Play/Stay Away - Week 12
It’s amazing the impact that two teams can have on the fantasy football world. In a much deserved bye after what may have been the greatest regular season football game in league history, fantasy owners are now without any Chiefs or Rams players. Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, Todd Gurley, Kareem Hunt, Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce are all out of rosters this week. I don’t think any other two teams can combine for that many fantasy studs, so check out the Play/Stay Away for week 12 to see who you should and who you shouldn’t plug into your lineup as fillers with the playoffs just over the horizon.
Also, due to the increased number of Thursday games this week and 6 players on this week’s lists in those Thursday games, we’re posting this first thing Wednesday morning to give you plenty of time to prepare!
Quarterbacks
Play:
Lamar Jackson (vs. Oakland)
Considered by many to be the waiver wire add of the week, Lamar Jackson is the first name on the week 12 Play list. In his first career start last week, Jackson broke the record for most rushing attempts by a QB in the Super Bowl era with 27. He took those carries for 117 yards while adding 150 yards through the air. This rushing volume gives Jackson a high floor without even considering his passing numbers, and his ceiling skyrockets this week facing a Raiders defense that has allowed an average of 131 yards on the ground in each game this year.
Eli Manning (@ Philadelphia)
Right when everyone, including Giants fans, were ready to give up on Eli and say he doesn’t have what it takes anymore, he comes out and throws for 5 TD’s and 419 yards with 0 turnovers over the past 2 games. In week 11, Manning threw only one incompletion and a season high 12.8 yards per attempt. The Philly secondary has been decimated by injury, which should give Eli plenty of chances to find Odell, Shepard, and Engram downfield.
Jameis Winston (vs. San Francisco)
Winston is once again the Bucs starter, and the merry-go-round continues in Tampa Bay. Winston came in after the half last Sunday and went 12/16 for 199 yards and led 3 straight scoring drives against the Giants. The Bucs have plenty of offensive weapons, and whether they’re winning or not, the offensive volume is there. San Francisco has allowed 21 TD passes and has only notched 2 interceptions. Winston is a safe play this week in Tampa Bay’s pass-first offense.
Stay Away:
Aaron Rodgers (@ Minnesota)
I didn’t think there’d come a day when I recommended leaving Aaron Rodgers on the bench, but here we are. Over the last 5 weeks, the Vikings have allowed an average of just 8.8 fantasy PPG to opposing QB’s, and that stretch included matchups against Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, and Mitchell Trubisky. The Packers have been giving the ball more and more to Aaron Jones (rightfully so), thus taking the ball out of Rodgers’ hands just that much more. A tough matchup and increased run tendencies land Rodgers on my week 12 Stay Away list.
Kirk Cousins (vs. Green Bay)
Kirk Cousins, hoped to be the franchise guy by all of Minnesota, has shown as many signs of not being so than he has shown signs of being just that. Over his last 6 games, Cousins has thrown 9 TD’s and 5 interceptions while losing 3 fumbles. In that stretch, he is averaging just 14.8 fantasy PPG. Green Bay’s defense has not been making anything easy for opposing QB’s, as only Jared Goff has scored more than 18 fantasy points against them since week 4. A tough matchup combined with turnover tendencies land Cousins on the Stay Away list for week 12.
Matthew Stafford (vs. Chicago)
Stafford was considered a QB sleeper back in fantasy drafts this year. He is averaging just 14.5 fantasy PPG this year and has broken 20 points only twice. The trade of his number one target certainly doesn’t help, but the reason Stafford is on the Stay Away list is the matchup. The Bears have allowed just 15.1 fantasy PPG this year, and haven’t allowed a QB to go over 20 points since Tom Brady back in week 7. They’re the best in the league at forcing turnovers, and for that reason, Stafford is on the Stay Away list during this Thanksgiving Day game.
Running Backs
Play:
Gus Edwards (vs. Oakland)
To those of you who drafted Alex Collins and have been frustrated by the lack of production this year, I hope you are able to pick up Gus Edwards. Edwards broke out in week 11, taking 17 carries for 115 yards and 1 TD. Collins took just 7 carries for a mere 18 yards in this game, being completely outshined by the undrafted rookie. Oakland ranks 25th against fantasy RB’s this year, and have allowed 110+ rushing yards in all but 2 games. Edwards is a safe play this week given his new increased workload and a very favorable matchup.
