Injury Prone WRs: Worth the Risk?
Every fantasy owner has that one player that they want to draft every year. The guy who always shows potential to be a star right before he gets injured. It’s so easy to make yourself believe that this year is going to be the year he stays healthy and leads your team to the fantasy football promise land. While those players come at a discounted price, it still may be too much of a risk at their current ADP. Here we will be looking into the injury prone players at each position to determine whether their potential is worth the injury risk:
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Wide Receivers:
Keenan Allen:
ADP (WR 6): Very Unfavorable
Injury Risk: Unfavorable
Production: Very Favorable
Allen was finally able to stay healthy last season and showcase his tremendous abilities. It was the first time in his five year career that he was able to play a full season. In 2015-2016, he only played 9 games total due to injuries. While he seemed to have moved past the injuries that have plagued him in the past, it is still very concerning that a player that would be drafted to be your “best player” would have an injury history as long as he does.
Injuries have been the big story in regards to Keenan Allen’s career, but there is also some justification for the hype. Allen finished as the WR 4 by the end of the fantasy season. Look for Allen to be on pace to put up close to the 10.8 fantasy PPG he did last season, but do not be surprised if he misses multiple games due to injuries. With how high he is being drafted, there are safer players that could be more reliable to produce for a full season.
Verdict: Avoid
Sammy Watkins:
ADP (WR 27): Favorable
Injury Risk: Unfavorable
Production: Unfavorable
Watkins has been up and down throughout his first four NFL seasons. One of the main reasons has been injuries that have caused him to play only one full season. He fell out of favor in Buffalo after a nagging ankle issue that he had during the 2015 and 2016 seasons costed him significant playing time. He has injured or required surgery to his right ankle four separate times in those two seasons.
When on the field, Watkins has been fairly successful having three top 30 finishes in four years. Unfortunately, his production has gone down pretty significantly since he began having these ankle injuries. In the past two seasons, he has averaged 7.1 fantasy PPG. That number doesn’t seem terrible, but when compared to the 10.1 that he averaged in his first two seasons, it can definitely add up. Watkins has now moved to Kansas City where he will be behind Hill and Kelce for targets. He is not worth his current ADP.
Verdict: Avoid
Will Fuller:
ADP (WR 24): Favorable
Injury Risk: Very Unfavorable
Production: Very Favorable (with a healthy Deshaun Watson)
Fuller has only been in the NFL for two seasons, but he has already missed 8 games. According to Sports Injury Predictor, Fuller is the 2nd most likely WR to get injured this season after Kevin White. With there already being questions about his quarterback’s health and availability for the beginning of the season, another injury could send Fuller to the land of irrelevant players.
What Fuller does have going for him is his productivity. For someone who would become a WR2 or WR3 for most teams, he does have a tremendous amount of upside. In the four games he played with Watson, his fantasy PPG was 17.7. That would have given him the highest fantasy PPG among WRs in 2017 and a full 2 PPG higher than Antonio Brown. Obviously, Fuller’s numbers would most likely decline when you look at a full season, but the potential for a big return on investment is still there. If Watson is able to play the full season and stay healthy, Will Fuller could be one of the biggest steals of the whole draft.
Verdict: Draft