Play/Stay Away - Week 7
The NFL is currently on pace to score more points than any other season in league history. You know who is reaping the benefits of that? Us. Fantasy football players. With all the TD's to go around, fantasy football is as high scoring as ever. As a result, the Stay Away list has become increasingly harder to put together. There's so many players who are significant threats to find the endzone week in and week out. But, I never back down from a challenge. Check out who you should play, and who you should stay away from in week 7.
Quarterbacks
Play:
Jared Goff (@ San Francisco)
Jared Goff sits at the head of the most dominant offense in the NFL. He’s averaging a whopping 19.7 fantasy PPG and will face the 49ers in week 7, who have allowed every QB they’ve played to go for 19+ fantasy points with the exception of Josh Rosen. As long as Sean McVay is the mastermind behind the offense, you can count on the Rams players to deliver in fantasy, especially against the defense currently ranking 27th overall among fantasy QB’s.
Andy Dalton (@ Kansas City)
The Chiefs have allowed 20+ fantasy PPG this year during 5 of their 6 games. Andy Dalton is averaging 18 fantasy PPG and has thrown 2 or more TD’s in 5 of his 6 games so far. The Chiefs have been weak defensively, with their offense keeping them in shootout games. Expect more of the same this week, making Dalton a must-start in what should be a high-scoring battle with the Chiefs.
Joe Flacco (vs. New Orleans)
As good as the Ravens defense has been, it takes a defense of a whole other level to stop Drew Brees. The Saints possess an elite offense capable of hanging 30 points on any team, so expect Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense to find themselves playing from behind early. Flacco has been playing without a lot of mistakes, as he’s tied for 17th in the league in interceptions thrown. In what will likely be a game where he’ll have to throw more than usual, expect Flacco to top his 16 fantasy PPG average.
Stay Away:
Andrew Luck (vs. Buffalo)
Andrew Luck has been airing it out as of late, breaking the record for most pass attempts through the first 6 games of a season. As effective as he’s been with all of these attempts, he has yet to face a top-5 fantasy defense against QB’s. In week 7, the Colts will face the Bills, who are 3rd overall against QB’s. Luck has also thrown 5 interceptions over the last 2 games. His consistency turning the ball over and the caliber of Buffalo’s defense make Luck a risky play in week 7.
Deshaun Watson (@ Jacksonville)
Watson is coming off of an awful performance against the Buffalo Bills, where he totaled just 5 fantasy points. He also has been intercepted in 8 consecutive games, going back to last season. This week, he’ll face Jacksonville, a defense with something to prove after getting blown out by the Dallas Cowboys last week. They have enough good defenders to keep the Houston WR’s in check and the speed to close quickly when he scrambles. If you have another QB option on your roster, let Watson ride the bench in week 7.
Jameis Winston (vs. Cleveland)
Jameis had a huge game in his first start of the 2018 season, throwing for just under 400 yards and tossing 4 TD’s. It was a statement game from the man who everyone thought didn’t deserve his old job back. So why is he on the Stay Away list in week 7? This isn’t a level of play that James has proven he can maintain. Last year, Winston had just 4 games of 20+ points in fantasy. I’m not sold on Jameis Winston just yet, and won’t be until he proves this is a sustainable level of production.
Running Backs
Play:
Phillip Lindsay (@ Arizona)
After a hot start to the 2018 season, Lindsay’s fantasy owners have been reasonably disappointed as he’s tallied just 168 rushing yards, 78 receiving yards, and 1 TD over the past 4 games. In week 7, he has a great shot at redemption against the Cardinals, who currently rank 32nd in the league against fantasy RB’s. They’ve allowed RB’s to total an average of 28.5 PPG against them, 11.5 more than the league average. These totals have been conceded to the likes of Latavius Murray, Matt Breida, and Mike Davis.
Frank Gore (vs. Detroit)
For the last 4 games, Frank Gore has led the Miami backfield in touches. His yardage has steadily increased as his carries have, and he went over the 100-yard mark on Sunday with just 15 carries. The Lions are allowing an average of 5.98 yards per carry to opposing RB’s, the most in the NFL. They rank 30th in the NFL in fantasy PPG allowed to opposing RB’s, setting Gore up nicely for a big game.
