PPR Value Picks – Running Backs
In the past 5 years, only 59% of running backs drafted in the top-20 at the position have finished as a top-20 RB. There has been a lot of emphasis this year on getting running backs early and often in your draft, and there is definitely merit to this strategy. The drop-off in running backs, in terms of projections, is massive. But when it comes to where they’ll actually finish, the gap won’t be quite as wide. You can get a lot of solid running back talent later in the draft, and here’s who you should be targeting!
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Jordan Howard, Chicago Bears
Current ADP: 3.04, RB14
Last year, Kareem Hunt emerged as an absolute workhorse in Matt Nagy’s offense. Now, it’s Jordan Howard’s time. Nagy said recently that he believes Howard is a three down back, and plans to use him as such. Howard was RB13 last year in an unimpressive offense. The Bears made moves this year to put better offensive players around him like Allen Robinson, rookie Anthony Miller, and Trey Burton. With these new pieces and Trubisky’s progression, the Bears workhorse will see less crowded boxes all year long. Also, many fantasy players worry about matchups when setting their lineups. If this is you, you want Jordan Howard. Howard will face the easiest schedule for RB’s in 2018.
Lamar Miller, Houston Texans
Current ADP: 6.02, RB25
Lamar Miller has finished as a top-20 fantasy running back in each of his 2 seasons with the Texans, and he did this with an offense that posed little-to-no passing threat. With a healthy Deshaun Watson forcing defenses to respect the pass, this should really open things up in the box for Miller. It’s worth noting he averaged 14.9 PPG with Watson compared to only 9.9 with Tom Savage in 2017, which makes it clear that the presence of that passing threat matters for his fantasy production. With D’Onta Foreman likely starting the season on the PUP list, Miller should see an increase in both opportunity and productivity in 2018.
Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current ADP: 6.07, RB27
Jones will have to win the job during the season due to a lackluster preseason, but...
Mr. Opportunity! With Jameis Winston suspended for the first 4 weeks, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see this team go run heavy. With guys like Mike Evans, Desean Jackson, Cameron Brate, and OJ Howard, the box will never be crowded. Things will be nice and open for the young buck, who plays with a similar style to Jamaal Charles. The Bucs clearly don’t have faith in Jacquizz Rodgers to be their starter (maybe just Barber); otherwise they wouldn’t have used an early second-round pick on Ronald Jones. A staff writer at the Tampa Bay Times says Jones “should get 15 to 20 touches per game”. Mr. Opportunity is poised for a big rookie campaign, if he can seperate himself from Peyton Barber, Charles Sims, and Quizz Rodgers.
Chris Thompson, Washington Redskins
Current ADP: 9.04, RB35
Despite being a backup, Chris Thompson is ready for a big year. He finished last year as fantasy’s RB26 playing in only 10 games. He actually averaged more yards per touch than reigning offensive Rookie of the Year Alvin Kamara. Had he carried his average, a mere 9 PPG, across the games he missed last year, he would have finished as RB16. Over the last five years, there have been 265 running backs who totaled at least 100 touches, and Thompson’s 1.47 PPR points per touch land him in second of those near 300. He’ll be heavily utilized as a pass catcher in what is consistently a strong and aggressive Redskins offense, especially with Derrius Guice out for the year. Over the last couple of years, we’ve seen Alex Smith make a living off of getting short, high percentage passes to his playmakers in space and letting them win open field battles. This poses a great opportunity for Thompson, an elite backfield receiving option.