Play/Stay Away: Week 4
I hope you all have been enjoying this article so far this year, as I’ve loved writing it. But I want to make one thing clear. I can’t predict the future. Just because someone is on the Stay Away list, doesn’t mean they’re going to have a bad week. It’s my job to sift through the data, find the relevant statistics, and play the odds. With that being said, here is the Play/Stay Away for week 4 of the 2018 season. May the odds be ever in your favor…
*TNF players have been removed*
Quarterbacks
Play:
Ben Roethlisberger (vs. Baltimore)
I think at this point, everyone is aware of Ben’s home vs. road splits as far as fantasy production goes. In the Steelers only home game so far this year, Ben threw for 452 yards and 3 TD’s, and didn’t turn the ball over even once. In their home game against Baltimore last year, Ben threw for 506 yards and 2 TD’s. The Ravens allowed their other division rival’s QB, Andy Dalton, to throw for 265 yards and 4 TD’s. Assuming his weapons are healthy, Big Ben is a must-start in week 4 against a division rival.
Deshaun Watson (@ Indianapolis)
Watson got off to a very slow start in week 1 against New England, but has picked it up, posting a 22-point and a 24-point fantasy performance in the last 2 weeks. The return of Will Fuller certainly helps. He’s thrown for over 300+ yards in back-to-back games and has thrown for 2 TD’s in each of those games as well. The Colts rank 24th in pressuring opposing QB’s, which should give Watson plenty of time to find either Hopkins or Fuller, or even take off and run (he’s averaging 40 rushing yards per game so far this year). He’s QB11 in standard leagues through 3 weeks, and Watson’s playmaking ability as well as solid weapons at WR make him a must-start.
Eli Manning (vs. New Orleans)
The NFL world got a glimpse in week 3 of what Eli Manning can still do when his offensive line gives him time. In week 4, he’ll face the Saints, who’ve allowed the 2nd most passing yards per game so far this year. They’re allowing an average of 31 PPG to fantasy QB’s and have only registered 5 sacks. Eli Manning has solid receiving options in Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard, and Saquon Barkley. You can likely get him for next to nothing, as he’s available in roughly 89% of leagues. Manning hasn’t had a ton of fantasy success these last few years, but an improved offensive line, solid skill players, and a Saints defense that has already surrendered 10 passing TD’s could be a recipe for a top-10 QB finish.
Stay Away:
Andrew Luck (vs. Houston)
Aside from fans of other AFC South teams, it seems like the whole NFL world is rooting for Andrew Luck to return to the QB he once was. Unfortunately, he has yet to do so. Luck is currently averaging 14 fantasy PPG and is facing the Texans this week, who have allowed an average of 16 fantasy PPG to opposing QB’s. While Luck’s highest fantasy performance so far this year (18 points) was his last home game, I’d recommend making him earn your trust a little bit more before putting him in your starting lineup.
Running Backs
Play:
Carlos Hyde (@ Oakland)
What started the 2018 season looking like a crowded backfield by committee has turned into the Carlos Hyde show. Duke Johnson and Nick Chubb have combined for only 22 touches through the first 3 weeks, and Hyde has more touches than that in a single game twice already this season. He has carried the ball 61 times for 203 yards and 4 TD’s, is one of eight players to average 21 touches per game, and is 2nd in TD’s per game behind only Todd Gurley. Oakland has allowed the 6th-most yards per carry to RB’s this year, setting up Hyde with low-end RB1 potential in week 4.
James White (vs. Miami)
White has carried the ball 13 times for 66 yards and caught 14 passes for 125 yards and 2 TD’s so far this season. He’s forfeited most of the ground work to Rex Burkhead who, unfortunately, was just placed on the IR. Sony Michel will likely handle a good chunk of the backfield work, but White has been too productive for too long for the Patriots to not get him more involved. In an offense seemingly devoid of playmakers, White has high-end RB2 potential in standard scoring this week and low-end RB1 potential in PPR formats. The Dolphins have allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing RB’s, setting White up nicely for Sunday’s home game against a division rival.
Chris Carson (@ Arizona)
Carson ran the ball 32 times for 102 yards and a TD in a week 3 win over the Dallas Cowboys. This fantasy performance was largely a product of the Seahawks having a lead the majority of the game, something that hasn’t been very common for them lately, which resulted in them running the ball more than usual. Expect more of the same in week 4 when they travel to Arizona to play the Cardinals, who have been atrocious this season. They’re currently the worst defense against RB’s in terms of fantasy production, allowing RB’s to score an average of 31 PPG against them. Expect Carson to get another heavy workload in week 4.
