Play/Stay Away: Week 1
The time has come! Week 1 is here, and so is Fantasy Football Live’s first Play/Stay Away column of the year. This article will be published every Thursday throughout the fantasy season. Plenty of players in fantasy football are matchup proof and should be started no matter what, but others come with a few more question marks. We will use previous performances, recent increases/decreases in opportunity, and weekly matchups to let you know each week which guys at each position you should play, and from which guys you should stay away.
Quarterbacks
Play:
Drew Brees (vs. Tampa Bay)
Expect some of Drew Brees’ biggest fantasy games this year to come during Ingram’s 4 game suspension. Without 2 quality RB’s, the Saints will be forced to return to their old strategy of putting the ball in Drew’s hands and letting him go to work. Tampa Bay’s defense is the 23rd ranked defense against QB’s in fantasy, so Brees is a must start in week 1.
Cam Newton (vs. Dallas)
Cam Newton isn’t quite the quarterback that Rodgers or Brady is, but when it comes to fantasy, his rushing ability more than makes up for that. They have a lot of weapons around him in Carolina, and he faces Dallas in week 1. Dallas’ defense, and especially their secondary, has a lot of question marks and makes Newton a must start this week.
Matthew Stafford (vs. NYJ)
Stafford is coming off of his 7th consecutive 4K yard season and is heading into another year with a questionable running game. He has 3 solid receivers in Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, and Kenny Golladay as well as a great pass catching back in Theo Riddick. The Jets allowed the 3rd highest average points to QB’s last year at 18.3, so Stafford is a must start in a home game against them to open the season.
Stay Away:
Jimmy Garoppolo (@ Minnesota)
We’re all ready for the Jimmy G era in SF, but I don’t think it gets off to a hot start in week 1 on their trip to Minnesota. Minnesota’s defense allowed an average of 11.6 points to QB’s last season, and I don’t believe there is enough talent in the SF receiving corps to get the better of guys like Xavier Rhodes (a 2016 and 2017 Pro Bowler and 2017 First Team All Pro), Harrison Smith (a 2015, 2016, and 2017 Pro Bowler and 2017 First Team All Pro), and Trae Waynes. Also, expect Jimmy to be under a lot of pressure from edge rushers Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter, which could force him to make some bad decisions.
Nick Foles (vs. Atlanta)
Yes, he’s the reigning Super Bowl MVP but look into his regular season stats when he took over the starting job last year. In his 3 regular season starts of the 2017 season, Foles averaged 146.3 yards, 1.67 TD’s, and 10.67 standard league fantasy points. These numbers are skewed, as 237 of those 439 yards and 4 of those 5 TD’s came in one game against the Giants, and the following two were bad performances against bad pass defenses in Oakland and Dallas. Philly has a run game that doesn’t intimidate defenses and for the foreseeable future, no Alshon Jeffery. Facing a solid defense in Atlanta, I’d look elsewhere for your QB in week 1.
Patrick Mahomes (@ LAC)
There is so much hype around Pat Mahomes this year, but I’d recommend finding another QB for your fantasy team until he proves himself as an NFL starter. There is a very small sample of him as an NFL starter, solely a game against Denver last year where he failed to throw a TD pass but did throw an interception. Facing a Chargers defense in week 1 that boasts arguably the best pass rush duo in the league in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, as well as one of PFF’s top CB’s of 2017 in Casey Hayward and first-round pick Safety Derwin James, Mahomes faces a big challenge to start the 2018 campaign.
Running Backs:
Play:
Joe Mixon (@ Indianapolis)
Mixon gets his first start of the year against Indianapolis, who allowed an average of 23.4 points to RB’s in 2017, the 11th worst in the league. Cincinnati experimented in the preseason with lining Mixon up as a receiver, and the Colts allowed the most yards per catch to RB’s in 2017 so what Mixon and the Bengals lack in the run game, you can expect them to make up for by getting him the ball in other ways. Upgrades to the offensive line in the offseason also bode well for Mixon’s 2018 fantasy prospects.
