10 Concerns About The Top 10 Players
There's always some controversy regarding who to take with your first round pick. After all, in theory your first round player should be your best player. Yet every year there are players that will not perform as well as you would expect. The key is to look deeper into the stats and decide whether a guy really belongs in the top 10.
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Here are 10 interesting stats that will make you second guess drafting any of these Top 10 Players:
1. Le'Veon Bell
Fact: Since Le’Veon joined the Steelers in 2013, they have played 66 games with him and 21 without him. They have averaged the same 25.3 PPG with and without him.
Analysis: This stat is not only shocking, but it makes you question whether Le’Veon is really worth the huge payday he is trying to receive. Maybe the continued success of Steelers RBs in recent years has more to do with their offense than Bell’s talent.
2. Todd Gurley
Fact: In the last 10 years, no RB with 15+ touchdowns has finished with 15 or more touchdowns the following year.
Analysis: As was mentioned in our TD Regression article, the odds are stacked against Gurley to replicate his TD total from last season. With that being said, he is still expected to finish a top 5 RB.
3. David Johnson
Fact: In the last game Johnson played before he went out for the season, he was terribly inefficient, running for only 23 yards on 11 carries.
Analysis: After his explosive finish to the 2015 season and his incredible season in 2016, teams began allocating more resources to stopping him. Could that one game in 2017 be a sign of what is to come in 2018?
4. Antonio Brown
Fact: In the five games Ben has missed in the last three years, Brown has averaged less than 70 YPG and 0 touchdowns.
Analysis: Brown’s production is directly tied to the production and health of Ben Roethlisberger. With Big Ben getting older every season, it becomes more and more likely that he will miss games. If this occurs, AB could experience serious regression.
5. Ezekiel Elliott
Fact: Zeke’s efficiency dropped significantly last season due to injuries to the offensive line, and the lack of a threatening passing attack. His YPC went down from 5.1 to 4.1.
Analysis: This season could be even worse since the Cowboys no longer have Dez or Witten to throw the ball to. Expect a lot of teams to stack the box and dare Dak Prescott to beat them throwing the ball. Elliott will still get a huge workload as long as he can stay on the field.
6. Deandre Hopkins
Fact: Hopkins has never posted back to back seasons of being a top 12 WR.
Analysis: This may have more to do with the QB situation in Houston each year, but it is concerning that the #2 WR hasn’t been able to put two seasons of elite WR numbers up in a row.
7. Alvin Kamara
Fact: While his production on limited touches last year was impressive, his 201 touches last season was the most he has ever had in one season.
Analysis: Ingram’s suspension will open up more snaps and opportunities for Kamara. The concern is that he has never been relied on to handle that big of a workload for a full season, and he may wear down or get hurt as the season goes on.
8. Odell Beckham Jr.
Fact: Odell had more injuries during his short NFL career than he has had seasons.
Analysis: While some of the injuries were minor and he played through them, OBJ has shown a tendency to return from injuries before he is ready, and last season it caused him to reinjure himself and miss the rest of the season.
9. Leonard Fournette
Fact: Of the top 10 RBs from last season, Fournette had the worst YPC at 3.88.
Analysis: The Jags showed last season that they are perfectly content with handing off the ball to Fournette regardless of how efficient he is being. With Bortles still at QB, it is likely that will not be changing this season. He will need to improve his efficiency if he wants to have a similar fantasy ceiling as the people ranked around him.
10. LeSean McCoy
Fact: McCoy turns 30 in exactly one week from today.
Analysis: Most people who follow football have heard that 30 is the magic number for predicting the downfall of a RB. While some have been able to elude that superstition, many see their numbers decline as they get around that age. Will McCoy be the next victim?