Sophomore TE: Breakout or Bust?
The transition from college to the NFL is easier for some than others. Some struggle with the accelerated game speed, extended season, and added pressure, while others are able to make a seamless transition and thrive. However, there are countless examples of players who had breakout rookie seasons and regressed in their second year in the league (RGIII), and even more who had underwhelming rookie years and broke out in year two (Melvin Gordon). In this series, we will predict potential breakouts and "sophomore slumps" at key fantasy positions.
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TE Edition:
Last season was one of the deepest TE classes in recent memory. There were many draft picks that had strong fantasy potential. Unfortunately, tight end is another position that typically does not have productive rookie seasons. While there are always exceptions, like Evan Engram, the majority of tight ends spend their first year working on improving blocking and getting accustomed to the game speed of the NFL. Here we will analyze which TEs will take the next step and who will disappoint in their second season:
Breakouts:
David Njoku
David Njoku had a respectable rookie season as far as tight ends go. He was a raw talent that people expected to take some time to develop when the Browns drafted him. Even with the mess they had at QB last season, he was able to catch 32 passes for 386 yards and 4 touchdowns. He also only played 46.8% of the Browns’ offensive snaps. With an increase in snaps, he should see his production increase. Whether it is Tyrod Taylor or Baker Mayfield at QB this season, both should be viewed as a big improvement for Njoku. The overall improved efficiency of the offense will also create many more red zone and scoring opportunities this season, where Njoku can excel and maximize his size advantage. Hue Jackson also has a history of creating TDs for tight ends. Back in 2015 while Jackson was OC for the Bengals, Tyler Eifert was a top 6 fantasy TE and averaged 10.7 fantasy PPG. Expect Njoku to finish as a top 10 fantasy TE this season.
Jake Butt
Jake Butt went very under the radar in the draft process and all of last season while recovering from an ACL tear he suffered at Michigan. Meanwhile, the Broncos have been lacking any production from the TE position since 2014 when Julius Thomas put up 12 TDs. AJ Derby led the Broncos TEs in receiving with 19 catches for only 224 yards. Despite the lack of performance, Denver has not signed any significant free agent tight ends, and only drafted one tight end in the 5th round. Butt is not as athletically gifted as some of his receiving counterparts, but he will excel at being a reliable, move-the-chains receiver for Broncos this season. John Elway has said “We like the potential there, we like what he can bring to the offense.” Clearly, they have big plans to utilize him and he seems very ready to do so. In minicamp, Case Keenum said Butt consistently wanted the football regardless of how many guys were covering him. If he can produce anything like his numbers at University of Michigan, this guy will be an absolute steal. Look for him to go very late in your draft as a potential backup tight end, but he will be worth the pick.
OJ Howard
OJ Howard was the most complete tight end coming out of college. His athletic ability to stretch the field, and his skills as an inline blocker allow him to be on the field in most formations. He was only on the field for 55.6% of the Buccaneers offensive snaps last season, and he still put up top 15 TE numbers. He also outsnapped fellow teammate Cameron Brate. With Jameis Winston’s three game suspension on the horizon, look for OJ to be relied on heavily by backup Ryan Fitzpatrick. Any increase in snaps and targets should allow Howard to improve upon his already solid numbers from last season. Howard was able to take advantage of his opportunities last season finishing the year with 16.6 yards per reception. That would have put him at 7th best in the NFL (ahead of Julio Jones, Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown) if he had a larger sample. He is currently ranked as the 14th TE in standard formations. Howard should be a lock for top 10 TE production assuming he stays healthy.
Busts/Slumps:
Evan Engram
Evan Engram was the most productive rookie tight end in years. He finished 4th among fantasy TEs last season with 109.6 fantasy points in weeks 1-16. So why would he be on the bust list? Well, Engram’s stats had a lot to do with the ridiculous usage he received last season. He finished with 115 targets for the season, which was second most among tight ends behind Travis Kelce. That was also more than all three Giants tight ends combined in 2016. With OBJ expected back and Sterling Sheppard healthy, both of them will significantly cut into the target distribution this season. Just looking at the basic stats show he was a productive receiver last year for the Giants, but he only caught 55% of the passes thrown his way. He also led the NFL in drops with 11, according to PFF. The Giants also decided to draft Saquon Barkley 2nd overall and they plan to rely on him heavily this season. This could impact Engram’s usage as well since he is not known for his blocking and may come off the field more often this season. Engram’s current ADP of TE6 is just too high. He will most likely still finish as a top 10 fantasy tight end, but the draft position you will have to use to get him will not be worth the production you will get.