WR Breakdown: AFC East Edition
The depth chart for a NFL team can only tell you so much. Sometimes a WR3 on one team may be more fantasy relevant than the WR1 on another. In this series we will be breaking down each team’s WR group and letting you know who is worth drafting:
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Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills have been a run first offense for the past few years and still figure to be in 2018 as long as Lesean McCoy avoids suspension. The quarterback room consisting of Josh Allen, Nathan Peterman, and A.J. McCarron is further proof that the Bills will not have a prolific passing attack in the upcoming season. Despite this, Kelvin Benjamin looks primed for a solid fantasy season as the only starting caliber WR on the team. He is a tall receiver who should be a reliable red zone threat and could come close to seeing double digit touchdowns this year. Being the most talented WR by far, he should also see 120+ targets which is a good sign for his fantasy numbers. The Bills traded for Corey Coleman earlier in the off season due to a clear lack of talent at the position in Buffalo, and while this addition may help the Bills’ offense significantly, it’s unlikely the move will have much of a fantasy impact.
Kelvin Benjamin (ADP Round 10.04) - Low end WR3
Corey Coleman (Undrafted) - Not worth a bench spot
Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins’ WRs aren’t exactly attractive options to invest in but a case could be made for each to have sneaky upside. DeVante Parker is the most talented of the bunch, but he has yet to put together a solid fantasy season since being drafted in 2014 thanks to injury. His injury history continues to lengthen now that Parker is out for a couple weeks thanks to a broken finger. Each year the fantasy community has been waiting for him to break out, but it’s worth noting the more consistent option over the past couple years in Miami has been Kenny Stills. Stills though is also dealing with an injury (ankle) that jeopardizes his availability for week 1. Starting the past 2 years for Miami, Stills has averaged 787 yards and 7.5 touchdown on 93 targets, which should go up now that Miami let Landry and his 161 targets go to the Browns. Most of these targets though should be taken up by Danny Amendola, who now fits in as the slot receiver to fill the void left by Landry. Although the Dolphins will likely pass frequently due to game script, it’s unlikely this offense supports more than 1 reliable fantasy receiver each week with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. Along with the fact that there is no clear cut WR1 in this offense, it’s likely that there is a different receiver each week that leads in targets, but the edge should go to Amendola who is the only one not dealing with injury issues.
Kenny Stills (ADP Round 13.01) - Boom/Bust bench WR
DeVante Parker (ADP Round 13.10) - Boom/Bust bench WR
Danny Amendola (Undrafted) - Bench WR with consistent production
New England Patriots
The Patriots have had one of the best fantasy offenses for the past decade, and this offense should still feature multiple fantasy relevant players in 2018. The player leading the WR group figures to be Chris Hogan, who despite being the third option in the passing offense last year behind Gronk and Brandin Cooks, was the 7th best WR before falling to injury in week 8. This indicates that Hogan was on track to be at least a top 15 WR last year, and now that Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola are gone he should figure to see even more targets. One reason to dampen Hogan’s expectations is the fact that Julian Edelman is coming back after being injured all last year. Even though Edelman has played with Tom Brady for a long time, don’t expect Edelman to be targeted over Hogan when he comes back week 5 from suspension. Despite playing with Tom Brady since 2009, Edelman has only finished as a top 20 WR once in his career. Edelman has also never scored more than 7 touchdowns which severely limits his upside. Eric Decker is another option in the Patriots’ offense that has intrigued some fantasy owners thanks to his impressive resume, but so far he’s had a rocky start with the team and isn’t even a lock to make the final roster.
Chris Hogan (ADP Round 5.09) - WR2 with WR1 upside
Julian Edelman (ADP Round 8.10) - WR3 once back from suspension
Eric Decker (Undrafted) - Not worth a bench spot
New York Jets
It’s looking more and more likely that the Jets start either Sam Darnold or Teddy Bridgewater over last year’s starter Josh McCown. Both of these possible options would likely have a negative effect on an already weak WR group for the Jets, as McCown succeeded in airing out the ball while Darnold and Bridgewater will need time to adjust to the NFL game due to inexperience and injury, respectively. Whoever the starting QB turns out to be, his #1 option in the passing game will be Robby Anderson. Anderson broke out last year as a top 15 WR on a team many would previously consider a fantasy wasteland. It would be foolish to ignore Anderson’s potential upside this year even though his ADP is low. Jermaine Kearse is the assumed WR2 in this offense, and although he had a decent year finishing as a top 35 WR in 2017, it should be noted he ranked top 20 in snaps above receivers like Keenan Allen, Michael Thomas, and Stefon Diggs. It shouldn’t come as a surprise when I say this snap total will decrease significantly, as it is likely Anderson sees the most snaps as WR1 on the Jets.
Robby Anderson (ADP Round 9.06) - WR3 with WR2 upside
Jermaine Kearse (Undrafted) - Worth a bench spot in deeper leagues