge weeks to inflate his stats for the season. While Hunt should still put up solid fantasy numbers this season, a decrease in production is bound to occur. He is currently our 10th RB, which should be the expectation from Hunt in 2018.