Play/Stay Away - Week 6
The 2018 NFL season has gotten off to a crazy start. The Browns and Bears are good, the Steelers and Falcons are bad. We seem to have stumbled into some alternate parallel universe seeing as there's only 4 teams in the NFC with records over .500 as opposed to 8 teams in the AFC. As you can see, predicting in the NFL is pretty close to impossible. Let the Week 6 Play/Stay Away column help you out. Here are my Play and my Stay Away picks for this week:
Quarterbacks
Play:
Matt Ryan (vs. Tampa Bay)
Matty Ice has returned a bit to his 2016 MVP form this year, averaging 23.6 fantasy PPG, including an average of 32 fantasy PPG from weeks 2-4. To make his job easier, Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and Calvin Ridley make up one of the league’s better groups of WR’s. The Buccaneers rank 32nd among fantasy QB’s, 31st against fantasy WR’s, and 32nd against fantasy TE’s. This divisional matchup bodes very well for Ryan and the Atlanta passing attack.
Blake Bortles (@ Dallas)
Surprisingly, the Jaguars are one of the league’s pass-heaviest offenses, and Bortles’ fantasy totals show it. He’s gone for 20+ fantasy points 3 times so far this year and he’s thrown for over 375 yards 3 times. Dallas has been middle of the road against fantasy QB’s so far this season, and 2 of Blake’s 3 20+ fantasy point performances have come in games that Fournette missed. Fournette has already been ruled out for this game, which should open the floodgates for Bortles to air it out.
Andrew Luck (@ New York Jets)
Luck started off slow this season, fantasy wise, but has 22+ points each of the last 2 weeks. In each of those 2 games, he’s thrown for at least 360 yards and 3 TD’s. Luck is also on pace for 784 pass attempts this season, which would shatter the NFL record by 57 attempts. The Colts have been struggling to move the ball on the ground, and that’s showing no signs of changing. Expect roughly 50 pass attempts from Luck again this weekend, and that many attempts for a QB of Luck’s caliber bode well for fantasy owners.
Stay Away:
Mitchell Trubisky (@ Miami)
Trubisky was probably one of your league’s most popular waiver claims so far this year, after he threw for 350 yards and 6 TD’s in week 4 against the Bucs. Expect a harsh return to the Earth for Trubisky this weekend. He was averaging just 10.33 fantasy PPG prior to the Bucs game, Miami is the 2nd toughest team in the league against fantasy QB’s and Trubisky, aside from 2 weeks ago, has never thrown more than 2 TD passes in a game. He has yet to post enough strong fantasy performances to warrant being a must-start player.
Ben Roethlisberger (@ Cincinnati)
Ben Roethlisberger’s home/road splits are one of the hottest talking points in fantasy football, and for good reason: the differences in his fantasy performances at home vs. on the road over the last few years are night and day. The Steelers go on the road this week for a divisional matchup with Cincinnati, a contest that always gets overly physical. The Bengals defense also already has 5 interceptions and 3 forced fumbles this year, so Ben isn’t in for a cakewalk this weekend.
Running Backs
Play:
James White & Sony Michel (vs. Kansas City)
Over the last 2 weeks, James White has averaged 17.5 fantasy PPG in standard scoring leagues and 26.5 fantasy PPG in PPR scoring. Sony Michel has averaged 16.5 fantasy PPG in standard scoring leagues and 17 fantasy PPG in PPR scoring. The Patriots have scored 38 points in each of the last 2 weeks and have proved they’re still one of the NFL’s most prolific offenses, and have proven that they’re more than capable of sustaining 2 RB’s. White and Michel are both must-starts from this point on.
T.J. Yeldon (@ Dallas)
Yeldon is averaging a solid 12.4 fantasy PPG in standard scoring leagues and 16.8 fantasy PPG in PPR scoring. He’s proving himself to be a very capable RB1 during Fournette’s absences, and he has posted fantasy performances of 19 and 17 standard scoring points the last 2 weeks. As long as Fournette is out, Yeldon is a must-start due to the volume of both carries and targets that he receives. This week, the Jags play Dallas, who just allowed Alfred Blue to go for double digit fantasy points on Sunday night.
Stay Away:
Isaiah Crowell (vs. Indianapolis)
In week 5 against the Broncos, Isaiah Crowell carried the ball 15 times for 219 yards and 1 TD. That yardage combined with that carry total is incredible, which is probably why a lot of people are planning to start Crowell this week. While an average of 13.8 standard fantasy PPG looks great, I wouldn’t be so confident. So far this year, Crowell has posted fantasy performances of: 22, 3, 16, 0, 28. His workload stays constant, receiving between 10 and 16 carries in 4 of those 5 games, but what he does with the ball is unpredictable. For that reason, I’d advise not starting Crowell until he becomes a little more dependable.
Royce Freeman (vs. L.A. Rams)
Despite averaging a solid 5.1 yards per carry, Freeman is averaging 9.8 carries per game while Phillip Lindsay is averaging 11.4 carries per game. He is also on the field less than Lindsay on passing downs, so game script is a largely contributing factor to Freeman’s fantasy success. The Broncos face the Rams this week, so expect the Broncos to be forced to throw the ball, leading to a whole lot of Phillip Lindsay and not a lot of Royce Freeman.
Adrian Peterson (vs. Carolina)
Despite 2 very good fantasy performances so far this year, Peterson has 2 very bad ones to go right along with them. His worst was this past Monday night against the Saints, where he carried the ball 4 times for 6 yards and caught 2 passes for 36 yards. Like Freeman, AP’s success is very game-script dependent. Until the Redskins prove he’ll remain on the field regardless of the game situation, he’s a risky start in fantasy, and for that reason is on the Stay Away list in week 6.