Stay Away:
Isaiah Crowell (@ Jacksonville)
Crowell has had a surprisingly strong start to the 2018 fantasy season, currently ranking 8th among all RB’s. While he has registered 41 fantasy points, 24 of those come from TD’s. In week 2, he ran the ball 12 times for 35 yards and caught 2 passes for 4 yards – a 3-point performance. In week 3, he ran the ball 16 times for 34 yards and caught 2 passes for 17 yards – a 16-point performance. As you can see, he flirts with a rare line between fantasy starter and fantasy free agent. He’s about as TD dependent over the last 2 weeks as they come at the RB position. This week, the Jets go to Jacksonville and face the league’s #8 defense against fantasy RB’s. Let Crowell ride the bench this week, as he’s likely to put up a stat line closer to week 2 than to weeks 1 or 3.
James Conner (vs. Baltimore)
After a stellar week 1 performance against the Browns, Conner looked like the best waiver pickup/late round draft steal one could imagine. He had people questioning whether or not the Steelers even needed Le’Veon Bell. However, the Steelers defense has been so bad that they’ve forced Big Ben to throw the ball an average of 46 times per game so far this year. Conner carried the ball 31 times in week 1, and has only carried the ball 23 times over the last two weeks. He has caught 5 passes in each game but hasn’t produced the yardage in the pass game that Bell was always able to. Until the Steelers start going more run heavy like they did in week 1, Conner is, at best, a flex play.
Alex Collins (@ Pittsburgh)
Expected at the beginning of the year to be the bellcow back in Baltimore after a strong second half of the 2017 season, Alex Collins has actually registered fewer fantasy points through the first two weeks than his backup Javorius Allen. Collins has 34 carries for 116 yards and 2 TD’s as well as 7 catches for 67 yards. Allen has 16 carries for 32 yards and 3 TD’s as well as 13 catches for 70 yards. While Collins has clearly been the more productive of the two when it comes to moving the chains, it’s Allen’s team-high 2 redzone touches per game over the past 2 weeks that really lower Collins’ fantasy ceiling. Things seem to be trending in the right direction for Collins, as he registered 18 of his 34 carries in week 3 against Denver, but he still needs to distance himself a bit from Allen before becoming a reliable fantasy starter.
Wide Receivers
Play:
Sterling Shepard (vs. New Orleans)
In week 3 against Houston, Shepard set season highs for catches (6), yards (80), and TD’s (1). It was his second 7-target game this season, and now in week 4 he’ll face the Saints, who’ve allowed more fantasy points to WR’s than any other team so far this year. With Evan Engram being out, Shepard could take command of the middle of the field, and if the offensive line can give Eli time to throw like they did last week, he’ll likely wind up looking Shepard’s way a lot. Shepard has WR2/high-end Flex potential this week in a home game against, what is right now, the league’s worst passing defense.
Tyler Lockett (@ Arizona)
When you think of the expression “next man up”, Lockett is a great example. In Baldwin’s absence, he’s taken over the WR1 role in Seattle, and has been very productive. He has caught 12 passes for 196 yards and 3 TD’s, one in each game. He leads the team in routes run, receptions, receiving yards, and TD’s. In week 4, the Seahawks face an awful Arizona defense which should give Lockett plenty of opportunities to find space and, at the rate he’s been playing, expect Russell Wilson to look his way a lot. Like Shepard, Lockett was WR2/high-end Flex potential in week 4.
Tyler Boyd (@ Atlanta)
Over the last 2 weeks, Tyler Boyd has enjoyed a 3rd season breakout party, catching 12 passes for 223 yards and 2 TD’s. He clearly has earned the trust of Andy Dalton and the coaching staff, as he’s #1 on the Bengals in both receiving yards and routes run. A.J. Green left the week 3 matchup with a groin injury, but even if he plays, Boyd still has WR2 potential in week 4 against a beat up Falcons defense that has allowed 13th most fantasy points to opposing WR’s, including an average of 34.5 over the past 2 weeks.
