Play/Stay Away - Week 10
As bye weeks continue to hurt fantasy football owners, finding players to plug into your lineups gets increasingly difficult. This week, us fantasy football owners need to replace guys like Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins, Phillip Lindsay, Royce Freeman, Lamar Miller, Dalvin Cook, Latavius Murray, Emmanuel Sanders, DeAndre Hopkins, Demaryius Thomas, Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Kyle Rudolph. That's a long list of matchup proof fantasy starters. Check out the Play/Stay Away week 10 edition to see who should and shouldn't be plugged into your lineups!
Quarterbacks
Play:
Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs. Washington)
If anyone could provide me some insight as to why Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t owned in 100% of leagues, that would be great, because there’s no logic to it. If you scratch the Bears game from his 2018 record, Ryan Fitzpatrick is averaging 30.2 fantasy PPG, including an 18-point performance against Cincinnati, when he only played half the game. His upcoming matchup, the Redskins, rank bottom-10 in the league against fantasy QB’s. Consistent production combined with a favorable matchup makes Fitzmagic a must-start QB in week 10.
Russell Wilson (@ L.A. Rams)
Russell Wilson hasn’t thrown for 250 yards in any of his last 4 games, but he has thrown 11 TD’s, thrown only 2 INT’s, and averaged 20 fantasy PPG. He also posted his season high in rushing yards last week against the Chargers. A Russell Wilson that’s willing to run certainly maintains a higher floor than one who isn’t, so that’s definitely a positive. Against the Rams this week, the Seahawks will likely be forced to play from behind and attack through the air, setting Wilson up nicely for his 5th consecutive 19+ fantasy point week.
Philip Rivers (@ Oakland)
There is only one QB in the NFL that has thrown multiple TD passes every week of this season, and his name is Philip Rivers. Coming in at QB10 averaging 20.1 fantasy PPG through 9 weeks, Rivers has a very favorable matchup ahead of him against the Oakland Raiders, who were just shredded for 262 yards and 3 TD’s by rookie QB Nick Mullens. Just like Ryan Fitzpatrick’s situation in week 10, consistent production combined with a favorable matchup makes Rivers a must-start, high-end QB1.
Stay Away:
Jared Goff (vs. Seattle)
It’s never an easy call to place a top-3 player at his position on the Stay Away list, but it’s Goff’s matchup that lands him on the list in week 10. Seattle is allowing an average of just 12.9 fantasy PPG to opposing QB’s, the lowest number in the league. They held Goff to just 13 fantasy points back in week 5, and haven’t allowed a QB to go over 17 points since Case Keenum in week 1. With Todd Gurley in the backfield, the Rams surely aren’t afraid to rely on the run game.
Matthew Stafford (@ Chicago)
Stafford was by all accounts abused by the Vikings defense last week. He was sacked 10 times, and under pressure so consistently that he never had enough time to let his receivers get through their routes. He threw for just 199 yards, 0 TD’s, 1 fumble, and 5 fantasy points. The Lions will face the Bears next week, a top-10 defense against fantasy QB’s and a defense with a ferocious pass-rush headed by Khalil Mack. A tough matchup and an offense fresh off losing their leading WR lands Stafford on the Stay Away list for week 10.
Mitchell Trubisky (vs. Detroit)
In weeks 4-8, Trubisky was averaging 30.25 fantasy PPG. In week 9, he stunned his fantasy owners with a 135-yard, 1 TD, 7 fantasy point performance against the Bills. In fact, he’s averaging just 9.5 fantasy PPG in the other 4 weeks of this season. The Lions have been above average against opposing QB’s, including holding Tom Brady and Kirk Cousins to 7 and 6 fantasy points, respectively. Trubisky is far more likely to trend toward 9.5 fantasy PPG than he is to 30.25, and for that reason, he’s on the Stay Away list.
Running Backs
Play:
Jordan Howard (vs. Detroit)
After scoring just 1 TD in the first 5 games of the season, Howard has scored 4 TD’s in his last 3 games. Volume has not been the issue for Howard, as he’s registered an average of 15.75 carries per game so far this year. The Lions are allowing an average of over 5 yards per carry to opposing RB’s this year. Howard’s volume of touches, Detroit’s weak run defense, and Howard’s consistent work near the goal line make him a safe fantasy play in week 10.
