Play/Stay Away: Week 2
Week 2 is here! In my week 1 Play/Stay Away article, I'll admit I had a few misses, but I had even more hits. I said to start Mixon, who went for a nice 20 points. Brees and Newton were both on my play list and went for 29 and 18, respectively. The 3 WR's I advised fantasy owners to stay away from combined for 13 points. The 3 TE's I advised fantasy owners stay away from combined for 10 points. Where I'll admit I screwed up was Patrick Mahomes and James Conner. They've turned me into a believer and they, among 10 others, made my Play list this week. Check it out!
Quarterbacks
Play:
Philip Rivers (@ Buffalo)
How ‘bout them Chargers? Rivers threw for 424 yards, 3 TD’s, and 1 INT on Sunday. A casual 26-point performance in week 1 should have Rivers owners feeling good going forward. He has a nice matchup in week 2 against the Buffalo Bills, who gave up the 5th most points to a QB in week 1 despite the Ravens running the ball 34 times and only throwing 38. Rivers threw 51 times on Sunday and has averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game since 2014. Don’t expect him to slow down any time soon.
Drew Brees (vs. Cleveland)
You have to feel bad for Drew. He went out on Sunday and what did he do? He threw for 439 yards, 3 TD’s, and 0 INT’s on his way to posting a 40 spot on the scoreboard. What does his defense do? They gave up 42 points. His 95.9 PFF grade was the highest by a QB in a loss since Kurt Warner in week 3 of 2007. While this sucks for Drew’s real career, it means nothing for fantasy football. In fact, it probably helps. He was forced to throw the ball 45 times in this high scoring battle, completing 37 passes (82% completion). His accuracy, mistake-free play, and elite weapons around him make him the safest fantasy QB with the highest upside going forward.
Patrick Mahomes (@ Pittsburgh)
Mahomes lived up to the hype on Sunday. He threw for 256 yards, 4 TD’s, and didn’t turn the ball over even once on his way to his second win in as many games as an NFL QB. He and Tyreek Hill were on the same page all game, connecting on 7 throws for 169 yards and 2 TD’s. There is good reason to believe that Kelce’s production will increase, and with a run game that will continue to demand attention, Mahomes’ ceiling only gets higher. He’s a must-start in fantasy this week.
Stay Away:
Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs. Philadelphia)
Fitzmagic! Easily the most surprising performance in week 1, Fitz exploded for a career high 417 yards, threw 4 TD’s, ran for 36 yards, and bullied his way into the endzone for a rushing TD. But here’s why he’s still on my stay away list: We know who Ryan Fitzpatrick really is. He’s been in the league for 13 years. He’s a decent QB, one of the better backups in the league, but he’s not a 400+ yard and 4 TD’s per game type of QB. I think he does still have some fantasy value, but I don’t trust him as my starter until he proves consistent production. Don’t expect any more 40 point performances from Fitz this year.
Derek Carr (@ Denver)
I’m not sure what happened to the Derek Carr we all saw in 2016, but this is a completely different guy. He threw for a little over 300 yards in week 1, but never got one into the endzone and threw 3 INT’s, including arguably the worst INT ever thrown. The Rams defense is stacked, so I’m sure that didn’t help Carr, but it also doesn’t bode well for him in week 2. He gets Denver on the road, where he’ll have to hope his receivers can get separation from Chris Harris Jr. and Bradley Roby while also trying to steer clear of Von Miller. Avoid Derek Carr in week 2.
Dak Prescott (vs. NYG)
Speaking of QB’s who are shells of their 2016 selves, let’s talk about Dak Prescott. 170 yards, 0 TD’s, and 1 fumble in week 1. Injuries and the absence of Travis Frederick hurts the Dallas o-line, which hurt Ezekiel Elliott’s performances out of the backfield, and it all culminates in defenses forcing Dak to beat them through the air…something he hasn’t proven he can do yet. The lack of talent in the Dallas WR room certainly doesn’t help either. The Giants defense played well last week and held the Jags’ run-heavy offense to just 1 TD, and they shouldn’t struggle against Dallas either.
Running Backs
Play:
James Conner (vs. Kansas City)
Despite what might be the worst haircut in the NFL since Tim Tebow’s rookie hazing, Conner, in his first NFL start, ran for 135 yards and 2 TD’s while adding 5 catches for 57 yards. He was the 2nd highest scoring RB, behind only reigning OROY Alvin Kamara. Conner is all of a sudden one of the few RB’s in the league who poses such a threat both on the ground and through the air, which doesn’t bode well for the Chiefs this weekend. They just allowed Melvin Gordon to rush for over 4 yards per carry as well as catch 9 passes for 102 yards. Austin Ekeler added over 7 yards per carry and 5 catches for 87 yards. There’s good reason to believe Conner can shred this KC defense the same way L.A.’s backfield just did, making him a must start in week 2.
