Buy Low/Sell High: Week 4
What’s going on with David Johnson? Is Adrian Peterson a RB1? What will I do now that Jimmy G is out for the year? Is Tom Brady finally done? These are just a few of the plethora of questions us fantasy football owners are trying to figure out. With these questions come decisions we need to make in regard to trading for or trading away players. Trading for players underperforming their expectations, or trading away players at their peak can save fantasy owners from an embarrassing last place finish, or help build a championship roster. Here are some players you should either buy low or sell high on this week in order to get great value for the rest of the season.
BUY LOW:
QB: Tom Brady
FPPG: 15.1
Rank: 21st
Last Week: 7.5 pts
Despite his years of success as a fantasy quarterback, many people are trying to get rid of Tom Brady thanks to his less-than-spectacular first 3 weeks of the season. His 7.5 points last week against the Lions were his lowest since week 15 of the 2016 season, so there likely won’t be a better time to buy Brady than right now. Currently it looks like Brady and the Patriots are doomed thanks to back-to-back, double digit losses against the Jaguars and winless Lions (now 1-2), but it’s important not to overreact. The Jaguars D is the best in the league and a tough matchup for any QB, and Brady still managed a decent performance (16.4 pts), while the Lions are now coached by Matt Patricia who knows Brady’s strengths and weaknesses best thanks to going up against him everyday in practice as Defensive Coordinator for the Patriots over the last 6 years. His poor production so far can also be attributed to the lack of talent at the WR position, but once Edelman comes back from suspension (week 5) and Josh Gordon gets incorporated into the offense, Brady will have a good combination of talented and experienced receiving options through the rest of the season. Brady will still finish 2018 as a QB1, and should be preferred over any QB not named Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, or Cam Newton.
RB: David Johnson
FPPG: 10
Rank: 19th
Last Week: 12.1 pts
I know most people wouldn’t touch David Johnson with a 10 foot pole right now, but it’s that exact reason why you should buy him. Current David Johnson owners are likely willing to ship him off at a cheap price thanks to their disappointment in using a high first round pick on him. His start to the 2018 fantasy season has made it easy to forget just how dynamic of a player Johnson is. He can catch just as easily as he can run, and while he may not have the upside of a top 5 RB anymore, he should still be considered a low end RB1 or high end RB2. The main thing holding Johnson back right now is incompetent coaching that is not using him in the passing game (10 catches through 3 games) or the running game (34 carries through 3 games) as much as the Cardinals should be. Sitting at the bottom of the NFC West at 0-3, the Cardinals should realize that they need to use David Johnson more if they want to be competitive this season, and the decision to roll with Josh Rosen for week 4 will likely mean that they rely on Johnson more so they can keep the pressure off the apparent future of the franchise. Trading away any mid to low end RB2 type player like Alex Collins, Kenyan Drake, Jay Ajayi, or Marshawn Lynch for David Johnson would be a savvy move that nervous Johnson owners just might be willing to accept.
WR: Keenan Allen
FPPG: 8.6
Rank: 38th
Last Week: 2.4 pts
Keenan Allen has likely been the ire of those who own him as of late, scoring less than 10 points over the last two games combined. Allen is ranked as the 38th WR through 3 weeks, lower than players like Albert Wilson, Quincy Enunwa and Geronimo Allison. Despite this slow start, Allen should still be considered a top option at WR, for it isn’t unknown to Allen to start a season with poor fantasy numbers. In fact, Allen actually has more points this year (25.9) than he did last year (25.6) through 3 weeks, and he still finished as the 3rd best WR. Allen should still be considered a borderline top 5 WR, which is why he should be bought after what will probably be his worst performance of the season. Going up against a weak defense in San Francisco next week, Allen should have solid fantasy production, so this might very well be the last time to pick up Allen for cheap. Getting Allen this week for receivers like Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, Juju Smith-Schuster, or Brandin Cooks could prove to be the move that wins you a championship.