Stay Away:
DeSean Jackson (@ Chicago)
After Jackson’s huge week 1 against the Saints, people were hesitant to start him, having experienced years of his boom or bust tendencies. After a consecutive big week 2 performance, people got a little more confident, and he was added to even more starting lineups. Then, in week 3, that decision bit a whole lot of people. Jackson is still the boom or bust guy that he has always been. In week 4, the Bucs have a tough matchup with the Bears, who have allowed an average of 14 fantasy PPG to WR’s over the last two weeks. Granted, those teams were the Seahawks and Cardinals who don’t have a ton of WR talent, but still impressive numbers from the Bears defense. Their powerful pass rush will likely limit the number of times Fitzpatrick can wait for Jackson to beat his man 40 yards downfield, pushing more towards the bust side of his potential.
Mike Williams (vs. San Francisco)
Williams had a huge game in week 3 against a solid Rams defense, picking up the slack left behind by Keenan Allen. While Williams is averaging 12 fantasy PPG in standard leagues, he is another player who is fairly TD dependent, averaging just 6 fantasy PPG without them. His size and trust from Philip Rivers do make him a threat to find the endzone every game, but starting TD dependent players in fantasy is always a risky move. For that reason, Williams is on the Stay Away list in what will likely be an easy win for the Chargers over the C.J. Beathard-led 49ers, leading to a lot of the second half offense coming from the run game.
Tight Ends
Play:
O.J. Howard (@ Chicago)
The Buccaneers offense has to be one of 2018’s biggest surprises, but fantasy owners of their weapons definitely don’t mind. One of their top weapons so far is second year TE O.J. Howard. After a slow rookie year due mainly to splitting time with Cameron Brate, Howard has emerged as the clear TE1 in the Fitzmagic-led offense. His targets have doubled each of the last two weeks and he has caught 11 passes for 222 yards and a TD so far this year. Going back to last season, he has at least 50 yards or a TD in each of his last 5 games. While the Bears defense is solid, they’ve allowed a TD to the TE in each of their last two games. A strong Chicago pass rush could make Fitzpatrick get rid of the ball early and could turn Howard into a security blanket.
Trey Burton (vs. Tampa Bay)
Another TE in the Bucs vs. Bears matchup, Burton has caught 4 passes in each of the last 2 games and recorded a season high 55 receiving yards in Sunday’s game against the Cardinals. In each of the last 2 weeks, the Buccaneers have allowed over 115 receiving yards to opposing TE’s, which bodes well for Burton. This poor passing defense could give him the opportunity he need to take on a Kelce-like role in Matt Nagy’s offense.
Dallas Goedert (@ Titans)
Still available in 92% of leagues, Goedert is a sneaky TE play this week against the Titans defense but is worth looking at due to how thin the position is so far this year. He caught only 1 pass for 4 yards with Nick Foles under center, but caught 7 for 73 yards and a TD in Carson Wentz’s first game back. Tennessee is currently the #1 fantasy defense against TE’s, but they’ve only faced A.J. Derby/Matt Gesicki, Jordan Thomas/Ryan Griffin, and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins/Niles Paul. Ertz and Goedert will give them their first real test this week.
Stay Away:
Jared Cook (vs. Cleveland)
Despite being the #4 TE in standard scoring leagues, Cook has regressed away from the player we saw in week 1 and toward the player we’ve seen the last few years. Through the last 2 weeks, he has combined for 9 catches (the same amount he caught in week 1 alone) and 80 yards (100 fewer than he had in week 1). The Browns have yet to concede more than 4 catches or more than 60 yards and have not yet allowed a TE to find the endzone. In standard scoring, they’ve allowed 1 point to TE’s each of the last 2 weeks. Cook should ride your fantasy bench in week 4.
Will Dissly (@ Arizona)
Another early season star, Dissly has disappointed all of those who used a waiver claim on him after week 1. In the last 2 weeks, Dissly has caught 4 passes (only 1 more than he caught in week 1 alone) for 46 yards (59 fewer than he had in week 1). As I mentioned earlier talking about Chris Carson, expect a run-heavy game script for the Seahawks this week, making Dissly a TD dependent fantasy option even against an ugly Cardinals defense.
Vance McDonald/Jesse James (vs. Baltimore)
If either of these guys were the lone TE on their team, they would both be viable fantasy starters. However, they’re obviously not. In weeks 2 and 3, Vance McDonald had 2 points and 17 points, respectively. In weeks 2 and 3, Jesse James had 19 points and 0 points, respectively. The pattern seems to be that one of them will make a big play at some point during the game, and as a result, the other will not. There’s no way to predict which of the two will have the bigger game, which in turn makes them both risky starts that you’d be better off staying away from.