Play/Stay Away - Week 5
Naturally, as the author of this weekly article, I’m always curious as to what people have to say about it in the comments on Twitter. Some people disagree with me, and I’m perfectly fine with that. Like I said in last week’s intro, I can’t predict the future. Some people trust my word and will do whatever I say they should do, which is more power than I was ever truly prepared for. But one comment under last week’s post really stuck with me. It said something along the lines of, “You guys suck, you told me to bench Goff!” And it’s true. I did the make the mistake of putting Goff on the Stay Away list last week, but there’s something I want to make clear: Someone being on the Stay Away list does not automatically mean you should bench that person just like someone on the Play list does not automatically mean you should start them. I don’t know what kind of depth you have at the position or who is available in free agency in your league, so I can’t outright tell you to bench or start these players. It simply means that given the matchup, the health of them and their teammates, and their previous performances, they’re either more or less likely to have big games. My goal in this article is to take guys on the bubble of being benched or started and provide you with the information necessary to help you make an informed decision about your lineup. With that in mind, let’s dive into week 5!
Quarterbacks
Play:
Deshaun Watson (vs. Dallas)
After a rough 11-point fantasy performance in week 1, a lot of fantasy football players and NFL fans alike were wondering if Watson’s rookie season was just a fluke. He’s turned it on since then, throwing for over 300 yards and 2 TD’s in each of the last 3 games, and has also ran for over 35 yards in every game this season. He’s posted fantasy performances of 22, 24, and 31 the last 3 weeks and looks every bit as dominant as he did as a rookie. Watson is a must-start going forward.
Marcus Mariota (@ Buffalo)
Mariota threw for 344 yards in week 4’s win over the Eagles, the most in one game since his rookie year in 2015. This was his first full game under new OC Matt LaFleur, and could potentially be a sign of what we can expect going forward from the former #2 overall pick and Heisman trophy winner. Corey Davis finally looked like the WR he was drafted to be, and the Titans poor run game should set Mariota up to beat teams through the air. He’s a safe start against a Buffalo defense that has allowed the 13th most fantasy points to opposing QB’s.
Andy Dalton (vs. Miami)
The Red Rifle is averaging a solid 19.8 fantasy PPG so far this season, including a 26-point fantasy performance against the Baltimore defense, who have allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy PPG to opposing QB’s. The Bengals offense has looked great so far this year and will play host to the Dolphins who, despite ranking 4th best among defenses to opposing QB’s in fantasy, were just shredded for 38 points in week 4. Dalton should finish this week right around his 20 PPG average.
Stay Away:
Jared Goff (@ Seattle)
Call me crazy, but I’m putting Jared Goff on the Stay Away list again. Yes, he threw for 465 yards and 5 TD’s, but he was also in a shootout against the Vikings. This stat line is not repeatable for any QB, so expect a hard return to earth and the 20 PPG average that Goff had recorded prior to week 4. The Rams will face Seattle this week, who are far less likely to match them TD for TD like Kirk Cousins and the Vikings did. Expect heavy usage from Gurley in the run game and a regression to the mean for Goff.
Derek Carr (@ L.A. Chargers)
Carr, in an OT thriller with the Browns, squeaked out a win while throwing for 437 yards and 4 TD’s. It was Oakland’s first win of the season and the first sign of hope for new HC Jon Gruden. However, the reason he’s on the Stay Away list, is that it’s very unlikely the Raiders are in very many shootout games like week 4’s. Last Sunday was his first game with 350+ passing yards since week 7 of 2017, so don’t expect it in back to back weeks. Carr has something to prove before he’s a dependable fantasy starter again.
Baker Mayfield (vs. Baltimore)
As a Baker Mayfield fan, this one hurts. But the numbers just simply aren’t there. In week 4’s loss to the Raiders, he completed just 21 of his 41 attempts for 295 yards and 2 TD’s, but also threw 2 INT’s. This week, he has a tough divisional matchup against the Ravens who have allowed an average of just 11.3 fantasy points to opposing QB’s, 6.2 points less than the league average. Let Baker ride the bench this week.
Running Backs
Play:
James White & Sony Michel (vs. Indianapolis)
It’s not often that the Patriots’ RB’s are the ones being hyped up in fantasy, but White and Michel are special. Combining for 39 fantasy points in standard leagues and 47 in PPR last week, these two could be 2018’s Ingram and Kamara. Michel looks to be the lead ground man, carrying the ball 25 times for 112 yards and 1 TD while adding zero receptions against the Dolphins in week 4. White added 8 carries of his own for 44 yards and 1 TD but was even more effective in the passing game, catching 8 passes on 10 targets for 68 yards and 1 TD. The addition of Gordon and return of Edelman should only open defenses up more and makes these 2 must-starts going forward.
