Play/Stay Away - Week 11
As bye weeks continue to hurt fantasy football owners, finding players to plug into your lineups gets increasingly difficult. This week, us fantasy football owners need to replace guys like Baker Mayfield, Tom Brady, LeSean McCoy, Nick Chubb, Duke Johnson, Sony Michel, James White, Matt Breida, Jarvis Landry, Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, David Njoku, Rob Gronkowski, Chris Herndon, and George Kittle. That's a long list of matchup proof fantasy starters. Check out the Play/Stay Away week 11 edition to see who should and shouldn't be plugged into your lineups!
Quarterbacks
Play:
Deshaun Watson (@ Washington)
Over his last two games, Watson has thrown for over 450 yards and 7 TD’s, accumulating 0 turnovers. His ability to make plays with his feet certainly raises his fantasy ceiling, as he’s averaging 3 points per week on the ground, and even had 10 back in week 4. The Redskins rank 20th in the league against opposing fantasy QB’s. Watson is set up nicely to have a big week in week 11 in a favorable matchup, coming off two strong fantasy performances.
Eli Manning (vs. Tampa Bay)
Despite a season low in yardage on Monday night, Eli had his first 3-TD game of the 2018 season in a nailbiter against the 49ers. This week, the Giants face the Buccaneers, who have allowed more points to opposing fantasy QB’s than anybody else, an average of 23.6 PPG. The weapons in the Giants’ offense can make a big play at any moment, making Eli Manning a decent fill-in during a 6-team bye week.
Russell Wilson (@ Green Bay)
Over his past 5 games, Russell Wilson has thrown 14 TD’s and only 3 turnovers. Wilson also has posted his season high in rushing yards each of the last 2 weeks, adding an average of 6.5 fantasy points on the ground over that stretch. The TD’s and rushing yards more than make up for the fact that Wilson has yet to top 300 passing yards in a game. This Thursday night game against the Packers is a must-win for both sides, and Wilson thrives in those games.
Stay Away:
Mitchell Trubisky (vs. Minnesota)
Whether or not you believe he’s a good real QB, Trubisky has been great for fantasy purposes. However, he has probably his toughest matchup of the year this week against Minnesota. Over their last 4 games, the Vikings have allowed a combined 30 fantasy points, an average of just 7.5 per week, which included games against Matthew Stafford and Drew Brees. They have one of the league’s better pass rushes combined with pro bowl players at throughout the defense, and will really test the sophomore QB this week.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (@ N.Y. Giants)
Fitzmagic put up his fourth 400-yard game of the season last week, but the Bucs put up just 3 points on the game. Fitz turned the ball over 3 times, twice via interception and once via fumble. The Giants have allowed the 12th fewest fantasy PPG to opposing QB’s since week 5, including surrendering only 15 to Cam Newton and 10 to Drew Brees this year. The turnover woes land Fitzpatrick on the Stay Away list in week 11.
Blake Bortles (vs. Pittsburgh)
Bortles has averaged 19.5 fantasy PPG over the past 2 weeks, which should be just enough for some QB needy fantasy owners to plug him into the lineup. Bortles is still 27th in fantasy points among QB’s since week 6 and will now face the Steelers, who have allowed an average of 12 fantasy PPG to opposing QB’s over the last 3 weeks. If you’re asking yourself if you should start Bortles this week, look at the big picture of his career, not just the last couple games.
Running Backs
Play:
Aaron Jones (@ Seattle)
This past week, it seems HC Mike McCarthy finally realized the backfield weapon he has in Aaron Jones. Jones set his season high in touches against Miami with 18, taking 15 carries for 145 yards and 2 TD’s while adding 27 yards through the air. Seattle has been right under the league average in fantasy PPG allowed to opposing RB’s, and teams facing Aaron Rodgers have no choice but to respect the pass. Jamaal Williams won’t completely disappear from the offense, but he won’t rival Jones’ touches.
