Injury Prone RBs: Worth the Risk?
Every fantasy owner has that one player that they want to draft every year. The guy who always shows potential to be a star right before he gets injured. It’s so easy to make yourself believe that this year is going to be the year he stays healthy and leads your team to the fantasy football promise land. While those players come at a discounted price, it still may be too much of a risk at their current ADP. Here we will be looking into the injury prone players at each position to determine whether their potential is worth the injury risk:
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Running Backs:
Dion Lewis:
ADP (RB 29): Favorable Injury Risk: Unfavorable Production: Favorable
Dion Lewis became a notable fantasy running back in 2015 when he averaged 12 fantasy PPG for seven games before tearing his ACL. He then missed nine games the following season after needing clean up surgery on the same injury. 2017 was the first season of Lewis’ five year career that he played in all 16 games and the only time he has been a starter for at least eight games. He is now on the Titans and he should be in committee with Derrick Henry. While Henry is likely to dominate the red zone and short yardage opportunities, Lewis is the more complete back when taking into account his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. His ADP is currently very favorable at RB 29 if he can replicate the success he was able to have being a part of the dreaded Patriots committee last season.
Verdict: Draft
Jay Ajayi:
ADP (RB 19): Unfavorable Injury Risk: Unfavorable Production: Favorable
Ajayi was a strong player for the Dolphins and he also played a big part in getting the Eagles their first Super Bowl victory. Unfortunately, there are questions dating back to his college days about his knees. They are apparently bone on bone at this point and the question isn’t really if they will give out, but when they will give out. Ajayi has not played a full 16 games yet in his career and without Blount this season, he could be expected to handle a bigger load than his knees are able to do. His PPG dropped from 12.9 in 2016 to 7.9 in 2017 and reports from the Dolphins sighted Ajayi’s declining performance as one of the primary reasons for trading him. His current ADP sits at RB 19 which is not bad for a starting RB, but given his situation and injury history, it would be smarter to grab a younger RB with more upside.
Verdict: Avoid
Leonard Fournette:
ADP (RB 7): Unfavorable Injury Risk: Unfavorable Production: Very Favorable
Fournette has become the center and focus of the Jaguars’ offense despite only playing one season so far. Unfortunately, he has already has his issues with injuries playing in only 13 games in 2017 after dealing with ankle issues. He also missed games back at LSU with ankle injuries and there were talks that it could be a chronic issue. While his injury history hasn’t been stellar, his production has already provided fantasy owners with big hopes for the future after finishing his rookie season with 15.1 fantasy PPG. That figure was the 5th best among RBs last season and he still finished as the RB 8 despite missing 3 games. In this case, his production is too good to pass up and fantasy owners just have to hope that he doesn’t have another ankle issue.
Verdict: Draft