Play/Stay Away: Week 3
What’s the biggest shock of the 2018 fantasy season so far? Ryan Fitzpatrick being the #1 QB through 2 weeks? Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady both being outside the top-10? Chris Thompson and Austin Ekeler both top-10 RB’s? David Johnson barely in the top-30? DeSean Jackson a top-5 WR? Antonio Brown barely averaging double digits a week? Safe to say that the first 2 weeks of the season have been full of surprises. This unpredictability can make setting your lineup a little more challenging when you have those players on the bubble, and the Fantasy Football Live week 3 Play/Stay Away article is here to help!
Quarterbacks
Play:
Patrick Mahomes (vs. San Francisco)
No QB has ever thrown 10 TD’s in the first two weeks of the season, until Mahomes in 2018. In week 2 against Pittsburgh, Mahomes threw 6 TD’s and only 5 incomplete passes. He’s currently at the helm of what could potentially go down as one of the best offenses in league history, and Kansas City’s lackluster defense is going to continue to force him to air it out. With weapons around him like Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Sammy Watkins, don’t expect Mahomes to slow down any time soon.
Kirk Cousins (vs. Buffalo)
Cousins got his first real chance to prove he’s worth his contract against Green Bay on Sunday, and he absolutely delivered. He threw for 425 yards and 4 TD’s and now gets to face the Bills in Minnesota this week. The Bills defense has allowed an average of 23 points to QB’s so far this season, the 8th most in the league. As long as Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Kyle Rudolph are healthy, there’s no reason not to start Captain Kirk this season.
Matthew Stafford (vs. New England)
Stafford was horribly disappointing in week 1, but bounced back with a strong week 2 in which he threw for 347 yards and 3 TD’s and a QB8 finish in fantasy. The Lions have emerged as one of the more well-rounded passing attacks in the league with Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, Kenny Golladay, and Theo Riddick. Detroit gets the Patriots at home this week, a defense that was just shredded by Blake Bortles despite Jacksonville being without their starting RB. Look for Stafford to have another big week spreading the ball around in week 3.
Stay Away:
Alex Smith (vs. Green Bay)
Despite a QB3 fantasy finish in 2017, Smith’s start to the 2018 season has been disappointing. He’s yet to throw for over 300 yards and in week 2, failed to throw a TD pass. Washington’s run game could hardly move, gaining only 22 yards on 16 carries, and Smith was forced to dump the ball down a lot against what is an average-at-best Indianapolis secondary. He faces the Packers this week who held Trubisky in check while letting Cousins run wild, but I believe Smith is closer to Trubisky. Let him ride the bench in week 3 until they can get either their passing game really off and running.
Andrew Luck (@ Philadelphia)
NFL fans from all around were excited to see Luck come back this season, but he isn’t quite back to who he used to be. He currently has the lowest average depth of target in the league and has already thrown 3 interceptions and only 4 TD’s. In week 2 against Washington, he failed to eclipse 200 passing yards. It’s great to see him healthy again but until he starts to drift towards the QB he was in 2016, I don’t see him as a must-start in fantasy, especially against a Philly defense with a strong pass rush.
Philip Rivers (@ L.A. Rams)
Rivers was nearly perfect in week 2, completing 23 of 27 passes for 256 yards and 3 TD’s. He’s currently the 4th highest scoring fantasy QB, which made it very challenging to put him on this list. But, in an LA vs LA matchup with the Rams, I expect his numbers to take a huge hit. The 2 starting CB’s for the Rams, Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib, have allowed 37 receiving yards COMBINED so far. Where they’ve been vulnerable has been the middle of the field, where they allowed Oakland’s TE’s to go for 11 catches and 200 yards. But with 38-year-old Antonio Gates trying to work that spot, I don’t love his chances for success. The last time Rivers played against Peters, Peters picked him off twice. Peters and Talib both come from other AFC West teams, so there’s familiarity there. As much as I like Rivers and the Chargers offense, I don’t trust them against the Rams defense.
Running Backs
Play:
Tevin Coleman (vs. New Orleans)
Coleman snapped the Panthers’ streak of 21 games without allowing a 100-yard rusher last week, rushing for 107 yards on 16 carries. He averaged 6.7 yards per carry as well as tied for 4th on the team in targets. Sarkisian and Matt Ryan clearly are looking for various ways to get him involved in the offense and will continue to do so going forward. With Devonta Freeman ruled out again this week, Coleman has low-end RB1/high-end RB2 value in a divisional matchup with New Orleans, who have yet to really be challenged by a solid RB this season.
