Play/Stay Away - Week 9
In week 9, the NFL has 6 teams on a bye week. This week, you need to replace players like Odell Beckham Jr., Saquon Barkley, A.J. Green, Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Golden Tate, Alshon Jeffrey, Carson Wentz, T.J. Yeldon, Andrew Luck, Marlon Mack, Jack Doyle, and Eric Ebron. You could put together a historically great offense with the players on a bye this week. Be sure to check out the Play/Stay Away article for week 9, to see who you should and shouldn't plug into your fantasy lineup!
Quarterbacks
Play:
Ryan Fitzpatrick (@ Carolina)
Fitzmagic has returned! After 3 games as the backup, Ryan Fitzpatrick has once again been named the starting QB of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and fantasy football players everywhere are rejoicing. With weapons like Mike Evans, O.J. Howard, Chris Godwin, Desean Jackson, and Adam Humphries, Fitz has his pick of the lot. The Bucs employ a vertical passing offense that Fitzpatrick fits perfectly into, and he just produced an 18 fantasy point performance while playing less than half the game. Expect a return to his week 1-3 glory days in this divisional matchup with Carolina, who have been middle of the road against fantasy QB’s.
Russell Wilson (L.A. Chargers)
After a slow start to the 2018 season, Russell Wilson is finally starting to look like Russell Wilson again. The Seahawks have shifted towards a run first offense, but all that has done is open the door for Wilson and the passing game. His yardage totals aren’t anything to write home about, but he is playing smart football, turning the ball over only once in his last 5 games, and he has thrown 3 TD’s in each of his last 3. The Chargers have been average against fantasy QB’s, but their offense makes teams have to throw to stay competitive, and Russell Wilson should reap the benefits on Sunday.
Stay Away:
Mitchell Trubisky (@ Buffalo)
Trubisky has maintained a high floor in fantasy by adding an average of 7.7 fantasy PPG on the ground over his last 3 games. In week 9, the Bears travel to Buffalo to play the Bills. Despite Buffalo’s poor record, they’re a top-4 team against fantasy QB’s, holding Kirk Cousins to 9 points, Aaron Rodgers to 14, Deshaun Watson to 5, and Tom Brady to 12. All of those quarterbacks are top-10 fantasy QB’s after 8 weeks, and their lack of success against this Buffalo defense is why Trubisky makes the Stay Away list in week 9.
Philip Rivers (@ Seattle)
Philip Rivers, consistently one of fantasy’s most underrated QB’s, has had a good start to 2018. He’s currently QB9 averaging 20.6 fantasy PPG after 8 weeks, and has thrown at least 2 TD’s in every game so far this year. However, despite Seattle no longer having the legion of boom, they’re still the #1 defense against fantasy QB’s. No QB has scored 20 fantasy points against them yet this year, and only Matthew Stafford has hit the 15-point mark against them since week 1. For that reason, Rivers makes an appearance on the Stay Away list in week 9.
Matthew Stafford (@ Minnesota)
Matthew Stafford fantasy drafters (a.k.a. me) are surely hating Matt Patricia’s move to a more balanced offensive approach, despite the fact that it’s working (the Lions are 3-4, but are just 1 game out of first place in the NFC North). Stafford has only surpassed 20 fantasy points in 2 games so far this year, and hasn’t since week 4 against the Cowboys. If you take away an unreal performance by Jared Goff in week 4, Minnesota has conceded an average of just 13.4 fantasy PPG to opposing QB’s, including holding Drew Brees to 7 points in week 8. For those reasons, Stafford makes the Stay Away list.
Running Backs
Play:
Chris Carson (@ L.A. Chargers)
Fantasy football success is all about volume and opportunity, and those two things are present in abundance for Chris Carson. He is averaging 22.5 carries per game during his last 4 games, as well as 13 standard fantasy PPG. What started this season as a true RB by committee approach, the Seattle backfield has turned into a whole lot of Carson. The Chargers have given up an average of 16.3 fantasy PPG to opposing RB’s this year, and the Seahawks have shown no signs of shifting away from their run-dominant offensive approach. Expect a lot of opportunity for Carson in week 9.
