TRAINING CAMP: AFC Backfield Situations to Monitor
It’s early August which means we are just around the corner from the 2018 fantasy season. More importantly though it means that training camp is starting up for teams in the beginning stages of creating a game plan, finalizing their roster, and selecting starters who will see the field on gameday. This is also the time where fantasy championships are won and lost, as even the smallest stories out of camp can indicate who the next fantasy stud may be. Only the first person in your league to pick up a player will be the one to benefit from his production, making training camp a crucial time for fantasy owners. With that, here are some backfields that you need to keep an eye on during training camp.
New England Patriots:
In typical Patriots fashion, just as they seemed to find a lead running back in Dion Lewis at the end of last year, the organization decided to let Lewis go in free agency. Lewis finished the season as the 16th best running back in fantasy, leaving a lot of fantasy points free for the taking now that Lewis is gone. Burkhead’s solid performance last year would have been enough to land the starting role, but 1st round pick Sony Michel and free agent signing Jeremy Hill have created a very murky backfield.
Michel is being drafted as the starting RB in drafts, although the job is by no means his just yet. Even if Michel does prove himself in camp, it’s important to note that Belichick is famous for using a RBBC. He is also famous for throwing rookies in the dog-house for fumbling the ball, which Michel did frequently in college. That being said, Michel is clearly the most talented RB in the backfield. Burkhead should also play a big part of the offense, considering he is a skilled receiver and is also expected to fill the goal line RB role.
FANTASY PREDICTION: Burkhead finishes as the best fantasy RB in New England thanks to his consistent play and versatility. Michel finishes as a boom or bust flex play with the potential to put up 20 points any given week. James White becomes a valuable bench player in PPR leagues while both Jeremy Hill and Mike Gillislee find themselves the odd men out of the lineup.
Cleveland Browns:
The Cleveland Browns completely overhauled their offense this off season, adding new pieces in both free agency and through the draft. Two of these new pieces figure to be the two leading rushers for the franchise, Carlos Hyde acquired in free agency and Nick Chubb selected in the 2nd round of the draft. This situation is set to be one of the most annoying in 2018, considering the Browns have said multiple times that they will go with the “hot hand” in the regular season. Compounded with the fact that Todd Haley’s offenses have historically featured less than average rushing attempts, it is clear that the Cleveland backfield may be a fantasy disaster.
Hyde has been a player surrounded by hype in previous off seasons, as he has proven he is talented enough to be a successful RB in this league, although consistency issues and nagging injuries have put a negative mark on his career. Last year was Hyde’s first full 16 game season of his career, which brings into question Hyde’s ability to overcome the odds and play another full 16 game season. Chubb is a similar style, hard-running back like Hyde who will serve nicely as a change-of-pace back to keep Hyde fresh and healthy.
FANTASY PREDICTION: Hyde comes out on top of the battle, although Chubb still sees a significant amount of carries. Hyde finishes as a top 30 RB while Chubb becomes valuable as a bench player with high upside if Hyde gets hurt.
Cincinnati Bengals:
The Cincinnati Bengals rushing attack was nothing spectacular in 2017, putting it nicely. They tied for 29th in the league with 3.6 yards per carry, and finished with only 1,366 total rushing yards, ranking 31st in the league only above the historically bad Lions RB group. This result was mostly caused by questionable free agency decisions prior to the 2017 season, when the Bengals decided to let two good offensive lineman in Andrew Witworth and Kevin Zeitler go without attempting to resign them. That being said, the Bengals have made efforts to repair the O-line this off season in trading for LT Cordy Glenn and drafting C Billy Price in the first round.
Joe Mixon comes in as the presumed starter in this backfield, carrying the rock 178 times, but carries on the Bengals may be more up for grabs than currently thought due to the fact that Giovani Bernard was a significantly more efficient runner last year. Training camp will be a crucial time for both of these backs as camp will determine what percentage of carries each RB earns in the regular season. If Mixon fails to show improved efficiency, this backfield may look more like a two-way split than a rushing attack led by Mixon and complemented by Bernard.
FANTASY PREDICTION: Joe Mixon keeps the starting job and finishes as a solid RB2. Bernard finishes the season as a low end flex player in standard leagues and a decent flex in PPR leagues.