Alex Collins (vs. Buffalo)
In 2017, Collins was among the league leaders in forced missed tackles, yards after contact, and rushes of at least 10 yards. He is the clear #1 runner for Baltimore going into 2018, and he gets to start the season against Buffalo, a defense that allowed the 5th most yards per carry to RB’s in 2017. Going into this season, the Bills are the 32nd ranked rushing defense according to ESPN.com. The return of the previously injured Marshal Yanda should allow him to see better blocking up front, and his physicality should get him plenty of looks near the goal line.
Jordan Howard (@ Green Bay)
Howard is not an elite backfield receiver, but he puts up great fantasy numbers in spite of that. He was a top-10 RB in most formats by the end of last season, and he gets to start the year against Green Bay, the defense that allowed the 10th most fantasy points per game to RB’s in 2017. The Bears new HC said that he views Jordan Howard as a 3-down back and plans to use him as such, and facing Aaron Rodgers in week 1, Chicago should look to control the clock to keep him off the field. Howard should be able to see 20+ touches to start the 2018 campaign.
Stay Away:
James Conner (@ Cleveland)
So far, James Conner is the 2nd most added player in fantasy football, having been added in 56.3% of ESPN leagues. As much as I trust the Steelers offensive line, I would wait on inserting Conner into your starting lineup. He’s never had more than 5 carries or 26 yards in a regular season game, so he has a lot to prove before he becomes a reliable fantasy RB.
Marshawn Lynch (vs. LAR)
Unfortunately, Lynch is no longer the Beast that we saw in Seattle just a few years ago. He averaged only 59.4 yards per game in 2017 and offers very little as a backfield pass catcher. Despite a dependable offensive line in Oakland, a week 1 campaign against an interior defense made up of Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh could wreak havoc on Oakland’s backfield. It’ll be interesting to see how the RB roles emerge in Oakland under Gruden, but Lynch has a very tough matchup in week 1 and should be benched.
Jordan Wilkins (vs. Cincinnati)
Jordan Wilkins will get the start in week 1 due to a lingering hamstring injury to Marlon Mack. While he is first in line to lead the backfield in touches, his lack of NFL experience and unimpressive preseason performances combined with the talented front 7 present in Cincinnati make him a risky play in week 1. Like James Conner and Pat Mahomes, he has something to prove before earning a spot in your starting lineup.
Wide Receivers
Play:
Corey Davis (@ Miami)
Davis gets to start the year against the defense that allowed the 5th most receiving yards and 4th most yards per catch to WR’s in 2017. He’s the clear #1 receiver ahead of Rishard Matthews and the pesky hamstring injury that made him miss 5 games last season is no longer a problem. Don’t let his slow rookie year make you forget that Davis is the all-time FBS receiving yards leader. The talent is there. In what should be an improved passing attack, Davis’ role makes him a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3 in 2018.
Sterling Shepard (vs. Jacksonville)
Nobody wants to see any of their players going against the Jacksonville defense, but Shepard could be an exception. There is a lot of hype around the Odell Beckham/Jalen Ramsey matchup and the addition of Saquon Barkley to the Giants offense that Shepard is in great shape to fly under the radar and put up a big week 1 performance. He’ll be in the slot in Pat Shurmur’s offense, the same as Adam Thielen was last year when he emerged as an every week starter in fantasy. With Ramsey following Odell all over the field and A.J. Bouye covering Cody Latimer on the opposite side, look for Shepard to find himself with a lot of opportunity to provide sneaky fantasy value in week 1.
Juju Smith-Schuster (@ Cleveland)
Without Le’Veon Bell, it’s reasonable to expect the Steelers to throw the ball more than they have in the past. They won’t trust Conner as a runner to the same extent they trusted Bell, and Bell’s receiving targets (106 in 2017) will have to go elsewhere. Juju will definitely see an increase in snaps and target share from his rookie season, and he should be able to put up a nice week 1 performance with a matchup against Cleveland in week 1. Big Ben’s increased pass attempts and increased trust in Juju make him a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 in 2018.
Stay Away:
Pierre Garçon (@ Minnesota)
Garçon unfortunately missed half the season last year and now heads into his 11th season after just having turned 32. Jimmy Garoppolo so far looks like the best QB Garçon has had since he was 24 and catching passes from Peyton Manning in Indianapolis. I think he will see a lot of targets and provide WR3 fantasy value this year, but I don’t like him in week 1 due to the matchup. For the same reasons Jimmy G was on my stay away list, Garçon is on it as well. Expect him to see a lot of attention from both Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes, and the rest of 2017’s 8th ranked defense against WR’s. I’d look for WR/Flex play elsewhere this week.