SELL HIGH:
QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick
FPPG: 32.5
Rank: 1st
Last Week: 25.1 pts
Even though Fitzpatrick just turned in his worst performance of the season, he still managed a solid 25.1 points. While this may encourage Fitzpatrick owners to keep him, it would be smart to sell him before he turns in a dud, because let’s face it: it’s Ryan Fitzpatrick. Sure the “Fitzmagic” going on right now is exciting to watch, but there’s a reason why Fitzpatrick has been on 8 different teams since entering the NFL. He’ll turn 36 during this season, and once he turns in a bad performance, there is no doubt that Bucs’ coaching staff and ownership will put in Winston. The Bucs hope that Winston is their franchise quarterback, and the organization will want to put Winston in this season as they will need to decide whether to give him a $100+ million contract once he is a free agent after the 2019 season. Leaving Fitzpatrick in for the whole season is a short-sighted move that could stunt Winston’s growth and the progress he made during the 2017 season, and the Bucs won’t want to risk that with the former #1 overall pick. The smart move would be to sell “Fitzmagic” before the magic runs out, which could be as early as next week against a stout bears defense. Trading Fitzpatrick for any low end QB1 or high end QB2 would be a steal.
RB: Adrian Peterson
FPPG: 16.5
Rank: 5th
Last Week: 24 pts
I think I can speak for everyone in saying that as a football fan I want to see Adrian Peterson have a great season. He is unquestionably the greatest RB of this era, but his efficiency from last season and the beginning of this season is hard to ignore. Last year he averaged just 3.4 yards per carry (YPC), and his YPC this year of 4.2 is wildly boosted by his most recent game against the Packers where he put up 120 rushing yards on 19 carries (6.32 YPC). In the other two games this season combined, Peterson is averaging just 3.14 YPC, making last week’s performance look more like an outlier. What’s more concerning though is the strength of schedule Peterson is up against over the remainder of the season. He already had the benefit of going up against a terrible Cardinals rushing defense and a weak Colts run D, but FantasyPros has Peterson’s remaining schedule as the 3rd hardest for fantasy RBs. Coming up on Peterson’s schedule are multiple games against the Eagles, Cowboys, and Giants, all of who have been great against the run, and good teams like the Saints, Panthers, and Falcons who have the ability to dominate a weak Redskins team. Positive game script is crucial for a RB like Peterson, as he will be replaced by Chris Thompson in games that they are losing. In both wins for the Redskins so far, Peterson has played in over 50% of the Redskins snaps, but against the Colts, a game in which they played from behind most of the time, Peterson only played in 34% of the offensive plays. Along with the likelihood that the Redskins don’t finish above .500, it’s likely that Peterson disappoints more than he fulfills what are now lofty expectations. Trading Peterson for a RB2 caliber player would be a smart decision considering his inefficiency and remaining strength of schedule.
WR: Tyler Lockett
FPPG: 12.7
Rank: 12th
Last Week: 14.2 pts
Tyler Lockett has been a nice surprise for fantasy owners that started him so far this season, averaging 12.7 points per game and never scoring under 11.9 points. This consistency can be attributed to the fact that Lockett has caught a touchdown in each of his games so far. At this rate, Lockett is on pace to score 16 touchdowns this season, an accomplishment that no one believes will happen for a second. Because it won’t, especially with Doug Baldwin returning from injury in the next week or two. Once Baldwin returns, Lockett will be demoted to the second option in Seattle’s passing offense. While Russell Wilson is a good quarterback, it is unlikely that his current rate of 239 passing yards per game (19th in the NFL) can support more than 1 fantasy relevant option in the passing game. Selling Lockett now, before Baldwin comes back, is an obvious move considering he won’t be startable in a few weeks. Using Lockett and targeting players in the WR3 range that are projected to get plenty of targets, such as Nelson Agholor, Golden Tate, Devin Funchess, or Keelan Cole, is a transaction that you can probably pull off and one that should benefit your team for the rest of the season.