Chris Thompson (vs. Indianapolis)
Who here likes watching their RB muster up 13 yards per carry as well as 6 catches for 63 yards and a TD in his first game back after a brutal leg injury? Boy, do I have the guy for you. Chris Thompson looked dominant against Arizona, pacing the Redskins offense in both targets (7) and catches (6) on his way to 128 total yards of offense. The Colts were gashed by Mixon in week 1, so the Redskins run-heavy offense should show up again, with Peterson getting the bulk of the carries and Thompson making big plays both in the run game and the passing game.
Dion Lewis (vs. Houston)
If you told me a few weeks ago that Dion Lewis would get more carries in week 1 than Derrick Henry, I wouldn’t have believed you…but here we are. Lewis carried the ball 16 times for 75 yards and a TD, while Henry only had 10 carries for 26 yards. Lewis also added 5 catches for 35 yards to his stat line, and Henry caught only 1 pass for 5 yards. He was on the field for 14 3rd downs while Henry was on for 0. Lewis poses as good of a redzone receiving threat as Henry does a redzone rushing threat, and it’s clear that the Titans liked what he gave them in week 1. The Houston defense just gave up 30 fantasy points to the RB combo of White, Burkhead, Develin and Hill. There should be plenty of points available for Lewis to snatch up on Sunday.
Stay Away:
Devonta Freeman (vs. Carolina)
There are a few reasons Devonta Freeman made my stay away list this week. The first being that he is currently on the injury report after suffering a knee injury in week 1 against Philly. We’ll keep an eye on that and go into more detail in the fantasy injury report we’ll release on Saturday. The second reason is the matchup. Carolina has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in an NFL best 21 straight games. Going back over that stretch, they saw Freeman twice last year, Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, and Kareem Hunt, to name a few of the elite backs they shushed. Now, add Zeke Elliott’s 69-yard performance in week 1 to the list. The Panthers have a great run defense, and as long as Sarkisian is calling the plays for Atlanta, I don’t expect a big game from Freeman.
Marshawn Lynch (@ Denver)
Lynch showed a flash of Beast Mode on Monday night when he pretty much carried the whole Rams defense into the endzone on his back, with a little push from his linemen of course. Outside of that 10-yard TD run, Lynch had 10 carries for 31 yards and added 2 catches for only 8 yards in the passing game. Lynch is looking like a very TD dependent fantasy player, and against a Denver defense that allowed only 59 rushing yards and 0 TD’s from RB’s last week, Lynch should see the bench on your fantasy team this week.
The SF Backfield (vs. Detroit)
When McKinnon went down with an injury, the question was which backup would have more fantasy relevance: Alfred Morris or Matt Breida? Well, I don’t think anybody would have guessed that Kyle Juszczyk would lead the SF backfield in fantasy points in week 1. Breida carried the ball 11 times for 46 yards and Morris carried the ball 12 times for 38 yards. Not only were they unproductive and unable to find the endzone, but their timeshare will give fantasy owners headaches. Until one of them emerges as the clear #1, they will each cede too much time to the other to add RB2 or flex play value, and should be kept out of your lineups.
Wide Receivers
Play:
Randall Cobb (vs. Minnesota)
On August 10th, I wrote in my PPR Value Picks – Wide Receivers article that Cobb could find himself as a top 6 or 7 fantasy WR this year, and I like what I saw against the Bears. He was WR5 in week 1 catching 9 passes for 142 yards and 1 TD. He received 10 targets, the most on the team, and 2 more than Davante Adams. While Minnesota’s defense will most likely focus heavily on Davante Adams and Jimmy Graham, Cobb should find plenty of space over the middle of the field. His ability to find open space over the middle make him valuable even if the Packers are forced to start Deshone Kizer this weekend, and makes him a must-start if Rodgers is good to go.
Quincy Enunwa (vs. Miami)
I think we all forgot about Enunwa a bit this year, forced to miss nearly all of last season with a neck injury. He was targeted on 43% of his routes against Detroit, and has clearly emerged as the rookie Darnold’s security blanket, getting 10 targets and reeling in 6 of them for 63 yards and a TD where he showed solid run-after-catch ability. Robby Anderson caught only 1 pass but made the most of it for a 41-yard TD. His fantasy production could potentially be very TD dependent going forward. Terrelle Pryor looked decent, adding 3 catches for 49 yards. But, of these 3 WR’s, Enunwa has the highest floor and is worth a start in week 2 against Miami.
Golden Tate (@ San Francisco)
Golden Tate is the picture of slot production. He has 90+ catches each of the last 4 years and 1,000 yards each of the last 2. He already caught 7 passes in week 1 on his way to 79 yards and 1 TD. Keep in mind, that stat line was with Matthew Stafford looking like a much worse QB than we know he truly is. Tate got 15 targets while Golladay got 12 and Marvin Jones got 8. He’s clearly still Stafford’s favorite target and faces a middle of the road 49ers defense this week, making him worth of a WR2 or Flex play.