Melvin Gordon (@ L.A. Rams)
Gordon currently has 24 carries for 92 yards and 1 TD, a below-average 3.83 yards per carry. But holy cow can he find other ways to produce. He already has 15 catches on 20 targets for 140 yards and 2 TD’s. He has the 32nd most receiving yards in the league, ahead of Rob Gronkowski, T.Y. Hilton, and Travis Kelce as well as many others. In what will most likely be a high scoring game against the Rams, with Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters blanketing receivers on the outside, look for Gordon to get a lot of work in the flat as well as over the middle coming out of the backfield.
Chris Thompson (vs. Green Bay)
Speaking of RB’s who rank highly in receiving yards, let’s talk about Chris Thompson of the Washington Redskins, who’s making the Play list for the 2nd week in a row. Nearly all of Thompson’s value in fantasy comes as a pass-catcher, and he has caught 19 of his 20 targets for 155 receiving yards and 1 TD over the first 2 games, coming up right behind Antonio Brown in total receiving yards. The Packers put up a lot of points, so expect the Redskins to play catchup and for Alex Smith’s favorite target to remain heavily involved.
Stay Away:
Adrian Peterson (vs. Green Bay)
Despite the success of their run game in week 1, both of Washington’s RB’s are not worth a starting spot in fantasy. Peterson was horribly ineffective in week 2, rushing 11 times for an abysmal 20 yards. The Redskins were killing clock in week 1 against Arizona, which allowed Peterson to get the majority of the work. But when they were trying to play catchup in week 2, Thompson hardly left the field. Expect to see similar against the Packers high-powered offense in week 2.
Alex Collins (vs. Denver)
One of the more disappointing starts to the 2018 season, Collins has carried the ball only 16 times for 51 yards and 1 TD and has only added 4 catches for 61 yards as a pass catcher. The volume just simply isn’t there for Collins, and he’s having his goal line work and the majority of the pass catching work consistently vultured by Buck Allen. They each have exactly 20 touches so far, and neither is worth a starting spot in your fantasy lineup until he distances himself from the other.
Matt Breida (@ Kansas City)
Breida had a huge game in week 2, but 13 of his 21 points came on a single 68-yard TD run, which is unlikely to be a recurring event. He is still trailing Alfred Morris in carries, 26 to 22, and only has 2 more catches but for 6 fewer yards. Neither of these backs have separated themselves as the clear #1 back, and in a game against the electric Kansas City offense where they’ll likely be trying to come from behind all 2nd half, expect Jimmy G to air it out this week.
Wide Receivers
Play:
Davante Adams (@ Washington)
Adams had another big week, going over 60 yards and finding the endzone for the 2nd straight game. Adams leads the league in receiving TD’s since the start of the 2016 season and his scoring once a game makes it look like that’ll continue on. Adams caught 8 of 12 passes thrown his way in week 2 and showed that he’s matchup proof while playing through a shoulder injury and lining up opposite Xavier Rhodes for much of the game. Adams will more than likely be shadowed by Josh Norman in week 3’s road game against the Redskins, but as long as he has Aaron Rodgers throwing his way, the matchup doesn’t matter. Start Adams this week.
Will Fuller (vs. NYG)
Deshaun Watson and Will Fuller have a connection that not a lot of QB-WR combos are able to find. In his 2018 debut, he caught 8 passes on 9 targets for 113 yards and 1 TD and was on the field for 82% of Houston’s offensive snaps. The Giants defense has yet to be tested against a passing offense of this caliber. He’s proven since the start of 2017 to be one of the league’s best deep threats, and his 8 catches against Tennessee last week are 3 more than his most in one game last year. He’s a must-start going forward this year.
Golden Tate (vs. New England)
Still one of the most consistent WR’s a QB could ask for, Golden Tate is tied for 3rd among WR’s with 28 targets so far in 2018. Despite Stafford’s issues with accuracy through the first two weeks, Tate’s volume in this pass-heavy offense gives him plenty of opportunity to make plays. He has 7 catches in each game, with 79 yards in week 1 and 109 in week 2. A week 3 matchup against New England will likely result in another 45+ pass attempt game from Stafford, bringing a lot of targets Tate’s way once again. Start him this week.