Latavius Murray (@ New York Jets)
The Vikings have been struggling to run the ball all year, but that changed on Sunday when Murray got his second start of the season. He more than doubled his season high in carries against the Cardinals, taking 24 carries for 155 yards and 1 TD. He’s proving to be the superior runner in Minnesota, distancing himself more and more from Dalvin Cook. The Vikings coaching staff is certainly aware of this and will game plan accordingly.
Stay Away:
Mark Ingram (@ Baltimore)
Ingram’s hefty share of the workload against Washington in week 5 was largely a product of game script as well as giving Kamara a break for shouldering such a heavy load weeks 1-4. Now coming off a bye, Kamara is well rested. The Saints will return to the RB tandem approach they utilized last year, but Kamara has the advantage in expected playing time as he’s the clear guy to have on the field on passing downs. On top of that, Baltimore is the #1 defense against RB’s in fantasy, so a bruiser back like Ingram is less likely to find success than a shifty back like Kamara.
Adrian Peterson (vs. Dallas)
Peterson has been pretty inconsistent these last 2 years, as his success is heavily dependent on game script and finding the endzone. In the 2 games where Peterson has found the endzone this year, he has a combined 216 rushing yards, 3 TD’s, and 44 standard fantasy points. In the 3 games where he hasn’t scored, he has a combined 123 yards and 17 standard fantasy points. The Cowboys just scored 40 points on the Jaguars, and if they can come even close to doing so again, Thompson should dominate the time in the backfield. Let AP ride the bench this week against a top-6 defense against fantasy RB’s.
Jordan Howard (vs. New England)
Howard rushed for 1,313 yards in 2016 and 1,122 yards in 2017. Many people were expecting more of the same in 2018, especially after new HC Matt Nagy had such positive things to say about him in the preseason. However, after 6 games, he’s on pace for just over 700 yards this year. A traditional runner who isn’t a great pass-catcher just isn’t the right fit for the Matt Nagy offense, which is why Tarik Cohen is RB22 so far this year and Howard is RB36. Until the Bears take a more traditional approach to their run game, Cohen is the Bears RB to play.
Wide Receivers
Play:
Tyler Boyd (@ Kansas City)
Boyd has been one of the big surprises of the 2018 fantasy season. He has more receiving yards than guys like Keenan Allen, Tyreek Hill, Golden Tate, A.J. Green, and Jarvis Landry. He has more receiving TD’s than DeAndre Hopkins, Travis Kelce, Odell Beckham Jr., and Julio Jones. He’s the 11th highest scoring WR in fantasy. He is an integral part of the Cincinnati offense, the 6th highest scoring offense in the league averaging 29 PPG. The matchup with Kansas City should provide plenty of opportunity for Boyd and the Bengals offense, making way for a big week 7 outing.
Kenny Golladay (@ Miami)
Thought coming into the year to be Detroit’s 3rd option at WR, Golladay actually has the same number of fantasy points as Golden Tate through 6 weeks. He is tied for the team lead in receiving TD’s with both Golden Tate and Marvin Jones, so there’s clearly no lack of trust there with Matthew Stafford. His 3 TD’s have also come in the last 4 games. He’s 2nd in targets on a pass-first offense, giving a player of his size and athleticism high upside week in and week out.
Robert Woods & Brandin Cooks (@ San Francisco)
Woods currently ranks as WR6 in fantasy and Cooks ranks as WR24. Tied with Woods at WR6 is Cooper Kupp, who has already been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the 49ers. Kupp’s 6 targets per game will have to go elsewhere. Woods has topped 100 yards for 3 of his last 4 games and Cooks has gone over 85 yards in 4 of the 5 games that he has played in, including topping 100 twice. The 49ers rank 23rd overall against fantasy WR’s, and the Rams high-powered offense provides anybody in it with high upside. All Rams weapons should be started going forward.