Lamar Miller (@ Washington)
Volume is far from the issue for Lamar Miller, who is averaging 15.6 carries per game so far this year. In two of his last three games, he has topped 100 yards and found the endzone. Washington has allowed an average of 20.7 fantasy PPG to opposing backfields over the last 3 weeks. Miller’s strong and consistent workload combined with a favorable matchup set him up nicely as a safe RB2 in week 11.
Chris Carson (vs. Green Bay)
The big question mark around starting Carson is the idea that Seattle is a backfield by committee, which is just not true. In the last 4 games that he played the full four quarters, Carson is averaging 22.5 carries and 95.5 rushing yards. In the game against the Chargers in week 9, he saw 8 carries and took them for 40 yards before he left the game, and it wasn’t even the second quarter yet. The volume is there for Carson as Seattle will continue to take a run-first approach to their offense. However, with his injury concerns, Mike Davis and Rashaad Penny are both respectable handcuffs for this RB1.
Stay Away:
Joe Mixon (@ Baltimore)
In week 10’s blowout loss to the Saints, Mixon was disappointing, seeing just 11 carries and 2 passes. He was able to accumulate just 85 yards from scrimmage and without finding the endzone, posted his second-lowest fantasy performance of the season. This week, Cincinnati faces the Ravens, who have allowed the least fantasy points to opposing RB’s this season. A tough matchup as well as coming off a bad performance lands Mixon on the week 11 Stay Away list.
Adrian Peterson (vs. Houston)
Peterson is one of the hardest calls to make in fantasy this year, with three games above 20 points and four games below 6 points. His fantasy performances are 100% game script dependent, and Houston ranks in the top-12 among defenses against opposing RB’s. Erratic performances and a tough matchup land AP on the Stay Away list in week 11.
T.J. Yeldon (vs. Pittsburgh)
With the return of Leonard Fournette, Yeldon is back to fantasy irrelevance in non-PPR leagues. He got just 8 touches in week 10 compared to Fournette’s 29. Fournette is once again the workhorse he was prior to his hamstring injury. On top of that, the Steelers are 6th in the league against opposing RB’s, so the lesser workload and a tough matchup land Yeldon on the Stay Away list.
Wide Receivers
Play:
Tyler Lockett (vs. Green Bay)
Lockett has been a TD machine this year, scoring 7 times in 9 games. He is one of just 16 WR’s to post at least 8 games of 10+ fantasy points. Since week 6, the Packers have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing WR’s, setting Lockett up nicely to continue his productive season coming off of a game where he led the Seahawks in targets.
Corey Davis (@ Indianapolis)
Davis has posted 2 games of 18+ fantasy points this year and has yet to top 6 in any of the other 7. However, the upside is there for Davis going forward. He has seen over 30% of the Titans’ targets this year, 42% of their air yards, and 34% of their redzone targets. He has seen 10 targets each of the last 2 weeks, and has been benefitting directly from Mariota’s improved play these last couple weeks. The volume is there for Davis to have a big week at any time, making him a good WR2/flex option this week against Indianapolis.
Larry Fitzgerald (vs. Oakland)
As a fantasy football player, there’s nothing that excites me this year as much as seeing “Oak” in the opponent box next to my players. Oakland ranks 24th in the league against opposing WR’s, setting Larry Legend up nicely in week 11. New OC Byron Leftwich has made it clear that he wants to involve Larry Fitzgerald more in the offense, as he has posted his highest catch totals since week 1 in each of the last 2 games. Increased workload for a HOF WR combined with a favorable matchup makes Larry a strong WR2 play in week 11.
Stay Away:
Mike Evans (@ N.Y. Giants)
Through 8 weeks this year, it looked like Mike Evans was a high-end WR1 with Fitzpatrick in at QB and a bench player with Winston in at QB. That script has flipped as Evans has caught just 4 passes for a combined 67 yards in his last 2 games, both with Fitzpatrick in at QB. In week 11, he’ll likely be shadowed by Janoris Jenkins and will be the focal point of a Giants defense that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing WR’s so far this year. He’s a great WR who could go off at any moment, but right now, the trust among fantasy owners is certainly wavering.