Latavius Murray (vs. Detroit)
A Minnesota run game that was non-existent with Dalvin Cook starting has been revitalized by Latavius Murray. Averaging 18 standard fantasy PPG over the last 3 weeks, Murray has carried the ball 52 times for 280 yards and 4 TD’s. He has 6 catches for 56 yards in that stretch as well. Dalvin Cook is expected to still be out until after the bye week, and Detroit is the 5th worst defense in the NFL against fantasy RB’s, setting Murray up nicely for another big game as the RB1.
Lamar Miller (@ Denver)
Miller is the first Texans RB since Arian Foster in 2014 to rush for 100+ yards in back to back games. Over the last 3 games, he is averaging over 19 touches and over 100 scrimmage yards, eliminating any rumors that Alfred Blue or D’Onta Foreman could start vulturing a decent chunk of Miller’s touches. Despite the reputation of the Denver defense, they’re a bottom-10 defense against fantasy RB’s, and the addition via trade of Demaryius Thomas should force defenses to respect Deshaun Watson and the passing game even more, setting Miller up nicely moving forward.
Stay Away:
Alex Collins (vs. Pittsburgh)
Collins has had a fairly disappointing start to the 2018 fantasy season, averaging just 8.5 standard fantasy PPG and barely coming in as a top-20 RB halfway through the year. While he has distanced himself in usage from Javorius Allen, his lack of involvement in the passing game combined with a lack of goal-to-go work limits his fantasy potential. The Steelers are a top-4 defense in the league against fantasy RB’s, setting Collins up with a tough matchup this week. The addition via trade of Ty Montgomery doesn’t help either, as the Ravens likely wouldn’t have acquired him without the intention of utilizing him.
Tevin Coleman (@ Washington)
Despite having the starting role since week 2, those who handcuffed Coleman in the possibility Freeman got hurt probably were hoping for a little more out of him. He is averaging just 8.9 standard fantasy PPG. He has had a fair amount of the short TD’s vultured from him by Ito Smith, which has seriously capped his fantasy potential. The Falcons play Washington this week, the 6th best defense in the NFL against fantasy RB’s. Coleman has a tough challenge ahead of him this week, and for these reasons, he’s on the Stay Away list.
Nick Chubb (vs. Kansas City)
The good news: Nick Chubb is getting plenty of volume in the Cleveland offense as the starter. The bad news: he’s averaging just 10.5 standard fantasy PPG over the last 2 weeks. Despite the Chiefs conceding the 2nd most fantasy PPG to opposing RB’s, Chubb makes the Stay Away list due to projected game script. The Chiefs are averaging scoring 36.25 PPG, often forcing teams to play from behind and embrace a pass heavy offense to try and play catch-up. For that reason, Chubb makes the Stay Away list in week 9.
Wide Receivers
Play:
Marvin Jones (@ Minnesota)
In week 8 against the Seahawks, Marvin Jones caught 7 passes for 117 yards and 2 TD’s, setting season highs for himself in all 3 categories. Coming off his best game of the year, the Lions also just traded Golden Tate to the Eagles. Marvin Jones now jumps from the third option in the passing game to the second option, setting him up for increases in targets and all receiving categories. Kirk Cousins, Latavius Murray, Stefon Diggs, and emerging superstar Adam Thielen make up one of the best offensive foursomes in football so the idea that the Lions will have to play from behind and air it out isn’t ridiculous. Marvin Jones was WR5 last year in standard scoring leagues, and it’s possible he could return to that form for the second half of the season.
David Moore (@ L.A. Chargers)
An unknown name prior to week 4, David Moore has caught 11 passes for 221 yards and 4 TD’s over the last 4 games. He has caught 85% of his passes and leads his team in both receiving yards and TD’s over that stretch. The Chargers are allowing 23.6 standard fantasy PPG to opposing WR’s, a number higher than the league average, and Moore’s attention from and chemistry with Russell Wilson, as well as his TD rate, give him a high ceiling in week 9 against a high powered Chargers team.
