Injury Prone QBs: Worth the Risk?
Every fantasy owner has that one player that they want to draft every year. The guy who always shows potential to be a star right before he gets injured. It’s so easy to make yourself believe that this year is going to be the year he stays healthy and leads your team to the fantasy football promise land. While those players come at a discounted price, it still may be too much of a risk at their current ADP. Here we will be looking into the injury prone players at each position to determine whether their potential is worth the injury risk.
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Quarterbacks:
Deshaun Watson:
ADP (QB 2): Very Unfavorable
Injury Risk: Favorable
Production: Very Favorable
Deshaun Watson quickly became a favorite player among fantasy football owners. While it may be questionable whether he can be considered injury prone after just one NFL season, this is his second ACL tear in his football career and it is worth noting. Only time will tell how he will be able to recover.
In the seven games Watson did play, he was sensational averaging over 24 fantasy PPG. It was a small sample size, but expect Watson to bounce back strong. He is one our sophomore breakout players this season. His ADP is very high for the amount of question marks still surrounding his health. Watson is a great player to target if he falls to QB5 or QB6.
Verdict: Avoid (unless his ADP drops)
Marcus Mariota:
ADP (QB 18): Favorable
Injury Risk: Unfavorable
Production: Unfavorable
As with many mobile QBs in the NFL, Mariota is at an increased risk of getting hit and therefore getting injured. Although his injuries in the past have not caused him to miss too many games, he has only played one full season in three years. Even when Mariota was out there, his numbers were only average finishing top 10 only once.
Mariota’s ADP currently sits at QB 18 which is a little high given his lack of a truly great fantasy season so far. The risk of him getting injured is higher than other QBs and his career fantasy PPG is only about 16.2. I would go with someone with more upside for a backup. Alex Smith, Jameis Winston or Derek Carr could all be available around the same time and would be better picks.
Verdict: Avoid
Andrew Luck:
ADP (QB 13): Favorable
Injury Risk: Very Unfavorable
Production: Very Favorable
Where to take Luck in your fantasy draft has become one of the biggest debates within the fantasy football community. While on the field, Luck is an elite QB posting two straight seasons of top 5 QB in 2013-2014. Unfortunately, those seasons were followed by 3 seasons where he did not play full seasons including 2017 where he missed the entire season. Nobody seems to know when Luck will come back and whether he will be able to return to the form he displayed in his earlier years.
With Luck’s ADP currently at QB 13, he is expected to be taken as a very high quality backup to low quality starter. His 19.4 fantasy points per game in his career is phenomenal and just too good to pass up. Even if he were to miss time in the beginning of the season, his return could be huge if you get him a little later in the draft and have a viable replacement for the time he may miss. Luck should be targeted in any draft if his ADP stays where it is.
Verdict: Draft