Duke Johnson (@ Cincinnati)
After scoring just 28 fantasy points through the first 8 weeks of the season, Duke Johnson has scored 29 over the last two weeks. Over these last two games, he has been targeted on 39.4% of his routes, the highest figure on the team. New HC Gregg Williams and OC Freddie Kitchens have shown a clear desire to involve him in the offense far more than Hue Jackson had this year, and fantasy owners are rejoicing. The Bengals have allowed more fantasy points to RB’s than any other team this year, setting Johnson up nicely in week 12.
Matt Breida (@ Tampa Bay)
Breida had been on the 49ers injury report for multiple weeks, accumulating just 7 fantasy points during weeks 7-9. He surely was full strength in week 10’s Monday night game against the Giants, racking up 25 fantasy points on 132 total yards and 2 TD’s. He has now had a bye week to heal and rest up, and will now face a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed 26 or more fantasy points to opposing RB’s in 3 of their last 4 games. Breida is a high-end RB2 in this favorable week 12 matchup.
Stay Away:
Adrian Peterson (@ Dallas)
In week 11, Peterson took 16 carries for 51 yards, a poor 3.2 yards per carry. He was able to salvage an otherwise rough performance by finding the endzone on two short carries, which isn’t something that is guaranteed on a weekly basis. Dallas has been solid against opposing RB’s this year, allowing the 7th fewest fantasy PPG to the position. Over the last two weeks, they’ve held opposing RB’s to a combined 17 points. Let AP’s unpredictable fantasy performance come through on your bench on Thanksgiving Day.
Tevin Coleman (@ New Orleans)
Tevin Coleman hasn’t shined since taking the RB1 role in week 2 like his fantasy owners were surely hoping he would. He has posted just 4 double digit fantasy performances in 9 games as the starter. It certainly doesn’t help that Ito Smith has vultured his share of short yardage TD’s, but Coleman’s yardage totals haven’t helped, as he’s gone over 60 rushing yards just twice. The Saints are allowing just 12.5 fantasy PPG to opposing RB’s this year, the third-lowest figure in the league. Let Coleman ride the bench in a game against a tough opponent where the Falcons will likely be playing from behind and forced to throw.
Lamar Miller (vs. Tennessee)
Lamar Miller has racked up double digit fantasy performances in 3 of his last 4 games, after not doing so since week 1. Miller will have his work cut out for him though in this matchup with the Titans, who have allowed the fifth-fewest points to opposing RB’s this year. They’ve conceded just 5 rushing TD’s through 10 games, and Miller has only scored 2 all year. He’s still not very consistent, and that combined with his lack of scoring lands him on the Stay Away list in this tough matchup.
Wide Receivers
Play:
Allen Robinson (@ Detroit)
Robinson saw a significant drop-off from week 10 to week 11, which was to be expected as he saw plenty of attention from Xavier Rhodes. But it was just a mere 2 weeks ago that he burned the Detroit secondary for 6 catches, 133 yards, and 2 TD’s. The Bears have enough weapons for defenses to struggle to focus on just one guy, so Allen Robinson ranks, at the worst, as a solid flex play on Thanksgiving Day.
Larry Fitzgerald (@ L.A. Chargers)
Larry salvaged a bad performance with a TD on each of his 2 catches in week 11, making it his third straight game with double digit fantasy points, and 4 TD’s in his last 4 games. The switch to Byron Leftwich at OC has made it clear that he wants Fitz more involved in the offense, as he’s caught 16 passes in 3 games with Leftwich at OC compared just 26 in 7 games with Mike McCoy. Fitz’s increased offensive usage lands him on the Play list against a Chargers defense that has struggled against the slot this year.
Tre’Quan Smith (vs. Atlanta)
If you watched the Saints blow the Eagles out of the water on Sunday afternoon, then you saw Tre’Quan Smith explode for 10 catches, 157 yards, and 1 TD. He has emerged as a solid WR2 option in the Saints offense, even leading the team in targets and catches last week. The Falcons rank 26th against opposing fantasy WR’s, giving Smith a nice matchup in a high-powered offense, landing him on the Play list in week 12.
Stay Away:
Emmanuel Sanders (vs. Pittsburgh)
Sanders started the year off strong, and still ranks as WR12 in fantasy as a result of a hot start to the 2018 campaign. However, over the last 3 weeks, he has combined for just 14 fantasy points. This could be the result of a run-first offense or of opposing defenses not viewing Courtland Sutton as a viable threat yet, thus locking in on Sanders. His numbers have dropped off since Demaryius Thomas was traded, and until we see some return to his early season production, Sanders should be left on the bench. Especially against a Steelers defense that has allowed an average of just 8.75 combined fantasy PPG to all opposing WR’s over the past 4 weeks.