Tyler Boyd (@ Baltimore)
Boyd has been having a great third-year breakout campaign, currently ranking 14th among fantasy WR’s in standard fantasy points scored this year. However, over the last 5 weeks, he’s been pretty inconsistent. His point totals for his last 5 games, in order, go: 4, 18, 2, 19, 6. Baltimore has been solid defensively this year, allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing WR’s. Inconsistency and a tough matchup land Tyler Boyd on the week 11 Stay Away list.
Marvin Jones (vs. Carolina)
After week 8, Marvin Jones was coming off of a 7/117/2 game and the Lions had just traded Golden Tate. The stars were aligning for Marvin Jones to get back to producing at the level he did last year, when he finished the year as WR5. However, Detroit’s atrocious offensive line gives Matthew Stafford no time to let plays develop, and in turn hurts his WR’s production. Without the time to get down the field, Jones’ fantasy ceiling is very capped, and lands him on the Stay Away list.
Tight Ends
Play:
O.J. Howard (@ N.Y. Giants)
O.J. Howard has been playing exactly like you’d expect a 19th overall pick TE to play in 2018. He has scored 4 TD’s in his last 5 games while racking up over 50 receiving yards in 4 of them. Despite allowing the 9th fewest fantasy points to the position this year, the Giants have a history of struggling against TE’s, and just allowed George Kittle to go for 9 catches and 83 yards on Monday night. O.J. Howard is a must-start going forward assuming he’s healthy.
Vance McDonald (@ Jacksonville)
Vance McDonald has been the clear TE1 since week 6, taking a 21-14 lead in targets over Jesse James in that stretch. Last week, McDonald caught 4 passes for 44 yards and a TD, his first score since week 3. Jacksonville has allowed the seventh-most points to fantasy TE’s this year, and were just torched by Eric Ebron for 2 TD’s through the air and 1 on the ground, as well as a TD to third-string TE Mo Alie-Cox. They’re clearly vulnerable to the position and Pittsburgh is looking for revenge in this AFC Divisional Round rematch.
Jeff Heuerman (@ L.A. Chargers)
Heuerman, in the first game without Demaryius Thomas, seemed to be the biggest benefactor of Thomas’ departure. He caught 10 passes for 83 yards and 1 TD, setting season highs for himself in both catches and receiving yards. He has also now scored in 2 straight games, so he clearly has the trust of Case Keenum. The L.A. defense has been nothing special against TE’s, surrendering an average right around the league average to the position. Heuerman is a good start at a weak position in week 11.
Stay Away:
Trey Burton (vs. Minnesota)
Despite coming into week 11 as TE7 on the year, Burton has caught just 9 passes for 86 yards over the past 3 games. His workload in the offense is erratic, and Minnesota hasn’t proven to be vulnerable enough against opposing TE’s to counter that. The Bears have plenty of weapons and Burton is not someone they are going to force the ball to. Erratic performances from an inconsistent workload land Burton on week 11’s Stay Away list.
Jared Cook (@ Arizona)
Speaking of erratic performances, let’s move on to Jared Cook. Despite entering the week as TE6 on the year right ahead of Trey Burton, Cook has also been a terribly inconsistent and unreliable fantasy option. After posting a 23-point performance in week 4 against the Browns, Cook has totaled 23 fantasy points in the 5 games since then. Arizona has been solid defending TE’s this year, allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the position. In a standard 10-team league, there isn’t a Raiders player who can be trusted as a starter right now.
Benjamin Watson (vs. Philadelphia)
Benjamin Watson’s fantasy football card should have the words “TD Dependent” stamped on it in big bold letters. Over the past 6 weeks, he has scored a TD in 2 games. In those 2 games, he has posted fantasy performances of 10 and 12 points. In the 4 that he did not score a TD, he has totaled just 5 fantasy points, which include two goose eggs. Watson isn’t heavily involved in the offense enough to be able to depend on a TD every week, landing him on the Stay Away list.