Chris Thompson (@ New Orleans)
The question many fantasy owners face is whether or not AP or Thompson is going to have the big game. Well, in week 4, they face New Orleans. The Saints boast a top-tier offense and a vulnerable passing defense, setting the stage for Alex Smith to be throwing a lot and for Thompson to reap the benefits out of the backfield. He’s the Redskin RB to play in what should be a high scoring matchup with New Orleans.
T.J. Yeldon (@ Kansas City)
With Fournette being ruled out well in advance of Sunday’s game, Yeldon’s fantasy potential skyrockets. Yeldon has been both a reliable runner this season, averaging 4.2 YPC, and has added 14 catches for 125 yards and 2 TD’s. The Chiefs rank 31st in the league against opposing RB’s in fantasy, setting Yeldon up for a great opportunity to provide value as a bellcow, serving as the team’s lead RB with the potential to lead the team in catches.
Stay Away:
Dalvin Cook (@ Philadelphia)
Prior to his injury in his 4th game as a pro, Cook was averaging 4.8 YPC, 96 rushing yards per game, had scored on the ground 2 times, and caught 11 passes for 90 yards. His fantasy owners were hoping that he could return to that level of production when he came back this year, but he’s yet to carry the ball more than 16 times or gain 40 rushing yards in a game. He added good value as a pass catcher in the first two games, catching 9 passes for 107 yards, but caught 0 in the week 4 game against the rams. He admitted his hamstring isn’t 100% and his production shows it. Until he’s full-go, let him ride the bench.
Adrian Peterson (@ New Orleans)
As I mentioned when I said to start Chris Thompson, it’s for those exact reasons that I think AP doesn’t provide a lot of fantasy value in a matchup with the Saints. AP’s success so far this year relies heavily on game script, as his 2 solid games have come when the Redskins had leads late in the game and kept feeding him the ball to kill the clock. In a game where they’re more likely to be playing from behind against an elite Saints offense, Thompson should see the field more as he’s a far better option in the passing offense.
Alex Collins (@ Cleveland)
Collins has become a favorite of the Stay Away list, and as a fantasy owner of his, I’d really love for him to get off of it. But here are the facts: his fantasy total is still lower than Buck Allen’s, he only had 1 more carry than Allen in week 4, and had 1 fewer catch. If it weren’t for a 3-yard receiving TD, week 4 would have been a 2-point fantasy performance from Collins. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, Collins isn’t a reliable fantasy starter until he puts more distance between his productivity and Allen’s, especially near the goal line.
Wide Receivers
Play:
Tyler Boyd (vs. Miami)
Boyd has gone for either 100 yards or a TD in each of his last 3 games and was tied for the league lead in week 4 with 15 targets. He’s scrapped the label of being a complementary option to A.J. Green and has instead proven himself to be another option in the Cincinnati offense that demands attention. He received 7 more targets than A.J. Green and any other member of the Bengals offense, and with the loss of Tyler Eifert, his role should only increase going forward.
Calvin Ridley (@ Pittsburgh)
I was as low on Julio Jones as anybody else was prior to fantasy drafts, but even I never expected that through 4 weeks, someone else would lead the Falcons WR’s in fantasy points. Over the last 3 weeks, Ridley has caught 15 passes for 264 yards and 6 TD’s, totaling 61 standard fantasy points and 76 PPR points. He clearly has the trust of Matt Ryan, who is statistically better through 4 weeks this year than he was during his 2016 MVP campaign, and has tremendous upside going forward. Pittsburgh’s defense has given up the 4th most fantasy points to opposing WR’s and the trend should continue against Atlanta’s high-powered offense.
Corey Davis (@ Buffalo)
Davis received a whopping 15 targets in week 4’s win over the Eagles. He caught 9 for 161 yards and 1 TD, which happened to be the game winning score in OT. This is the kind of production the Titans were hoping for out of Corey Davis when they drafted him 5th overall in 2017, and will surely look to keep him so heavily involved in the offense while their run game continues to struggle. The Titans look prepared to put the ball in Mariota’s hands when it matters most, and bodes well for Davis going into a matchup with the Buffalo Bills’ vulnerable secondary.
