TRAINING CAMP: NFC Backfield Situations to Monitor

It’s late July which means we are just around the corner from the 2018 fantasy season. More importantly though it means that training camp is starting up for teams in the beginning stages of creating a game plan, finalizing their roster, and selecting starters who will see the field on gameday. This is also the time where fantasy championships are won and lost, as even the smallest stories out of camp can indicate who the next fantasy stud may be. Only the first person in your league to pick up a player will be the one to benefit from his production, making training camp a crucial time for fantasy owners. With that, here are some backfields that you need to keep an eye on during training camp.

Philadelphia Eagles:

Overlooked during Carson Wentz’s epic season was the productive run game the Eagles were able to maintain in 2017. Without any elite talent in the backfield, the Eagles finished the season as the 3rd best rushing offense in the league, led by LeGarrette Blount with only 766 yards. Now that Blount is gone, the lead rushing role is up for grabs, and Jay Ajayi and Corey Clement are both auditioning for the part.

Both RBs were impressive last season, although the team turned to Ajayi to take over the main rushing duties during the Eagles unexpected Super Bowl run. Ajayi also put up solid numbers once he was implemented into the offense after a mid-season trade, averaging 5.8 ypc during the regular season with the Eagles. What remains unclear is how involved Clement will be in the offense, and training camp practices will help shed light on that.

FANTASY PREDICTION: Jay Ajayi wins the starting job, leading the backfield of a high profile offense, giving him a chance to finish as a high end RB2 if he can stay healthy. Corey Clement becomes a change-of-pace back with the expectation to see around 10 touches per game.

Green Bay Packers:

Ever since Eddie Lacy’s short stint as a fantasy relevant running back, the Packers’ backfield has been a big question mark, and nothing has changed this year. Heading into training camp the Packers expect to have a 3 way battle between Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, and Ty Montgomery for the starting spot, with the potential to result in a RBBC.

Aaron Jones has proven to be the most talented rusher of the group, averaging 5.5 ypc last year, albeit in limited action, but his fantasy potential will be limited due to a 2 game suspension to start the season. This opens the door for Jamaal Williams and Ty Montgomery to challenge each other for the job during the first couple weeks, although neither has proven they can carry the full load in the backfield. This battle for the top spot is as tightly contested as any in the league, so any significant performance from any player is crucial in determining who will come out on top.

FANTASY PREDICTION: Aaron Jones becomes the “lead rusher” of a 3 way RBBC. Jones turns into a solid flex play while Williams and Montgomery serve nicely as bye week subs.

Detroit Lions:

In recent years the Lions backfield has been known as a fantasy wasteland. The Lions have had only two 1,000 yard rushers in the past 15 seasons, the last being Reggie Bush in 2013. Even more impressive is the fact that Matt Stafford has only had 7 games with a 100 yard rusher since being drafted in 2009. By this time it should come as no surprise that in 2017 the Lions ranked last in the league in team rushing.

While many readers may have already moved onto the next segment after reading the above, one Lions player would like to remind fantasy owners to “keep calm and Kerryon” with Kerryon Johnson. Drafted high in the 2nd round, Johnson was taken by the Lions with the hope that he can eventually become the franchise running back they’ve failed to find since Barry Sanders retired. The Lions also signed LeGarrette Blount in the off season, and it will be telling to see how many reps he gets in camp that are not in short yardage situations.

FANTASY PREDICTION: Kerryon Johnson will be the lead rusher of a RBBC and a low end flex player. Blount will get his snaps in the red zone and Theo Riddick will get snaps on passing downs, making him a valuable bench player in PPR leagues. Ameer Abdullah will be the odd man out after failing to produce in previous years.

Carolina Panthers:

The Carolina Panthers have had one of the top rushing offenses in recent years thanks to Cam Newton’s ability as a rusher, but the core of this rushing attack for 2018 is found in Christian McCaffrey and C.J. Anderson, who was acquired in the off season. Both finished as top 15 RBs last year, and now that both are in the same backfield there will be a heated competition for carries.

C.J. Anderson will likely fill the main rushing role previously occupied by Jonathan Stewart, who is now on the New York Giants. Stewart’s departure leaves 198 carries on the table which Anderson is more than capable of picking up considering he carried the rock 245 times last season. Christian McCaffrey is one of the most talented receivers out of the backfield, but he will likely concede most of the carries to Anderson due to his ineffectiveness as a rusher last year. Many people will be watching McCaffrey’s training camp to see whether he has improved as a runner, as it could dramatically raise his fantasy ceiling if he has.

FANTASY PREDICTION: Both Anderson and McCaffrey will have solid fantasy years, with McCaffery finishing as a top 15 RB and C.J. Anderson as a top 25 RB.

Seattle Seahawks:

Since the 2018 NFL Draft, most everyone was expecting Rashaad Penny to be the starter at RB for the Seahawks, but a report from Seahawks beat writer Bob Condotta suggests that Chris Carson is expected to be the lead guy entering training camp. While this report doesn’t mean that Carson will win the job, it does indicate that the role for the starting RB is more open than previously thought. The situation in Seattle isn’t the best considering they may have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, but the RB1 slot is wide open for 2018 due to the absence of a consistent starter last year.

Penny comes into the NFL as a player who has proven he can handle a high workload. Last year Penny had nearly 300 carries and over 2,000 rushing yards at San Diego State University, but it should be noted that he didn’t play in a Power 5 conference and that he was barely used as a pass catcher. Carson looked the part of a top 20 RB early in the season last year before breaking his leg, but now he is 100% healthy as he looks to win the starting job in Seattle for the second straight year.

FANTASY PREDICTION: Penny wins the starting job, but with a questionable offensive line he finishes as a low end RB2 or Flex play. Carson will still be featured in the offense due to his talent as a rusher and receiver and becomes valuable as a bench player sub for bye weeks.