Sophomore WRs: Breakout or Bust?
The transition from college to the NFL is easier for some than others. Some struggle with the accelerated game speed, extended season, and added pressure, while others are able to make a seamless transition and thrive. However, there are countless examples of players who had breakout rookie seasons and regressed in their second year in the league (RGIII), and even more who had underwhelming rookie years and broke out in year two (Melvin Gordon). In this series, we will predict potential breakouts and "sophomore slumps" at key fantasy positions.
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WR Edition:
It is very common that wide receivers will struggle during their rookie seasons. Despite the belief of the casual football fan, WR is among the hardest positions to transition to the NFL. It is partially due to the change in schemes and coverage that you will see. It also has to do with the trust between the quarterback and wide receiver. The quarterback wants to know before he throws it that the receiver is going to run the right route, make the cut at the appropriate time, and catch the ball when it gets there. There are times when that trust doesn’t come immediately and it may take a year to fully develop. Brandon Marshall is a prime example of having a rough rookie year before putting up seven straight years of 1000 yard receiving seasons. Meanwhile, there are also receivers who never live up to the hype of a high draft selection. It seems like every year there are sophomore receivers who receive endless praise and hype only to flop. Here we will reveal our breakout players and the ones who will not live up to the hype:
Breakouts:
Mike Williams
Mike Williams had a rough rookie year. Multiple injuries led to him starting only one game for the Chargers last season. The small sample we saw from Williams was not very encouraging, but every report from Chargers OTAs were quite the opposite. He now has more knowledge of the playbook, teammates have said he looks “ready to go”, and the Chargers plan to give him every opportunity to succeed in 2018. He himself knows how much of a failure his rookie season was and he is determined to prove he will not be a bust. While the Hunter Henry injury was very disappointing for fantasy owners, his loss will be a big gain for Williams, especially down in the red zone. Williams is a unique piece of the receiving corps providing Phillip Rivers with the ability to throw jump balls and let the receiver get it the way he used to do with Vincent Jackson. Williams is currently the 49th WR and that is incredible value for the #2 WR on a pass-first team. Williams should be viewed as a top 30 WR.
Kenny Golladay
Kenny Golladay was one of the most hyped receivers going into last season. He has freakish athleticism that made him a difficult coverage assignment for even Darius Slay to keep up with. Golladay even showcased that talent in his first game of the season catching 4 passes for 69 yards and 2 TDs. He was also hit by the injury bug and missed 6 games. When he returned, he was slowly able to gain more playing time and the trust of his teammates. In each of the Lions last four games, he played at least 80% of the snaps, and he out-snapped veteran Golden Tate in each of those games. The Lions also had the 2nd highest percentage of three wide receiver sets last season, so even if he does play behind Tate he should still get a lot of playing time if that continues this season. Look for Golladay to be a favorite target, especially in the red zone without Ebron this season. He should be able to improve his yardage totals and look for his touchdown total to improve significantly. He is a great value with his current ADP at WR54.
Cooper Kupp
Cooper Kupp had a very solid rookie season. He finished as the 23rd WR with 114.9 fantasy points in weeks 1 through 16. He also developed a great rapport with QB Jared Goff. While the trade for Brandin Cooks does affect his value, Kupp played primarily out of the slot in 2017, and Cooks has been used almost exclusively as an outside receiver in the NFL. The Rams did use 3 WR sets on 81% of their plays last season which was the highest of any NFL team. If anything, expect Cooks to take the workload Watkins had last year and some of the targets and snaps from Robert Woods. Last season Kupp had 13 red zone receptions as opposed to Cooks’ 8 and Woods’ 6. This bodes well for his red zone usage this season, and it won’t hurt that he seemed to be Goff’s go-to guy in critical situations. While he may not be the flashiest pick, Kupp should at least put up similar numbers to what he was able to do last season, if not better, and he is a steal at his current ADP of WR42.
Busts:
John Ross
John Ross made a name for himself when he broke CJ2K’s 40 yard dash combine record. There are no doubts as to his speed. Unfortunately, his production just didn’t match up, catching only one pass for 11 yards in 2017. He dealt with a multitude of injuries that derailed his rookie season, and from his recent comments, he is still dealing with the mental hurdles of trying to live up to the hype of being a high draft pick. The biggest hurdle could be getting enough opportunities. A.J. Green has been an elite WR for years and it has been difficult to find a productive WR to pair with him. The last time the Bengals had two top 25 fantasy WRs was back in 2013 when Marvin Jones put up double-digit touchdowns. Ross should be better than last year, but do not expect him to put up starter fantasy numbers this season.