Stay Away:
Randall Cobb (@ Washington)
Cobb’s massive week 1 (9 catches, 142 yards, 1 TD) led to him being moved into a lot of starting lineups week 2, and in turn led to a lot of disappointment among fantasy owners. In week 2, he caught only 4 passes for 30 yards. He’s played in at least 87% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps so far, but Jimmy Graham dominated the middle of the field last Sunday and if that continues, Cobb’s fantasy relevance will continue dropping as Adams and Allison handle the majority of the work on the outside.
Sammy Watkins (vs. San Francisco)
Watkins had a big week 2, catching 6 passes for 100 receiving yards, his most since week 3 of last year. However, in his next 3 starts after that, he went for 17 yards, 0 yards, and 11 yards. Watkins was electric in his first 2 years in Buffalo, but hasn’t been able to replicate that production since then. Seven Kansas City Chiefs have found the endzone so far this year, and Watkins is not one of them. He has to prove consistent production before he’s worth starting in fantasy.
Keenan Allen (@ L.A. Rams)
Allen has been an elite receiver, when healthy, since his rookie campaign. There are very few matchups that would make me consider benching him. That being said, revisiting what I mentioned earlier about Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon, I don’t like the Chargers WR’s this week. Whichever side of the field Allen lines up on, he’ll be covered by either Marcus Peters (2x Pro Bowler and 2x All Pro) or Aqib Talib (5x Pro Bowler and 2x All Pro). The two of them have COMBINED to allow 37 receiving yards this year, so I think the bulk of the Chargers receiving work in this LA vs. LA matchup will go to Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler. If you have the depth, consider moving Keenan Allen to the bench this week.
Tight Ends
Play:
Kyle Rudolph (vs. Buffalo)
Rudolph’s week 2 performance was far more indicative of what we can expect from him going forward. He caught 7 passes on 8 targets for 72 yards and proved that he can still produce even when both Thielen and Diggs put up massive numbers in the passing game. Kirk Cousins still loves to find the TE and Rudolph has high-end TE1 upside facing a vulnerable Bills defense at home in week 3.
O.J. Howard (vs. Pittsburgh)
What originally looked like a timeshare between Howard and Cameron Brate has been all Howard through the first 2 weeks of the season. Brate has run only 20 routes and has yet to even be targeted. Howard, on the other hand, has caught 5 passes for 150 yards and 1 TD. The Tampa Bay offense loves to air it out with Fitzmagic at the helm and he clearly likes Howard as a target. His size and speed make him a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses, and the Pittsburgh defense has allowed the 5th most points to TE’s so far this season. Howard is a must-start.
Will Dissly (vs. Dallas)
Dissly is currently 4th among TE’s in receiving yards and is 1 of 3 TE’s with 2 TD’s. He has emerged as a trusted target for Russell Wilson in a relatively weaponless offense without a run game. Look for Dissly to stay involved in week 3 against a Dallas defense that has allowed an average of 8 points per games to TE’s this year, the 9th most in the league.
Stay Away:
Jack Doyle (@ Philadelphia)
Doyle ran more routes, played more snaps, and received more targets than Eric Ebron in week 2, but caught only 2 passes for 20 yards. Ebron, on only 3 targets, caught 3 passes for 26 yards and a TD, his second score in as many weeks. Doyle has more catches and receiving yards so far this season but his 8 total fantasy points through 2 weeks is disappointing when Ebron has 19. Ebron is clearly the favored target near the goal line and provides too much value to the Colts’ offense to make Doyle a TE1 in a road game against the Eagles.
David Njoku (vs. NYJ)
The former first-round pick is off to a slightly disappointing start to 2018, totaling only 7 catches for 33 yards through the first 2 weeks. The opportunity is there, as Njoku is second on the team in routes run, but he just isn’t getting the looks necessary to produce at a fantasy starter level. The Browns face the Jets on Thursday night in week 3, and the Jets have allowed the 4th fewest points to TE’s through the first 2 weeks this year. Njoku has to get some more looks and make some plays before he’s worth starting.
Austin Hooper (vs. New Orleans)
Hooper made my Stay Away list last week and I mentioned that he wasn’t the TE he was expected to be at the start of the 2017 season. He showed me up on Sunday by catching 5 passes for 59 yards and 1 TD. These 11 standard fantasy points are the most Hooper has had in a game since week 1 of 2017. But, his target volume is inconsistent and the Falcons have really struggled in the redzone over the past 2 years despite what we saw last week. I’m not ready to jump back on the Hooper hype train just yet.