Late Round Draft Values: Quarterbacks
In the past 5 years, only 52% of quarterbacks drafted in the top-10 at the position have finished inside the top-10. The league is full of great quarterback talent and there’s never been a better time to wait on one in your fantasy draft. Yes, getting Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, or Russell Wilson on your fantasy team would be great. But, you can draft more RB’s and WR’s, positions with less depth, in place of those picks and get similar QB production far later in the draft. Here are some QB’s being drafted late who have a shot at finishing in the top 10 QB this season.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
Current ADP: 9.09, QB12
Ryan was the league MVP in 2016 and QB3 in fantasy that year. He’s now going into his second season with Steve Sarkisian as his offensive coordinator. Last season, Ryan threw his lowest touchdown total (20) since his rookie season. It is very unlikely he’ll repeat what was clearly a fluke, especially with proven top tier receiver Julio Jones, the addition of first-round receiver Calvin Ridley, and Steve Sarkisian becoming more and more familiar with his offense.
Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
Current ADP: 11.01, QB16
Goff is part of what might be the league’s most high powered offense, and an offense that added Brandin Cooks. Sean McVay proved last year that he’s one of the best young minds in coaching, and his offense led to Goff finishing last season as fantasy’s QB10. Last season, Goff averaged 12.9 yards per completion-the highest in the league. He made an enormous leap between his rookie and sophomore seasons, increasing his QBR when blitzed from 71.9 to 105.9 and his QBR under pressure from 47.5 to 74.1. In a well-coached offense with a lot of playmakers, Goff is due for another big jump.
Eli Manning, New York Giants
Current ADP: 13.07, QB21
Very few offenses in this league have as many weapons as Eli does. With Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, and #2 overall pick Saquon Barkley, this offense will have some firepower. Eli faces the 8th easiest schedule for quarterbacks this year with a new Head Coach that made Case Keenum look great last year and made him fantasy’s QB14. With Manning getting more protection this year with a better offensive scheme, he’s ready for a bounce back year.
Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears
Current ADP: 14.06, QB24
Trubisky showed flashes of being a dependable franchise quarterback last year and that was with very little offense around him. This season, he has the 4th easiest schedule among quarterbacks. Last year, Alex Smith was able to complete 2/3 of his passes in an offense centered around short, high percentage passes. This efficient offense allowed Smith, who is not considered a top tier NFL quarterback, to finish as QB3 in fantasy. Smith's OC from last year, Matt Nagy, is now Trubisky’s head coach - could Trubisky be Nagy's next average-QB-turned-stud?