Dion Lewis (vs. New England)
After a 16-point week 1 performance, Lewis’ fantasy owners were surely happy with their draft pick. Over the next 5 games, Lewis totaled just 15 fantasy points. He has now followed that weak stretch up with a 15 and 18-point fantasy performance these last 2 weeks. There is a clear and consistent correlation between the number of touches Lewis gets in a game and his fantasy performance. It’s the difference between a player who is barely worth rostering and an RB2. Tennessee looks committed to involving him in the offense, which sets him up nicely to produce as a fantasy starter.
Marlon Mack (vs. Jacksonville)
I feel as though there’s not much I need to say to argue that Mack is a must-start player with high-end RB1 potential. In week 7, Mack finished as RB2 behind only Kareem Hunt and in week 8, he finished as RB3 behind only James Conner and Todd Gurley. Jacksonville’s defense is not the same beast it once was, and they’ve allowed an average 107.5 rushing yards over their last 4 games, as well as 3 rushing TD’s over that stretch. Mack is starting to emerge as a workhorse in the Indianapolis backfield, making him a reliable RB1.
Stay Away:
Adrian Peterson (@ Tampa Bay)
Despite Adrian Peterson looking totally revitalized in 2018, his fantasy performances have become horribly inconsistent. He has 3 games where he totaled 68 fantasy points and in his other 5, he has a total of just 28. He’s become the league’s worst victim of game script, being pretty much useless to the Redskins when they’re behind in the second half. Tampa Bay has been one of the league’s higher scoring offenses through 9 weeks this year, which could very well lead to a lot of snaps for Chris Thompson and Kapri Bibbs in the second half as they’re far more effective in the passing game than Peterson. Projected unfavorable game script makes Peterson a risky play in week 10, and lands him on the Stay Away list.
Kerryon Johnson (@ Chicago)
The Chicago Bears have only allowed more than 60 rushing yards twice so far this season and have yet to allow a rushing TD to a RB, which does not bode well for Kerryon Johnson in week 10. After a breakout game with 158 rushing yards against Miami in week 7, Johnson has just 135 total yards from scrimmage over the last 2 games. Johnson still presents with good fantasy upside going forward this season, but a stretch of games against some of the league’s best defenses surely has fantasy owners down on him. Hold on to Kerryon, but let him ride the bench this week.
LeSean McCoy (@ N.Y. Jets)
With an average of just 5 fantasy PPG and 16 fewer touches, Chris Ivory actually has more fantasy points so far in 2018 than LeSean McCoy. Shady has yet to break 90 rushing yards, has broken 30 receiving yards only once, and has scored 0 TD’s after 9 weeks. Buffalo’s abysmal offense, averaging a league-worst 10.7 PPG this year, has seriously capped McCoy’s fantasy potential and at 4.4 fantasy PPG, he’s barely even worth rostering.
Wide Receivers
Play:
Mike Evans (vs. Washington)
Evans finished week 9 with just 1 catch for 16 yards, which surely has fantasy owners down on him. What’s worth noting is that he still had 10 targets. Including the 2 games where he only played one half, Evans is averaging 13.3 standard fantasy PPG this year when Fitzpatrick plays. He’s still WR10 in standard scoring leagues, and has a favorable matchup this week against Washington. The Redskins have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to opposing WR’s this year and the sixth-most since week 6. Evans has the potential for a high-end WR1 finish in week 10.
Tyler Boyd (vs. New Orleans)
Just 9 fantasy points behind A.J. Green after 9 weeks, Tyler Boyd has been enjoying a great 3rd year breakout season. He has topped 6 catches five times, 90 receiving yards four times, and has scored 5 TD’s. A.J. Green has already been ruled out for Sunday’s game against New Orleans, vaulting Tyler Boyd from WR2 to WR1. The Saints have allowed more fantasy points to opposing WR’s than any other team this year, setting the Bengals and specifically Tyler Boyd up nicely in week 10.
