Buy Low/Sell High: Week 5
What’s up with Aaron Rodgers? Is Jared Goff a must start? Is the Giants Offense too bad for OBJ? Should I drop Dion Lewis? These are just a few of the plethora of questions us fantasy football owners are trying to figure out. With these questions come decisions we need to make in regard to trading for or trading away players. Trading for players underperforming their expectations, or trading away players at their peak can save fantasy owners from an embarrassing last place finish, or help build a championship roster. Here are some players you should either buy low or sell high on this week in order to get great value for the rest of the season. FPPG = Fantasy Points Per Game.
BUY LOW:
QB: Aaron Rodgers
FPPG: 19.0
Rank: 15th
Last Week: 15 pts
Week 1’s comeback against the Bears seems like a long time ago for Aaron Rodgers. Since then he has put up just 4 touchdowns in 3 games, which may have people thinking that he is not going to finish well this year thanks to injuries at the receiver position and his own injury he is dealing with. It’s important to realize though that Rodgers’ matchups so far haven’t been ideal for fantasy purposes. He got injured against a stout Bears team in Week 1, then played a tough Vikings defense in Week 2, and played a Redskins team who were #1 against the pass going into week 3. Following those 3 performances came a matchup against the Bills whose defense is significantly improved thanks to a switch in play-calling. The Bills offense was also a non-threat in last week’s game, making it easier for the Packers to devote more snaps to the run game. Buy him now since Rodgers plays the Lions this week. With Rodgers leading the way, the Packers have put up more than 25 points in each game since November of 2015. He should still be considered a top 5 fantasy quarterback for the rest of the season.
RB: Dion Lewis
FPPG: 8
Rank: 29th
Last Week: 6.6 pts
I know it’s hard to convince yourself to trade for a running back who just put up 0 rushing yards, but it’s likely you can get a good price for Dion Lewis right now. Lewis popped off in Week 1, but since then has yet to put up more than 7 fantasy points. This dearth of fantasy points is due to an incapable offense led by Blaine Gabbert in much of weeks 2 and 3, and both of those matchups came against defenses (Texans and Jaguars) who have been pretty solid against the run so far. With Mariota back, the Titans offense got back on track, but his 0 rushing yards should be taken with a grain of salt considering the Eagles have yet to allow more than 36 rushing yards to one player this year. What should be encouraging though is the fact that he still scored 6.6 points all off receiving yards. Dion Lewis’ pass catching enables him to see more playing time than the more traditional back in Derrick Henry. Lewis has significantly out snapped Henry (>10% difference in snaps) in three of four games so far, meaning that he still has the opportunity to get fantasy points. With easier matchups on the horizon (Bills next week) and Mariota healthy, Lewis should get back on track to fulfilling his Flex level of play.
WR: Odell Beckham Jr.
FPPG: 8.5
Rank: 33rd
Last Week: 7 pts
Many expected last game’s matchup against the Saints to be the game that Beckham finally broke out, but fantasy owners were left with just 7 points. The ineffectiveness of the Giants offense may have people concerned over Beckham’s fantasy outlook, but he has yet to score a touchdown which is an outlier. He is currently on pace for 1,324 yards which is close to his career average per season (1,374 yards) but in each full season he’s played he has put up at least 10 touchdowns. In his last full season (2016) he also failed to score in the first four weeks, but managed 10 touchdowns in the last 12 games, with his first coming in week 5. Nothing has changed about OBJ, he is still one of the premier touchdown scorers in the league, but he’s just in a dry spell. Owners nervous over his production so far could be willing to take a WR2 type player like Brandin Cooks, Tyreek Hill, or Davante Adams for Odell, which could be a trade to help win your fantasy league.
SELL HIGH:
QB: Jared Goff
FPPG: 25.1
Rank: 3rd
Last Week: 39.3 pts
While I could’ve taken the easy road by selecting Mitchell Trubisky as my sell high QB, I assume that most of us know that Trubisky won’t be throwing for anywhere close to 6 TDs every game (2 passing touchdowns through the first 3 weeks). That being said, there is a lot of excitement for Jared Goff in the fantasy world, as his performance against the Vikings may be seen by some as his ascension into Elite status. I in no way doubt the talent that Goff has as a quarterback, but it seems to me that most of the time his fantasy numbers will be a victim of the team’s success. Last week’s game against the Vikings was a shootout, finishing 38-31 with an impressive statline from Goff (465 passing yards, 5 TDs), but it’s worth questioning how many such games the Rams will be in for the remainder of the season with such a talented roster. Simply put the stars were aligned for Goff to have a great game: the Rams were facing a high-powered offense led by Kirk Cousins and the Rams were missing both starting corners Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib on a short week with little time to create an effective defensive gameplan without their star corners. Goff’s next three games come against the Seahawks, Broncos, and 49ers, none of which have the offensive firepower that the Vikings have. In such games, the Rams offense will likely revert back to an offense that features Todd Gurley with the passing game as a second option. Goff should finish the season as a high end QB2, so trading him at his current position as the 3rd best quarterback in fantasy could yield some value.
RB: Carlos Hyde
FPPG: 15
Rank: 6th
Last Week: 14.2 pts
Carlos Hyde owners might be feeling good considering Hyde is currently the 6th best RB in fantasy, but don’t expect this production to hold. Two things that stand out about Hyde’s production so far are that he has 5 touchdowns through 4 games and he has yet to rush for 100 yards. This is normally not a formula for sustainable production in fantasy football (sans LeGarrette Blount’s 2016 season). At this pace, Hyde would get 20 touchdowns this season, which would top Todd Gurley’s league-high 19 touchdowns last season. I think we all know that Carlos Hyde is no Todd Gurley. More concerning though is Nick Chubb’s breakout game against the Raiders. Through the first 3 games Chubb has been a non-factor in the run game (8 carries), but it’s a certainty that the Browns give Chubb more carries after his 100 yard, 2 TD game on just 3 carries. Naturally, Chubb’s increased workload takes opportunities away from Hyde. Hyde will finish the season as a low end RB2, so an optimistic trader could try swinging him for Dalvin Cook or Joe Mixon, but even trading Hyde for Marshawn Lynch or Sony Michel would prove worth your while.
WR: Cooper Kupp
FPPG: 15
Rank: 3rd
Last Week: 28.2 pts
Currently the top 3 WRs in fantasy right now are Calvin Ridley, DeSean Jackson, and Cooper Kupp. I can guarantee you that none of those players will finish as top 3 wideouts by the end of 2018, so you can likely sell high on all of them, but for the segment I’ll go with Kupp due to a number of reasons. First, as mentioned before, the Rams shouldn’t see themselves in a lot of situations when they need to pass the ball, due to their terrific run game and defense. While this hasn’t stopped Kupp from performing so far, he didn’t get more than 75 receiving yards in either of the 3 games before last week’s 162 yard, 2 TD explosion. Kupp is also currently in a 3 headed monster including Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods, both of who have gotten more targets than Cooper Kupp up to this point. The number of talented receivers for the Rams, along with Todd Gurley out of the backfield, projects generally inconsistent production that isn’t indicative of a player who can finish as a top 10 wideout like he currently is. For the rest of the season, Kupp should put up stats worthy of a mid WR3, which could make trading him for a WR2 like Stefon Diggs or Juju Smith-Schuster a good bargain.