Stay Away:
Tyreek Hill (vs. Jacksonville)
Tyreek wowed us all in week 1, taking 7 catches for 169 yards and 2 TD’s while also running a punt back for a score. Since then, Hill has 195 receiving yards and 1 TD through 3 games. He’s still heavily targeted and has caught 16 passes over the last 3 games, but the big plays don’t seem to be coming to Hill as naturally as they used to, despite the Chiefs offense being as high-powered as they’ve ever been in Hill’s tenure. Hill faces a particularly tough matchup this week, where he’ll surely draw the attention of the entire defense. The Jags defense is fast and has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing WR’s this year. If there’s ever been a game to bench Tyreek Hill, it’s this one.
Amari Cooper (@ L.A. Chargers)
1 catch for 9 yards. 10 catches for 116 yards. 2 catches for 17 yards. 8 catches for 128 yards and 1 TD. It’s almost impossible to be any more unpredictable than Cooper has been so far this season, totaling a combined 1 fantasy point in weeks 1 and 3 as opposed to 29 fantasy points in weeks 2 and 4. Jared Cook has taken over as the #1 option for Carr in the passing game, leading the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and yards per game. He’s also tied for the team lead in receiving TD’s with Jordy Nelson. Cooper’s unpredictability and inconsistent usage makes him a risky play any week and, for that reason, he made the week 5 Stay Away list.
Kenny Golladay (vs. Green Bay)
Golladay got off to a hot start this year, catching 13 passes for 203 yards and 1 TD through the first two weeks. Over the last two weeks, he’s caught just 10 passes for 127 yards and 1 TD. In week 4, against a questionable Dallas defense, he received only 4 targets. His role in the offense seems to be diminishing and for that reason, he’s on the Stay Away list this week and will remain there until his production returns towards that of his first two weeks.
Tight Ends
Play:
Jared Cook (@ L.A. Chargers)
In what is probably a surprise to just about everybody, Jared Cook is the #1 TE in fantasy football through the first 4 weeks. He is averaging 6.5 catches and 123.3 yards ranking 15th in the league in catches and 10th in the league in receiving yards. He’s become the #1 passing option for the Raiders, as he’s been targeted at least 5 more times than any of his teammates and has 96 more yards than the next highest player on the team. TE is a thin fantasy position in 2018, and that combined with Cook’s production makes him a must-start going forward.
George Kittle (vs. Arizona)
Kittle has been a very reliable TE option so far this year, averaging 4.5 catches for 79 yards so far. His biggest game of the year (6 catches for 125 yards and 1 TD) came in C.J. Beathard’s first start. He totaled 18 standard fantasy points while the 49ers WR’s combined for just 17. Looking forward, it appears that he’ll be the #1 target in SF. Arizona’s defense has been rough so far this year which bodes well for Kittle in week 5.
Vance McDonald (vs. Atlanta)
Last week, Vance McDonald and Jesse James both made the Stay Away list as it was unclear which of them would be the primary pass catching TE in the Steelers offense. McDonald was a blocker 3 times and a receiver 32 times against Baltimore on Sunday night while James was a blocker on nearly half of his only 23 snaps. McDonald has caught 9 passes for 174 yards and a TD over the last 2 weeks and has exhibited big play potential which gives him TE1 potential in a pass-heavy Pittsburgh offense.
Stay Away:
Jesse James (vs. Atlanta)
As mentioned directly above, James was used primarily as a blocker on Sunday night while McDonald got the majority of the receiving work. James got off to a great start this season, catching a combined 8 passes for 198 yards and 1 TD in the first two games. Since then, he’s caught just 2 passes for 32 yards. As long as McDonald is healthy, James has little to no fantasy value.
Austin Sefarian-Jenkins (@ Kansas City)
TE is an incredibly thin position in fantasy this year, which gave ASJ decent sleeper value after catching 50 passes for 357 yards and 3 TD’s last year in a slow Jets offense. He’s yet to deliver on that value despite what has been a surprisingly pass-heavy Jacksonville offense, catching just 11 passes for 90 yards and 1 TD. Until he starts getting more redzone work to make up for his lack of production over the middle of the field, ASJ has little to no fantasy value.
Austin Hooper (@ Pittsburgh)
Hooper has caught an impressive 82% of passes thrown his way, but unfortunately, that 82% is just 12 catches and he’s only taken them for 125 yards. Aside from week 2 when he caught 5 for 59 and found the endzone, he’s yet to post higher than a 4 fantasy point performance in standard scoring leagues. The Falcons have a bevy of weapons and there aren’t enough targets to go around for Hooper to provide good fantasy value.