Danny Amendola (vs. N.Y. Jets)
Amendola’s last two weeks have been his best two game stretch of the season. He has caught 11 passes for 127 yards and a TD, as well as thrown for 28 yards and a TD. Kenny Stills could miss another game this week, making Amendola still the most dependable WR option for Brock Osweiler. On top of all that, the Jets defense has been awful against WR’s this year, ranking 25th in the league, and they’ve especially struggled against the slot. Amendola is due for another solid, dependable outing in week 9.
Stay Away:
Sammy Watkins (@ Cleveland)
In week 8, Sammy Watkins caught 8 passes for 107 yards and 2 TD’s, his best game of the year by a significant margin. While many are hoping this is just a sign of things to come for Watkins in this Kansas City offense, we’d advise you to err on the side of caution. Watkins has proven through his 5 years in the league to be a boom or bust player, and he’s still only the 4th option in this offense behind Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Kareem Hunt. One big game from Watkins isn’t enough to immediately plug him into your starting lineup.
Keenan Allen (@ Seattle)
Keenan Allen has had an incredibly disappointing start to the 2018 fantasy season. He was drafted to be a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 and halfway through the season, is just a high-end WR4. He is averaging only 8 standard fantasy PPG and has scored only 1 TD, which came way back in week 1. He’ll likely get the majority of the attention from Seattle’s secondary on Sunday setting him up for another sub 10-point performance.
Devin Funchess (vs. Tampa Bay)
Funchess was on the Stay Away list last week, and caught just 3 passes for 27 yards. He seems to be fading into option #4 in the Carolina offense, behind Christian McCaffrey, Greg Olsen, and D.J. Moore (5 catches/90 yards, 2 carries/39 yards in week 8). With Curtis Samuel, Jarius Wright, and Torrey Smith remaining involved in the offense, there just aren’t enough targets to go around for someone as low in the pecking order as Funchess to maintain dependable fantasy relevance. For that reason, he’s on the Stay Away list in week 9.
Tight Ends
Play:
O.J. Howard (@ Carolina)
Another TE1 after 8 weeks, Howard enters week 9 as TE6, coming off a 4 catch, 68 yard, 1 TD performance against the Bengals. Howard seeks to benefit from the switch back to Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB. In the 3 games that Fitzpatrick both started and finished this year, Howard caught 11 passes for 222 yards and a TD, averaging 9 standard fantasy PPG. The Panthers have conceded more fantasy points to TE’s than any other team this year, setting Howard up very nicely in week 9.
David Njoku (vs. Kansas City)
Just outside TE1 territory, we find David Njoku of the Cleveland Browns. Prior to last week against the Steelers, Njoku had his best 3 games of the season, averaging 9.3 standard fantasy PPG. The TE position is thin this year, which is why we aren’t overly concerned about his 0-point dud in week 8. If there were a bevy of startable TE’s, we might say differently. But Njoku and Mayfield still have great chemistry. Coming into week 9, they’ll have a new HC and a new OC, and Njoku is set up nicely against a defense that ranks 26th in the league against fantasy TE’s.
Stay Away:
Vance McDonald (@ Baltimore)
McDonald has really struggled these last few weeks, especially for standard scoring leagues. In standard scoring, McDonald has posted just 10 points over his last 3 games. Over that same stretch, Antonio Brown has posted his 3 best fantasy performances of the season. It almost seems the two cannot co-exist successfully. If we had to guess which of these two will continue to pile on the elite fantasy performances, we’d all say Antonio Brown. For that reason along with his recent lack of success, McDonald should be on the bench against a tough Ravens defense in week 9.
Trey Burton (@ Buffalo)
Trey Burton is TE7 through the first 8 weeks, but over the last 2 weeks, he had his best fantasy performance of the season and then immediately followed it up by tying his worst. He’s had some slight consistency issues all year, and will now face the Buffalo Bills, who just held Rob Gronkowski to 4 fantasy points. His inconsistency combined with a tough matchup lands him on the Stay Away list.
Jordan Reed (vs. Atlanta)
I feel like a broken record, but I really am shocked that Jordan Reed is still healthy. But that aside, he hasn’t been producing like he once was able to. He has 4 straight games of less than 5 standard fantasy points and just doesn’t seem to have the connection with Alex Smith that he once had with Kirk Cousins. Until he begins to produce at a higher level, I’d leave him on the bench or even consider dropping him.