PPR Value Picks – Tight Ends
In the past 5 years, only 46.7% of TE’s drafted in the top-3 have finished the season ranked as a top-3 TE. I know it’s tempting to grab Gronk when he’s sitting there for you at the end of the 2nd/beginning of the 3rd round, but you’re really running a huge risk. Rob Gronkowski hasn’t started 16 games in a season since 2011, and has started 10 or fewer in 3 of his last 5 seasons. Same situation with Zach Ertz. Ertz has never started 16 games, and has started less than 10 games in 3 of his 5 pro seasons. Travis Kelce is the most dependable of the unanimous top-3 this year, having started 16, 15, and 15 games the last 3 years, respectively. But he’s now going into his first year with Patrick Mahomes throwing to him, so we’ll see how that plays out. These guys can win you your week when they’re in, but their injury risk and what it costs to get them begs the question of whether or not they’re worth it. If you don’t think they are, here are some guys you can target much later in your draft that could return more consistent TE1 production this year!
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Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings
Current ADP: 7.09, TE7
There is one TE in the NFL who has caught 5 touchdown passes in each of the last 3 seasons, and he wears #82 in the purple and gold. Rudolph finished 2016 as fantasy’s TE2 and finished 2017 as fantasy’s TE8. While the ceiling isn’t quite as high as the aforementioned top 3, repeated top-8 production is nothing to sleep on. Partner that consistency with the quarterback who has completed more passes to TE’s than anybody else since 2015, and you find Kyle Rudolph in an incredible position to be top-8 yet again, and you could think of that as his floor. Ranking 3rd among all positions in redzone targets over the last 3 years, Rudolph does in fact have the potential to finish this season as fantasy’s TE1, and you can get him in the 7th round.
Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans
Current ADP: 8.04, TE8
There is only one TE in fantasy football who has finished as a top-5 TE each of the last 3 years. There is also only one active TE in the NFL with 60+ catches in each of the last 5 seasons. This TE finished 2017 as TE4, 2016 as TE5, 2015 as TE3, and 2014 as TE8. Consistency, thy name is Delanie Walker. He suffered a slight regression in his TD total last year, which was clearly a fluke as it was his lowest since 2012. His rapport with Marcus Mariota is proven in his catch and yardage totals, as well as receiving over 100 targets in each of the last 4 seasons. He heads into the 2018 campaign facing the 4th easiest schedule for TE’s and is poised for yet another huge season. His current ADP in the 8th round guarantees to return far better value than you’re spending.
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
Current ADP: 13.08, TE15
Take a look at the situation Njoku finds himself in this season. He was already able to find the endzone 4 times last year, really capitalizing on his miniscule target share. Now he’s waiting to see which one of his TE loving quarterbacks is going to win the starting job. In 2017, Tyrod Taylor ranked only 25th in total pass attempts but still ranked 12th in pass attempts to a tight end. Charles Clay was only on the field for 47% of Buffalo’s snaps last season but ran routes on over 90% of his pass plays. When Tyrod has his TE out there, he loves to get him involved. Baker Mayfield, in 14 games at Oklahoma last season, found his TE Mark Andrews 62 times for nearly 1,000 yards and 8 TD’s. Andrews emerged early on as Baker’s favorite target and Baker looked his way a lot. In Njoku’s final year at Miami, before being drafted in the first round, he caught only 43 passes in 12 games, and was able to turn that into 698 yards and 8 TD’s. This is clearly a man who knows how to capitalize on his opportunities. At 6’4”, with a 37.5” vertical leap and 4.64 40 speed, Njoku poses a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. Let’s not ignore the fact that Taylor and Mayfield both found Njoku for a TD in the Browns’ first preseason game. Regardless of who wins the QB battle this year, Njoku is in a great spot to have a breakout year and you could get him in the 13th round.
Vernon Davis, Washington Redskins
Current ADP: 13.10, TE20
It is a near guarantee that Jordan Reed will go down again this year. I hate to say it as a football fan, but Reed has never played more than 14 games in a season in his 5-year career, and he’s never even started 10. This opens up a great opportunity for Vernon Davis, the ageless wonder. Last year, Davis was TE13 on a fantasy PPG basis in the 10 games that Jordan Reed missed. He steps into 2018 facing the 11th easiest schedule for TE’s and is reunited with his former 49er teammate, Alex Smith. Over the last 3 years, no QB in the NFL has targeted TE’s more than Smith. Also, in Vernon Davis’ 13-year career, 50% of his TD’s have been thrown by Alex Smith. His current ADP is round 13, but you can probably get him undrafted. When Jordan Reed inevitably goes down with an injury, Vernon Davis immediately becomes a must start on your fantasy team.