Stay Away:
Phillip Dorsett (@ Jacksonville)
Dorsett surprised a lot of us in week 1, but I don’t think we should get used to it. Despite that, my real reason for keeping him on the bench this week is the matchup. The Jaguars defense held the Giants receivers, outside of Odell Beckham, to 5 catches for 48 yards. Dorsett is obviously not Odell, and with the speed, ball skills, and overall talent level present in Jacksonville’s defense, I would steer clear of Dorsett this week. I do believe he has fantasy value going forward, so I’d advise against dropping him. A stash on the bench should do just fine.
Ted Ginn Jr. (vs. Cleveland)
Ginn’s production on Sunday was largely a result of the surprising shootout nature of the Saints vs. Bucs game. Ginn is also currently on the injury report, being a limited participant in the Thursday practice. Expect the Saints former top-10 defense to come out stronger in week 2 and control the game flow far more than they did in week 1. A slower game will result in Drew Brees throwing fewer than 45 passes and looking Ginn’s way a whole lot less.
Willie Snead (@ Cincinnati)
So much happened in the Ravens vs. Bills game on Sunday. During this absolute rout of the former AFC Wild Card team, Snead caught 4 passes on 6 targets for 49 yards and 1 TD. He faces Cincinnati on Thursday night in week 2, and the Bengals have given up the 6th fewest receptions to WR’s since the start of the 2017 season. Snead was once a solid fantasy option in New Orleans but isn’t worth a starting spot until he proves he can return to that same level of consistency and, without Drew Brees tossing passes his way, that’ll be very hard to do.
Tight Ends
Play:
Jared Cook (@ Denver)
All I have to say about Jared Cook is wow. 9 catches for 180 yards against an elite defense in a prime time game. Now, in week 2, he gets to face the Denver defense who just allowed Will Dissly to shred them for 3 catches, 103 yards, and 1 TD. He was targeted 12 times while no Raiders WR had more than 3 catches or 23 yards. He’s clearly Carr’s top target and the workload at a shallow fantasy position makes him a must-start in week 2.
George Kittle (vs. Detroit)
Kittle is living up to the pre-fantasy draft hype so far. He caught 5 of his 9 targets for 90 yards against an elite Minnesota defense in week 1. He was clearly Jimmy Garoppolo’s favorite target in the offense. Dante Pettis, Trent Taylor, and Pierre Garçon combined for a mere 8 catches for 110 yards while Breida and Morris combined for a single catch for 5 yards. In an offense without a lot of weapons, facing the defense that Sam Darnold just torched on Monday night, Kittle is a TE1.
Kyle Rudolph (@ Green Bay)
Some of you who drafted Rudolph might’ve been disappointed that he only saw 1 target in week 1, and you have every right to be. But don’t let it discourage you. Rudolph is still the only TE with 5+ TD’s each of the last 3 years, as well as 3+ catches each of the last 3 years, and Kirk Cousins still has the most completed passes to TE’s since 2015. They’ll figure it out and Rudolph will get more involved in this offense. He should definitely be started in week 2.
Stay Away:
Antonio Gates (@ Buffalo)
Boy I bet Philip Rivers misses Hunter Henry. He and Gates connected only 2 times on 3 targets against Kansas City in week 1, while Rivers also connected with backup TE Virgil Green 2 times on 2 targets. Gates is still the TE1 in LA, as he was on the field for 40% of the team’s snaps last Sunday, including getting more play time than Green late in the game when run blocking wasn’t as important. Gates’ fantasy production is still heavily TD dependent until he proves otherwise, and he shouldn’t be started in week 2 even against a weak Buffalo defense.
Benjamin Watson (vs. Cleveland)
Watson caught 4 passes for 44 yards in a losing effort last Sunday. Similar to Ginn, Watson should see his production go down in week 2 in what will almost certainly be less of a shootout than the week 1 game against Tampa Bay. The good news is, Watson saw 27 more snaps than backup TE Josh Hill, who added a single 15-yard catch. At the ripe old age of 37, Watson has to prove he can still produce alongside the likes of superstars Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. Until he does, he’s not worth a spot in your starting lineup.
Austin Hooper (vs. Carolina)
Is Hooper’s lack of production the past 2 years a product of Steve Sarkisian’s offense? Possibly. But either way, the key there for fantasy is his lack of production. Hooper caught only 3 passes on 4 targets for 24 yards against Philly in week 1. Despite his target and catch numbers both being 3rd on the Falcons in that game, it’s clear that Hooper just isn’t the TE a lot of people hoped he would be at the start of the 2017 season. Another TD dependent TE, Hooper shouldn’t be in your lineup going into a matchup against a stout Carolina defense that allowed only 3 catches for 18 yards to TE’s last week.