Stay Away:
Albert Wilson (vs. Detroit)
Albert Wilson was incredible in the week 6 win over the Bears. He caught 6 passes for 155 yards and 2 TD’s. He did the brunt of his damage after the catch, turning 2 short passes into a 43-yard and a 75-yard TD. This type of run-after-catch ability is so unpredictable that it makes Wilson a very risky play in fantasy football. You can see that he was also featured on week 7’s “sell high” list. Players like Wilson are boom or bust, and can’t be relied on as fantasy starters.
Demaryius Thomas (@ Arizona)
Those expecting DT to return to elite fantasy status with a QB improvement this year have likely been disappointed, as he’s barely a top-30 fantasy WR so far. He has yet to catch 7 passes in a game and he has only gone for more than 63 yards 1 time. A TD last week masked what was otherwise an ugly performance, catching only 3 passes for 57 yards. Emmanuel Sanders has emerged as the WR you want in this offense, and DT will likely see a lot of attention from Patrick Peterson in week 7. Let him sit this one out.
Tyrell Williams (vs. Tennessee)
Tyrell Williams has been awful this year. He hasn’t caught 4 passes in a game and, prior to week 6 against the Browns, his max yardage in a single game was 66 and he hadn’t found the endzone since week 1. He’s rightfully owned in just 5% of leagues. However, in week 6, he caught 3 passes for 118 yards and 2 TD’s. A big enough game that players lacking depth due to bye weeks are ready to plug him into the starting lineup. To those people, I say just 1 word…don’t. Taking just 3 catches for 118 yards and finding paydirt twice is not something any receiver is likely to repeat. Keep him in free agency or at the end of your bench in week 7.
Tight Ends
Play:
Austin Hooper (vs. New York Giants)
Coming off of back-to-back, 9 catch/70 yard games, Austin Hooper has climbed into the top-10 for TE’s in fantasy football. His 18 catches over the last 2 weeks are tied for the league lead in that time with Adam Thielen. The Giants have been successful containing TE’s so far this year, but they haven’t really been challenged yet. Look for Hooper to continue to benefit as guys like Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Mohamed Sanu attract all the attention.
David Njoku (@ Tampa Bay)
Njoku was one of my sleepers prior to fantasy drafts this year, and he’s finally starting to produce at that level. Over the last 3 weeks, he is tied with Jarvis Landry for the team lead in targets. He has set season highs for himself in catches each of the last 3 weeks and found the endzone for the first time this year last week against the Chargers. The Bucs have allowed the most fantasy points to TE’s so far this year, setting Njoku up well for another big game in week 7.
O.J. Howard (vs. Cleveland)
Howard has been exactly what the Bucs hoped he would be when they drafted him in the first round in 2017. He’s a matchup nightmare that can make things happen after the catch. He’s TE7 through 6 weeks of fantasy football. The Browns present a solid pass rush, which will likely lead to Winston needing to hit a security blanket early and often, setting Howard up for another big performance.
Stay Away:
Jordan Reed (vs. Dallas)
Surprisingly, Jordan Reed is still healthy. Also a surprise, he isn’t even a top-15 TE. He’s scored double digit fantasy points in standard scoring leagues just once this year, and hasn’t found the endzone since week 1. Dallas has been solid against the TE position this year, allowing the 5th fewest fantasy points to the position. With Jamison Crowder and Chris Thompson likely to play this week, Reed’s target share will drop from its season high 9 targets in week 6, only lowering his ceiling.
Kyle Rudolph (@ New York Jets)
Another slow start to the fantasy season, Rudolph comes in at TE10 after 6 weeks. He hasn’t scored since week 3, and has delivered decent fantasy performances every week, but nothing to write home about. As Adam Thielen has emerged into a star this year, Rudolph’s looks in the passing game have dropped. The Jets haven’t been an easy matchup for TE’s so far this year, so Rudolph will really have his work cut out for him in week 7.
C.J. Uzomah (@ Kansas City)
Uzomah has put together a couple of decent performances since Eifert hurt his ankle and was placed on the IR, catching a combined 8 passes for 97 yards over the last 2 weeks. Aside from Pittsburgh in week 2, Kansas City has been solid against the TE position, allowing an average of just 7.4 fantasy PPG and 0 TD’s. Let Uzomah get comfortable on the bench this week.