Kelvin Benjamin (@ Baltimore)
Kelvin Benjamin looked like a rising star as a rookie and he didn’t pan out as such. In 2017, he averaged only 3.4 catches and only 49.4 yards per game. Nathan Peterman is getting the start in week 1 against the Ravens. In his first start last year, Peterman went 6 of 14 with 5 interceptions thrown. The Ravens allowed the 10th fewest yards to WR’s in 2017. For those reasons, Benjamin is a player you should stay away from in week 1.
Robby Anderson (@ Detroit)
Anderson emerged in 2017 as one of the league’s best deep threats and proved solid rapport with Josh McCown. The tricky part is, Sam Darnold is getting the week 1 nod as the Jets starter. Anderson will have his hands full in week 1 where he’ll likely be blanketed by Darius Slay and due to his deep threat ability, could see a lot of attention over the top from Glover Quin. It may take some time for Anderson and Darnold to get the connection down, and against a solid Detroit secondary, fantasy owners should show Anderson his way to the bench for week 1.
Tight Ends
Play:
Jordan Reed (@ Arizona)
If you drafted Jordan Reed this year, I respect your bravery. It’s nearly a guarantee that he’ll miss time due to injury, but for week 1, he’s ready to go. It’s his first regular season game with QB Alex Smith, and if you need to know whether or not Smith likes throwing to his TE, take a look at his good friend Travis Kelce’s stats from the last few years. Arizona allowed a nice 11.4 fantasy points per game to TE’s last year. Reed is a must start in week 1.
Delanie Walker (@ Miami)
Walker is as underappreciated yet also as trustworthy as they come. Walker received 24.5% of Mariota’s pass attempts last year and caught 66.7% of them. There’s no reason to believe these numbers will drop this year. He starts the year against Miami, the 32nd ranked fantasy defense against TE’s according to ESPN.com and 1 of just 3 teams to allow 1,000 yards to TE’s in 2017. He can still run and he can still catch, and he has more of Mariota’s trust than any other option in the offense. Walker is a must start in week 1.
Jack Doyle (vs. Cincinnati)
The preseason showed us that Doyle will likely be a staple of Andrew Luck’s passing offense in 2018 despite the presence of newly-acquired Eric Ebron. The Bengals have a history of struggling to defend TE’s, allowing the 8th most yards to the position in 2017. It’s not crazy to believe that Luck will be cautious about being hit in week 1, and nervous QB’s love their TE security blankets. Doyle has TE1 potential this week.
Stay Away:
George Kittle (@ Minnesota)
Kittle is the 3rd 49er of the week to make the stay away list, and it’s again for the same reason. Kittle is a 2018 fantasy breakout candidate but he faces a tough week 1 matchup going to Minnesota. The Vikings boast an elite defense that should suppress a lot of opposing offensive weapons, and Kittle is no exception. After losing their starting RB one week before the season opener, the SF offense is in a tough spot and will likely struggle against the Vikings dependable defense.
Charles Clay (@ Baltimore)
The second Buffalo Bill on the stay away list, it comes back to the QB play. I don’t trust Nathan Peterman, and I especially don’t trust this offense against the Baltimore defense. Clay has proved productive over the years but that was mostly with Tyrod Taylor under center. Peterman has a lot to prove before we start plugging his receiving options into our starting lineups.
Antonio Gates (vs. Kansas City)
A surefire Hall of Famer in Antonio Gates was just resigned by the Chargers in the last week. Last season, Gates was passed as the TE1 by Hunter Henry and caught only 30 passes for 316 yards and 3 TD’s. With Hunter Henry out for the season, Gates has some fantasy value again. Expect a poor man’s version of Jimmy Graham’s stat line from last year. His fantasy numbers will be heavily TD dependent, as he can’t run like he used to and provides little value over the middle of the field. While he has solid rapport with Rivers, he doesn’t have TE1 value in fantasy until he proves otherwise.