Jarvis Landry (vs. Atlanta)
Landry has 14 catches over the last 2 weeks, but has totaled just 89 receiving yards and has failed to find the endzone. However, he is in a nice position to bounce back with a week 10 contest against Atlanta. The Falcons have allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing WR’s so far this year. They’re also averaging the 8th most PPG, forcing teams to often air it out to keep up. Expect a busy day from Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland pass catchers.
Stay Away:
Kenny Golladay (@ Chicago)
Golladay got off to a hot start to 2018, averaging 12 standard fantasy PPG through the first 3 weeks. Since then, he has broken double digits just once and is averaging just 6 standard fantasy PPG. He hasn’t topped 3 catches or 50 yards in any of the last 3 weeks. Detroit’s passing game suffered last week as Stafford had no time to let plays develop, which could repeat itself this week against the Bears defense. On top of that, he had fewer yards and catches than Marvin Jones as well as fewer catches than Theo Riddick. Eight fantasy points over the past 3 weeks as well as possibly dropping to third in the pecking order post Golden Tate trade lands Kenny on the Stay Away list.
T.Y. Hilton (vs. Jacksonville)
Over the last two games, Hilton has just 5 catches for 59 yards. Two TD’s in week 7 salvaged what would have been an otherwise terrible fantasy performance, but for the most part, the volume just isn’t there for Hilton in the offense. He has gone over 50 yards in a game just twice this year, and it’s too risky to rely on him finding the endzone enough to turn his fantasy performance from WR4 to WR2.
Golden Tate (vs. Dallas)
Golden Tate had averaged just 5 fantasy PPG in his final 3 games with the Lions, so surely his fantasy owners are hoping the switch from Stafford to Wentz can revitalize his season a bit. Unfortunately for Tate, he won’t be at the top of the target count right away like he was with Detroit. He’ll now have to earn Wentz’s trust to compete for targets with Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor, and Zach Ertz. I’d rather be a week too late on starting Golden Tate than a week too early. For that reason, Tate finds himself on week 10’s Stay Away list.
Tight Ends
Play:
Jimmy Graham (vs. Miami)
Against New England in week 9, Graham posted his best fantasy performance of the year, and his 2nd double digit performance in 3 weeks. He has seen 6 or more targets in 6 of his last 7 games, so the volume is there for Graham. He’s a top-8 TE so far this year, and carries high-end TE1 potential into any week. The Dolphins rank bottom-10 in the league against opposing TE’s, setting Graham up nicely to push the boundaries of his fantasy ceiling.
Benjamin Watson (@ Cincinnati)
Like Graham, Watson also has 2 double digit fantasy performances in the last 3 weeks. He’s up to TE13 on the season after a slow start to the year, catching 2 TD’s over the past 3 weeks. The Bengals have given up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing TE’s on the year, including double digits each of the last 3 weeks and 5 times in 8 games. The Saints and Bengals are both top-10 in the league in PPG this year, setting Watson up nicely to take part in the shootout.
Stay Away:
Rob Gronkowski (@ Tennessee)
Gronk missed his second game in three weeks last week, and even when he’s healthy, he hasn’t been very effective. He has posted just one double digit fantasy performance, and that was way back in week 1. His usage has been inconsistent and he has the potential to leave any game due to an injury, making him a risky play. It’s hard to say given how thin the TE position is this year, but leave Gronk out of your lineup in week 10, especially since the Titans have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing TE’s this year.
Jared Cook (vs. L.A. Chargers)
Jared Cook is TE6 so far this year, but that’s heavily reliant on 3 great games. Combining weeks 1, 4, and 8, he is averaging 18 standard fantasy PPG. In weeks 2, 3, 5, 6, and 9, he is averaging just 2.4 standard fantasy PPG. He has been the peak of inconsistency so far, and Oakland’s horrendous offense limit his fantasy potential.
Trey Burton (vs. Detroit)
Speaking of inconsistent TE’s, let’s move on to Chicago’s Trey Burton. He’s one of the more TD dependent players, averaging 11.2 standard fantasy PPG when he finds the endzone and just 2.3 standard fantasy PPG when he doesn’t. His usage in the passing game has been inconsistent, as he has 8 games with 4 or fewer catches and 1 game with 9. The inconsistency and the dependency on a TD makes Burton a risky play, and that’s why he’s on the week 10 Stay Away list.