PPR Value Picks - Wide Receivers
In the past 5 years only 58.8% of wide receivers drafted in the first two rounds have finished as a top-10 wide receiver. Antonio Brown has finished as WR1 in fantasy football for the past 4 years. To find another player who repeated even two years in a row as #1 at their position, you’d have to go back to 2002-2003 Daunte Culpepper. You won’t find better consistency in fantasy football than Antonio Brown. But unfortunately, this kind of certainty isn’t found with every receiver in the draft pool. In case you don’t get your hands on any of the guys going in the first couple rounds, here’s a couple of guys that you can target late who could give you some top tier production!
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Marvin Jones, Detroit Lions
Current ADP: 6.10, WR26
In 2017, Marvin Jones finished as WR11 in fantasy PPR scoring and WR5 in standard scoring. Regardless of how your league scores, Jones returned much better value than you spent on him. He found the endzone every 11.9 targets, an occurrence that wide receivers across the league averaged every 22.9 targets in 2017. At 6’2”, he became Matthew Stafford’s go-to redzone option, earning 43% of Detroit’s redzone targets. Jones also averaged an NFL high 18 yards per reception, led the league in yards on contested catches (467), and posted at least one play of 20+ yards in 14 out of his 16 games. In 2017, Matthew Stafford finished 4th in passing attempts, 6th in completion percentage, 3rd in passing yards, and 4th in passing touchdowns. In a pass heavy offense that is going into yet another year with an uncertain run game, Marvin Jones has the opportunity to repeat his 2017 production.
Pierre Garcon, San Francisco 49ers
Current ADP: 8.09, WR32
Pierre Garcon was averaging 9 targets per game last year and was ranked WR20, without having found the endzone, before suffering a season-ending neck injury. He was on pace for 134 targets, 80 receptions and 1,000 receiving yards and that was without Jimmy Garoppolo. Those numbers would have put Garcon at WR24, assuming he went the rest of the year without crossing the goal line. His competition in the WR room is now Marqise Goodwin and Dante Pettis, who are both used primarily for deep threats. On top of that, Garcon faces the 12th easiest schedule for WR’s this year in an offense coached by Mike Shanahan. Shanahan was the OC in Atlanta in 2016 and his top 3 receivers combined for over 2,600 yards. Without the presence of an elite WR like he had in Julio Jones, that yardage will be split more evenly. But there is reason to believe Garcon will get most of Garoppolo’s targets. Since 2009, Garcon is the 6th most targeted receiver in the NFL. Garcon will emerge as Jimmy G’s top target early on, and Garoppolo will look for him often just like all of Garcon’s quarterbacks have over the years.
Current ADP: 9.03, WR34
If you have Aaron Rodgers, and you have a 3-man RB committee, you’re going to throw the ball. A lot. In 2016, Rodgers threw the 4th most passes in the NFL. In 2017, Rodgers was on pace to throw the 8th most passes in the NFL prior to hurting his shoulder. This team likes to air it out. Cobb is entering 2018 as Green Bay’s #2 WR in an offense where he’ll no longer be fighting for targets with Rodgers’ former favorite, Jordy Nelson. In 2016, Nelson was targeted 152 times. Those 152 targets will now be divided among the Packers’ receiving options, and Cobb is in a great position to take the bulk of them, despite receiving nearly 90 targets already from Rodgers in 2016. In the 5 games completed by Rodgers in 2017, Cobb caught 30 of 45 targets for 302 yards and 2 TD’s. That stretches to 96 catches for 966 yards and 6 touchdowns had Rodgers remained healthy. That’s 228 PPR points, which would have been enough to make Cobb WR10. Adding to those totals what he’ll be taking from Jordy’s target share, Cobb has the opportunity in 2018 to crack the top 6 or 7. Cobb is also the longest tenured Packers receiver and likely has the best chemistry with Rodgers. In years where they’ve both been healthy, Cobb has finished as WR6, WR19, and WR31. He is currently going in round 9 and is almost guaranteed to provide far better value. Randall Cobb is a steal this year.
Current ADP: 10.02, WR39
Robby Anderson came out of nowhere last season and stormed his way up to fantasy’s WR17 in an offense that didn’t have much else to offer. Anderson finished last year in the top 20 in targets (113), receiving yards (941), and receiving touchdowns (14). His draft stock dropped tremendously due to off-field troubles, but felony charges were dropped and that should prevent any long-term suspension from hitting Anderson. Since entering the league, Anderson ranks 6th in the NFL in receptions of 20+ yards with 27 such catches. With a shaky quarterback situation that will potentially end with McCown starting come week 1, Anderson should be an instant start. Anderson received nearly 30% of McCown’s targets last season and the rapport that they’ve established should keep that target share high despite the return of Quincy Enunwa. Anderson is a polished route runner and bona fide deep threat that is absolutely worth drafting at his current ADP. A 10th round pick on Anderson is guaranteed to return far better value than you’re spending.