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TE Breakdown - NFC North Edition


The league today is full of great TE talent. So much so that it can be hard to know who you want to roll with for your fantasy team. There are currently TE’s being drafted as early as pick 22 and as late as pick 173. It can be hard to tell who is worth their ADP, who you should avoid, and who could wind up being a late round steal. Throughout this series, we will break down the TE depth charts and fantasy potential of each team, 1 division at a time. (12 team, standard scoring)

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Chicago Bears

There might not be another fantasy player who has done less to deserve their hype than Trey Burton, but he’s considered by so many to be the breakout player of 2018, which isn’t crazy. Here are the facts: He signed a 4 year/$32 million deal with the Bears, and you don’t give a player that kind of money if you don’t plan to get him heavily involved. On top of that, it’s Matt Nagy’s offense. If you want to see how Nagy’s offense utilizes a TE, just take a look at Travis Kelce’s production over the last few years. Finally, and most importantly, he filled in very nicely in the 2 games Ertz didn’t play last year, catching 7 passes for 112 yards and 3 TD’s. Currently the 7th TE off the board, Burton could emerge as a great mid-round pick if he lives up to the hype. Adam Shaheen would be a name to keep an eye on if Burton has to miss any time next year, purely due to how much Nagy’s offense likes to utilize the TE. Shaheen showed the ability to be productive last year, posting two 4 catch/40+ yard/1 TD performances after Zach Miller’s injury. He’ll be lightly involved in the offense but not enough to hurt Burton’s fantasy prospects.

1. Trey Burton (ADP: 7.03, TE7) – TE1 upside, could be 2018’s breakout player

2. Adam Shaheen (ADP: Undrafted) – Not worth a roster spot if Burton is healthy

Detroit Lions

I don’t think there is a lot of fantasy value to be found in Detroit’s TE room this year. Luke Willson is currently slated to be their starter, but the concern is that he’s always been just a backup. His best season came in 2014 where he caught only 22 passes (a lousy 55% catch rate) for 362 yards and 3 TD’s. He’s a big target at 6’5” and 250 pounds so he may wind up vulturing a few TD’s from Detroit’s RB’s and WR’s, but not enough to provide fantasy relevance this year. Last year, Detroit had a clear TE1 in Eric Ebron and he received 86 targets while appearing in all 16 games. That's fewer than Golden Tate and Marvin Jones, and only 15 more than Theo Riddick. There is good reason to believe that a new TE will fall behind all 3 of those guys in targets, and likely behind Kenny Golladay too. Michael Roberts and Levine Toilolo seek to provide some production as well, but until any of these 3 are able to prove otherwise, none of them are worth a roster spot.

1. Luke Willson (ADP: Undrafted) – Not worth a roster spot

2. Michael Roberts (ADP: Undrafted) – Not worth a roster spot

3. Levine Toilolo (ADP: Undrafted) – Not worth a roster spot

Green Bay Packers

It seems like it was just yesterday I watched Jimmy Graham explode for 1,215 yards and 16(!) TD’s. Unfortunately, in the 4 seasons since then, his TD max has dropped to 10 and his yardage max to 923 – still very high numbers for the TE position, but a shell of who he was in New Orleans. But now he heads on up to Green Bay to be paired with a quarterback who consistently plays at the highest level, so maybe we’ll see the old Jimmy Graham come alive again. He was TE6 last year, but his fantasy points were heavily TD dependent. He led the position in TD’s, but ranked 17th in receiving yards. He posted a poor catch rate (59.4%), and only caught 57 passes for 520 yards. This TD dependency worries me because, in the last 5 years, only 16% of Aaron Rodgers’ TD passes have been caught by TE’s. In fact, the Packers haven’t even had a top-8 fantasy TE since Jermichael Finley. It doesn’t help that he faces a tough schedule in 2018. But here’s the upside: Graham is still a matchup nightmare in the redzone and could emerge as Aaron Rodgers’ new top redzone target with Jordy Nelson now in Oakland. Graham was in fact 2nd overall in redzone targets last season among all players. I like Jimmy Graham this year due to his high ceiling, just not in the 5th round.

Jimmy Graham (ADP: 5.02, TE4) – High-end TE1 upside

Minnesota Vikings

Only 1 TE in the league has caught 5 TD passes each of the last 3 seasons. He’s 3rd in the league among all positions in redzone targets over that same time period. And he rocks #82 for the Vikes. Kyle Rudolph was TE2 after the 2016 season and was TE8 after the 2017 season. Take Rudolph’s consistent production and partner him with Kirk Cousins, the QB who has completed the most passes to TE’s since 2015, and Rudolph finds himself with a massive opportunity in 2018. He has started 16 games each of the last 3 seasons, so you don’t find yourself with the same injury concerns as you have with guys like Gronk or Ertz. The price currently being paid for Rudolph is a steal given his high-end TE1 upside this year.

Kyle Rudolph (ADP: 7.05, TE8) – High-end TE1 upside, high-end TE2 floor


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