Indianapolis Colts:
While the Colts haven’t been known for having a potent rushing attack in recent years, the team still supported a top 20 RB in Frank Gore despite having a lackluster offensive attack without Andrew Luck. Now that Gore is gone, the team came into the off season expecting Marlon Mack, or the Mack Attack, to head the RB corps, but also drafted RBs Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins to add competition to the backfield. The Colts also hired Frank Reich as their head coach, who just a season ago coached the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the best rushing offense in the NFL. This coaching addition looks good overall for the Colts run game, but it should be noted that Reich spread the ball among multiple guys in the RB room in 2017.
Mack showed traits of an explosive RB at times last year, although consistency was an issue. It is Mack who is spending the most time working with the starters, and if he can learn to produce on a more consistent basis Mack can be a potential break out candidate at RB. That being said, Jordan Wilkins has also been receiving rave reviews at camp. On the subject of Jordan Wilkins, head coach Frank Reich recently noted that Wilkins is “making a very good impression” also stating that “he’s showing the ability to play on all 3 downs”. This starting job is completely up in the air, and even though Mack has the veteran’s advantage now, it will ultimately be the best RB to land the bulk of the carries in 2018.
FANTASY PREDICTION: Thanks to Reich’s system, both Mack and Wilkins become the two RBs featured in the offense, with Wilkins being counted on for consistent production and Mack being relied on as a home run hitter. Both RBs finish with nearly the same amount of points and as top 30 RBs. Nyheim Hines fills a Duke Johnson type role for the Colts, although his fantasy production this year only makes him worth a bench spot in deeper leagues.
Tennessee Titans:
With Demarco Murray gone, it looked as though Derrick Henry was finally lined up to take the full load in the Tennessee backfield, but this ideal fantasy situation was shattered thanks to the Titans bringing in Dion Lewis with a hefty contract. Both the Titans rushing attack and offensive line took a step back in 2017 from the remarkable rushing attack in 2016 that featured a top 5 RB in Demarco Murray, but a bounce back can be expected thanks to new coaching and expectedly better season from Marcus Mariota.
Derrick Henry is the presumed favorite to win the job considering he isn’t new to the team like Lewis, but Henry will find it difficult to hold off Lewis for carries. Lewis not only finished as a top 20 RB in fantasy last year, but he did so averaging an outstanding 5.0 yards per carry along with the highest catch rate among RBs. Despite his size, Lewis was also one of the most effective RBs last year, ranking 1st with 2.56 yards created per carry and 6th with 84 evaded tackles. While all of this is good news for Lewis, the bad news arises when examining his lengthy injury history. This injury history is so extensive that Lewis’s healthy season last year should be considered an anomaly. Lewis was also rarely used on the goal line last year, only getting two carries throughout the entire season, which alludes to the likely certainty that Henry will get all goal-to-go responsibilities in the Titans offense.
FANTASY PREDICTION: Henry finishes as a RB2 with a low yardage total but the potential to put up 10 or more rushing touchdowns. Lewis becomes a solid flex play in the weeks that he plays, although he should be expected to miss a few games.
Denver Broncos:
The Denver Broncos released a 1,000 yard rusher in C.J. Anderson in the off season, leaving a lot of carries and yards free for the taking in the Denver backfield. Devontae Booker hasn’t shown the ability to be able to take over the lead job in the past two years, which motivated the Broncos to select “Rolls Royce” Freeman in the 3rd round. Freeman immediately became a favorite among industry experts as well as casual fantasy players due to the opportunity that presented itself as the Broncos lead RB in a sneaky good, new look offense led by Case Keenum.
Freeman is currently being drafted as the heavy favorite to win the job at the RB26 position, but reports out of Broncos camp indicate that Booker, with an average draft position of RB53, is getting first team reps. Multiple beat writers are also under the belief that it will be Booker, not Freeman, who starts Week 1. Booker still has to make significant strides as a rusher to be considered a worthy starting RB, but his receiving skills will give him guaranteed time on the field. At this point, it seems like Freeman needs to prove that he is a significantly better rusher than Booker if he wants to see the bulk of carries in Denver.
FANTASY PREDICTION: Booker starts the season as the lead back, but gets out carried by Freeman at the end of the season. That being said, neither back finishes as a top 25 RB.