Wide Receivers
Play:
Keke Coutee (vs. Buffalo)
Keke Coutee seems to have quickly carved out a role for himself in the Texans pass-heavy offense after missing the first 3 games of the season. He’s gone for double digits each of the last 2 weeks, catching a combined 17 passes for 160 yards and 1 TD. Even as a WR3, Coutee was on the field for 57 (out of 80) snaps in Sunday night’s game against the Cowboys. He’s being targeted an average of 9.5 times per game so far, which gives him high upside as a fantasy option. He significantly outperformed Will Fuller last week, which shows he already has Watson’s trust. He’s a WR2/Flex option moving forward, even if Hopkins and Fuller are both healthy.
Mohamed Sanu (vs. Tampa Bay)
Overshadowed in Atlanta’s WR room by Julio Jones and breakout rookie Calvin Ridley, Mohamed Sanu has flown under the radar on his way to 3 straight double digit fantasy performances and he’s actually a top-15 fantasy WR over the last 3 weeks. He is averaging 11.7 fantasy PPG in standard scoring over his past 3 games and will now face the Buccaneers, who are 31st in the league against fantasy WR’s. Sanu ranks as a mid-tier WR2/high-end Flex this week in this divisional matchup.
Jordy Nelson (vs. Seattle)
After combining for only 5 points through the first 2 weeks of this season, Jordy has combined for 45 over the last 3 weeks. He has found the endzone in each of the last 3 games and has now accumulated 19 more points than Amari Cooper and 32 more points than Martavis Bryant. He’s the most productive WR in Oakland by a significant margin and is the only consistent WR they have. Nelson is a good start against a Seattle defense that has been middle of the road against fantasy WR’s this year.
Stay Away:
Mike Evans (@ Atlanta)
Evans had a great start to the season, totaling at least 12 fantasy points in standard scoring leagues through the first 3 weeks. Against Chicago in week 4, he accumulated only 5. The concern comes less from the one bad game and more from the return of Jameis Winston. Last year, Evans averaged just 7.8 fantasy PPG in standard scoring leagues and went for double digit points only 6 times with Winston playing QB. Evans has to prove he can be as productive with Winston as he was with Fitzpatrick to get back onto the Play list.
Will Fuller (vs. Buffalo)
Fuller was on the Play list just a couple weeks ago after posting back to back games with at least 5 catches, 100 yards, and 1 TD. After combining for 33 fantasy points in those 2 games, he’s combined for just 11 in the last 2. In those last 2 games, he has combined for 6 catches for 64 yards and 1 TD. In those same 2 games, Keke Coutee has 17 catches for 160 yards and 1 TD. It seems there has been a changing of the guard in terms of Deshaun Watson’s WR2. Until Fuller proves that statement to be false, he’s a risky play as a deep TD would likely have to salvage his fantasy performance.
Keenan Allen (@ Cleveland)
Back in week 3 against the Rams, I put Allen on the Stay Away list for the first time. In weeks 3-5, Allen has caught just 18 passes for 197 yards and 0 TD’s. In fact, he hasn’t found the endzone since week 1, which was his only double digit fantasy performance of the season. In week 6 against Cleveland, he’ll likely draw the attention of Denzel Ward, who has lived up to his #4 overall draft pick hype.
Tight Ends
Play:
Cameron Brate (@ Atlanta)
After not being targeted a single time by Ryan Fitzpatrick in weeks 1 and 2, Brate has caught 3 passes and scored in each of the Bucs last 2 games. He finished last season as TE8 in fantasy with Winston at QB while O.J. Howard, who was superior at the start of this season to Brate, was TE15. He has an established rapport with Winston and the Bucs are a pass-heavy offense with no sign of that changing, given their current RB performances. Start Brate going forward.
Austin Hooper (vs. Tampa Bay)
Usually a staple of the Stay Away list, Hooper finds himself on the Play list in week 6. Hooper caught 9 passes for 77 yards last week. He has a great chance to build on this high volume performance against the Buccaneers, who are 32nd in the league against fantasy TE’s. The Falcons are still a pass-heavy offense and Hooper has a chance any game to produce like he did last week as long as he’s healthy.
George Kittle (@ Green Bay)
If I gave you the option to have George Kittle, Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, or Kyle Rudolph for the last 3 weeks, who would you choose? The right choice would be George Kittle. Over the last 3 weeks, Kittle has caught 16 passes for 287 yards and 1 TD, a total of 35 standard fantasy points. These numbers are very high for the TE position this year, which has been painfully thin. He’s clearly C.J. Beathard’s favorite target and is a must-start TE as long as he’s healthy.
Stay Away:
Eric Ebron (@ New York Jets)
Ebron was incredible last week, catching 9 passes for 105 yards and finding the endzone twice. However, this week, the Colts face the Jets. The Jets are the league’s best defense against fantasy TE’s, allowing an average of just 3.4 standard fantasy PPG to the position. The TE position is very thin, so you may be left without an option but to play Ebron. But if you have the depth available, this is as likely a week as any that Ebron is going to be held to minimal fantasy relevance.
Trey Burton (@ Miami)
One of the most common sleeper picks for 2018 fantasy football, Burton has been decent, but hasn’t quite lived up to the hype. He’s averaging 7 fantasy PPG in standard scoring, but posted a 1-point and a 5-point game in weeks 1 and 3, respectively. Excluding week 1, Miami has allowed an average of just 4 standard fantasy PPG to the TE position, making Burton a risky play in week 6.
David Njoku (vs. L.A. Chargers)
Njoku was one of my biggest sleepers going into 2018, so I’m sad to say that his season has been disappointing so far. With just 17 points in standard scoring after 5 games, Njoku is still not a reliable starter. His performances have been increasing since Baker Mayfield took over the starting job but he still has not yet found the endzone. He’s worth a bench stash right now, but nothing more.