Olaya's Favorite Players in Rounds 6-10
One of the most important tips for any type of fantasy draft is to always go in with a plan. Before each draft you should have a set of players that you should try to get on your team so you know who to pick when time is running out on the clock. That being said, here is a list of players you should target in rounds 6 through 10 (10 person, Standard Scoring).
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Round 6: Larry Fitzgerald (WR)
The player to draft in this round was a tough selection between Larry Fitzgerald and the FFL favorite Ronald “Mr. Opportunity” Jones II, but the nod was given to the future hall of famer over the promising rookie. Just a few years ago, many were convinced that Fitzgerald’s days of producing as an elite WR were over, but like a fine wine, Fitzgerald has gotten better with age, turning in 3 straight top 20 seasons and a top 10 finish last year.
The fear around Fitzgerald this year, and in previous years is similar to the fear surrounded in drafting Frank Gore, the belief that eventually Fitzgerald will drop off due to his age. People who have had this fear have missed out on 3 solid years from Fitzgerald at a bargain draft price. Over the past 3 years he is second only to Antonio Brown in catches, thriving out of the slot.
While there is reason to doubt that Fitzgerald can put up another solid season next year due to his age, his production at this age isn’t unprecedented and even if it were, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that Fitzgerald would be the receiver to break this new ground. With Sam Bradford or Josh Rosen at QB, as well as having David Johnson healthy in the backfield, the Cards should have a much better offense than they did last year which is only good news for Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald is a good pick in the 6th round considering he has a floor as a top 20 WR with top 10 upside.
Round 7: Cam Newton (QB)
Cam Newton is the top tier fantasy QB that no one is talking about this offseason, which is always a good indicator that he might be a steal in the draft. The fantasy community has been overwhelmed with excitement in young stars coming off injury (Deshaun Watson and Carson Wentz), superstar Aaron Rodgers coming off injury, and the excellence of Tom Brady after another marvelous season at an old age. The effects of this offseason talk can be seen in ADP, where all of these quarterbacks, including Russell Wilson and Drew Brees, are being drafted ahead of Newton.
In 4 out of 6 of Newton’s seasons in the NFL, Newton has finished as a top 5 quarterback. Last year, Newton was the third best QB in fantasy, better than Brady’s fantasy output in 2017, yet despite concern from some (not me) regarding Brady’s old age, he is still being drafted 2 rounds ahead of Newton. Deshaun Watson, who by all accounts had a marvelous rookie year, is getting drafted a full 3 rounds ahead of Newton despite playing in a total of 7 NFL games and throwing touchdowns at an unsustainable rate in 2017.
In summary, quarterbacks such as Watson, Wentz, and Brady are all being drafted much closer to their ceilings than Newton is. Outside of Rodgers, Newton has been one of the safest bets for a top 5 fantasy finish in recent years, and the fact that he’s going multiple rounds behind players who have yet to play a full season makes him a steal in the 7th round.
Round 8: Marlon Mack (RB)
Round 8 should be around the time where you are filling up the bench with high upside players. Marlon Mack or the “Mack Attack” definitely qualifies as a high upside player. With a foot in the door to the Colts starting RB job, Mack has the opportunity to get a lot of carries left on the table by Frank Gore, who is now playing for the Miami Dolphins.
By the end of the season, Mack projects to be a fine low-end RB2 or flex play as our 25th ranked running back, which is tremendous value to get in the 8th round. The prospect of Mack getting the full load also makes for tremendous upside considering the low draft pick. Compared to other RBs being taken in the 8th round like Carlos Hyde, Tevin Coleman, and Aaron Jones, Mack has a clear advantage in the path to getting 200+ carries unlike these players stuck in an obvious timeshare in their respective backfields.
Round 9: Julian Edelman (WR)
The low ADP and hesitation to draft Julian Edelman is obvious thanks to his 4 game suspension, but drafting Edelman at this price is a similarly obvious choice. Drafting Edelman in the 9th round is no risk at all considering he will just be a bench player, but what Edelman has shown us is that he can be a top 20 WR with Brady throwing him the ball.
While there is doubt that Edelman will return to his former self, it’s worth noting that he has been one of Brady’s favorite targets over the past few years. In fact, without Edelman, Brady averages 3 fantasy points less than with him. The departure of Brandin Cooks through trade and Danny Amendola through free agency only makes the importance of Edelman in the Patriots offense greater. This guarantees that he will be a contributing part of the offense once he comes back from suspension.
There are other players that should be available by the time the 9th round rolls around like Devin Funchess, Corey Davis, and Emmanuel Sanders that could all end up having solid seasons, but its always the safest bet to count on the Patriots offense to perform, making Edelman a worthy pick here.
Round 10: C.J. Anderson (RB)
I won’t go as far as to say that C.J. Anderson is the steal of the draft, but he is pretty close to it. Anderson was a top 15 RB last year yet is currently being drafted as the RB 39 due to the misguided perception that Anderson is the backup RB and that Christian McCaffrey is the starter. To set the record straight, here are the facts.
McCaffrey finished as the 14th best fantasy RB in his rookie season, earning 117 rushes and 80 receptions. Some running backs, to name a few, that had more carries than McCaffrey last year include Orleans Darkwa, Javorius Allen, and Kerwynn Williams. If you can name the teams that each of those 3 running backs are currently on you can consider yourself among the very few of fantasy football experts. McCaffrey’s receiving numbers were impressive for any running back, but his yards per carry (3.7) was a strong affirmation of draft scouts’ doubts that McCaffrey is not an effective runner between the tackles or a workhorse RB.
The perception that McCaffrey is the lead back may have stemmed from the ineffectiveness of Jonathan Stewart last year. Stewart was top 20 in the NFL in carries (198) last year, but this went unnoticed considering he ranked among the worst RBs in the league with 3.4 yards per carry. The fact that Stewart got this many carries, with McCaffrey and Cam Newton stealing carries, is amazing considering how ineffective he was. Even more amazing perhaps was the fact that Stewart finished as the 29th RB in fantasy, a true testement to opportunity creating fantasy production.
Enter C.J. Anderson, who coming off a solid 1,000 yard season should be expected to get at least as many carries as Stewart got and be much more effective with those carries. Anderson’s floor therefore can be considered as high as Stewart finished last season, which is already 10 positions higher (RB29) than Anderson is currently going for (RB39). His ceiling, while limited by Newton’s ability in short-yardage situations, should be considered as high as a top 20 RB.