Keenan Allen (vs. Arizona)
For several weeks, I had Keenan Allen on the Stay Away list because he wasn’t getting in the endzone. He has now scored in consecutive weeks, and posted 4 double digit fantasy performances over the last 5 games. However, the sole reason he makes the week 12 Stay Away list is a 7x Pro Bowler and 3x First-Team All Pro cornerback named Patrick Peterson. P2 will be shadowing the Chargers WR. He has allowed just 2 TD’s all year and has otherwise been a lockdown guy. Bench Keenan Allen against this elite cornerback.
T.Y. Hilton (vs. Miami)
Hilton had a monster game in week 11, catching 9 passes for 155 yards and 2 TD’s. It was the fourth game of his career with 150+ receiving yards and 2 TD’s, the most in the NFL since 2012. However, the reason he lands on the week 12 Stay Away list, is the inconsistency. In weeks 8 and 10, Hilton combined for 4 catches and 111 yards and 0 TD’s, a measly 10 fantasy points. Until I see some more dependability out of T.Y. Hilton, he’ll land on the Stay Away list. On top of the inconsistency, he has his work cut out for him against Miami CB Xavien Howard this week.
Tight Ends
Play:
Vance McDonald (@ Denver)
McDonald continues to widen the gap between himself and Jesse James in Pittsburgh’s TE1 role, catching 3 passes for 27 yards and 1 TD against Jacksonville while James failed to register a single target. McDonald has now found the endzone in back-to-back weeks, something that isn’t found a lot at the TE position in 2018. He ranks 5th among TE’s in fantasy points over the last 2 weeks, and now gets a favorable matchup against Denver. The Broncos currently rank 26th against opposing TE’s, allowing double digit fantasy performances to the position 2 of the last 3 weeks, as well as a TD to the position each of the last 3 weeks. Get Vance in your lineup for week 12.
Cameron Brate (vs. San Francisco)
Hurting many fantasy owners, O.J. Howard was moved to the IR this week. He’ll be replaced by Cameron Brate, and just in time for Winston to reclaim the starting job. Let’s not forget that Cameron Brate was TE8 last year, just 15 fantasy points outside of the top-5. The 49ers aren’t terrible, but are certainly vulnerable to the position, as they began the year allowing a TD to the position in 4 straight games and allowing 100+ receiving yards to opposing TE’s in two different games. Brate and Winston have the chemistry to produce, making Brate a must-roster and a low-end TE1 this week.
David Njoku (@ Cincinnati)
Njoku has had an up and down year, only posting double digit fantasy points in games that he found the endzone, but the volume is there for Njoku. He is second only to Jarvis Landry in routes run over Cleveland’s last 2 games. He was limited by injury but the bye week should have helped to move over that hump. Over the last 5 games, the Bengals have allowed an average of 6.6 catches for 80.6 yards to the TE position, setting Njoku up favorably for big production in this divisional matchup.
Stay Away:
Jack Doyle (vs. Miami)
A popular opinion was that once he returned from injury, Doyle and Ebron would put up even stat lines. Over the last 2 weeks, Doyle has caught a combined 7 catches for 79 yards and hasn’t found the endzone, while Ebron has caught 3 passes for 69 yards and scored 3 TD’s, despite no catches in week 11. Ebron is still the primary TE option in this offense, and Doyle shouldn’t be started until that gap is narrowed.
Rob Gronkowski (@ N.Y. Jets)
Those who used a late second/early third round pick on Rob Gronkowski are understandably frustrated that he hasn’t been the dominant force this year that he once was. He hasn’t found the endzone since week 1, and has only topped 50 receiving yards in 4 of the 7 games he has played in so far. The Jets have been great against TE’s this year, allowing an average of just 4.7 fantasy PPG to the position, the fifth lowest figure in the league. Even a healthy Gronk should be left on the bench this week.
Austin Hooper (@ New Orleans)
Hooper’s inconsistent season currently ranking as the eighth best TE this year shows you just how thin the position really is. After catching 10 passes for 56 yards and a TD in week 10, Hooper caught just 4 passes for 27 yards in week 11. He has a tough matchup this week, as the Saints have allowed just 4 fantasy PPG to opposing TE’s, the second lowest in the league. They have conceded just 1 TD to a TE all year, and have allowed over 40 receiving yards to the position just twice. Let Hooper ride the bench on Thanksgiving Day.