PPR: RBs Outside the Top 40 Likely to Break Out
Drafts are won in the last 5 rounds. Picking the right sleepers that turn their potential into reality is key to having a championship fantasy season. Every year there are players that are being drafted in the late rounds who end up as fantasy superstars as well as reliable starters. Last year players like Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara, and Dion Lewis were drafted as RBs outside the top 40 at their position, but each of them far outperformed their ADPs, rewarding many fantasy owners willing to take the chance on them. With that, here are RBs currently being drafted outside the top 40 in PPR leagues that can break out for your fantasy team in 2018.
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Giovani Bernard (RB 49)
Giovani Bernard could be the steal of the draft at his current ADP. He is currently being drafted as the 49th best running back, despite finishing as the 28th best RB last year. In fact, in the 4 years he played close to full seasons (13+ games) he has been a top 20 RB 3 times and a top 30 RB once, which is obviously no where close to RB 49. In each of these same four seasons Bernard has had more than 40 catches as well, a significant number considering that in 2017 only 2 out of 19 RBs to tally 40+ catches finished outside of the top 30. The significance of this statistic is further emphasized given that both of these exceptions (Shane Vereen and James White) are players who were expected to occupy an extremely limited role in the run game anyways.
Bernard is not only an established producer in the passing game, but he is also an effective runner. His 4.4 yards per carry last year stood far above Mixon’s 3.5 yards per carry, hinting at the possibility that Bernard sees a big increase in carries this year. With Jeremy Hill gone, a big workload opened up in Cincinnati, and Bernard seems primed to take advantage of the opportunity. Considering Bernard will likely finish in the top 20, drafting him as RB 49 should be a no-brainer.
Ty Montgomery (RB 43)
Ty Montgomery is currently involved in a 3 way battle with Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones for the lead role out of the backfield in Green Bay, but at this point Montgomery should be considered the best option out of the 3 in PPR leagues. The reasoning behind this determination is simple: Montgomery used to be a wide receiver. This fact alone proves that Montgomery is skilled enough to be an NFL-caliber WR, which puts him at a clear advantage over the other backs in the RB room. Not only does Montgomery have good hands for a RB, but he also has a good chance to become the lead RB for the Packers, further increasing his ceiling. At worst, Montgomery is the lead receiver out of the backfield in a pass-heavy offense, but at his best Montgomery could churn out a top 20 season.
Matt Breida (RB 54)
All the hype surrounding Jerick McKinnon has left Matt Breida as a forgotten commodity in the San Francisco 49ers backfield. This hype is by no means unwarranted, after all McKinnon is clearly the most skilled RB on the team who is set to get the most carries in a potential juggernaut offense led by Jimmy Garoppolo and designed by Kyle Shanahan. But this doesn’t mean that Breida won’t also have a good season, despite being the clear #2 option.
Consider Shanahan’s tenure in Atlanta. Under Shanahan in 2016, the Atlanta Falcons had an offense that was able to support two fantasy impactful RBs in Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, who finished the year as the 6th and 19th best RBs in fantasy, respectively. Breida might not be the most skilled receiver (21 catches on 36 targets), but his effectiveness as a runner showed last year, averaging 4.43 yards per carry. Expect Shanahan to create a place for Breida in the 49ers offense, and watch out for McKinnon and Breida as they may be this year’s Freeman and Coleman of 2016.
Devontae Booker (RB 50)
ADP shows us that most fantasy players as well as experts predict that Royce Freeman will receive the starting RB job in Denver, with an ADP as the 25th RB in fantasy, but don’t be surprised if Devontae Booker finishes ahead of “Rolls Royce Freeman” this year. While Freeman is an intriguing rookie with unknown potential, one thing that is known is that he isn’t the most talented pass catcher. In his last year at Oregon, he had only 14 catches despite carrying the ball 244 times, showing that he isn’t used as a pass-catcher very often. Meanwhile, in 13 games played, Booker snagged 30 catches for a catch rate of 78.9% (catches/targets) which alludes to his likely roll as the main receiving back.
The lead rushing role on the other hand may be more up for grabs than it appears. Freeman was a great rusher in college, but how his game will correlate to the NFL is a mystery. Even though Freeman has the potential to be the next Kareem Hunt or Alvin Kamara, there are about 5 rookie running backs for every one rookie stud who fail to live up to the hype. In this case, it would be Devontae Booker in line to at least split carries with Freeman, ultimately creating the opportunity for Booker to finish as a top 25 RB.