Play/Stay Away - Week 13
There is a positive and a negative to the bye weeks being over. On the bright side, you have all your players back! No more plugging in hail mary’s and adding guys with 2 good games off their belt from the waiver wire and plugging them right into your lineup. On the down side…decisions, decisions, decisions. With everybody removed from their bye weeks, you might have more depth than you know what to do with, and need to decide which two RB’s to start when you have 3 starting RB’s on your roster. Well, that’s what I’m here for. I’m here to provide relevant statistics and analysis on previous and upcoming matchups to help you make the right decisions, especially here in the last week of the fantasy regular season. Let’s get into it!
Quarterbacks
Play:
Andrew Luck (@ Jacksonville)
Luck might be the start of the week for week 13. There was a lot of speculation prior to his return from injury as far as whether or not he could return to the caliber of QB he once was. He has certainly put any doubters to rest as the year has gone on, as he has thrown 3+ TD passes every game since week 4, which ties the second-longest single-season streak in league history. The Indy o-line has been great this year, giving Luck ample time to sit in the pocket and run through his progressions. Jacksonville has allowed opposing QB’s to score 20+ fantasy points in 5 of their last 6 games. Luck has a great chance to finish as the #1 QB this week.
Dak Prescott (vs. New Orleans)
The addition of Amari Cooper has completely changed the Dallas offense, and he’s looking like he’s worth every bit of that first-round pick. Prescott has completed at least 67.7% of his passes since Cooper’s arrival in week 9, while throwing 5 TD’s and running for 3. He is averaging 20.3 fantasy PPG over his last 6, and will face a New Orleans defense that has allowed an average of 20.8 PPG to opposing QB’s, including 20+ in 4 of their last 6 games. With Ezekiel Elliott still forcing opposing defenses to respect the run, things have opened up for Prescott, setting him up as a low-end QB1 in week 13’s TNF matchup.
Lamar Jackson (@ Atlanta)
Lamar Jackson will be starting for the Ravens once again in week 13, and he’ll look to build on his improving fantasy performances against a Falcons defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points through the air to opposing QB’s as well as 205 yards and 3 TD’s on the ground. Jackson is averaging 17.5 fantasy PPG as a starter this year, heavily due to his 190 yards and 1 rushing TD over just 2 games. His willingness and ability to run gives him a high floor as a fantasy option, and he is near guaranteed to rise above that floor in this favorable week 13 matchup with Atlanta.
Stay Away:
Aaron Rodgers (vs. Arizona)
Last week, I put Aaron Rodgers on the Stay Away list for the first time. He was a name at the beginning of the year that I didn’t think would ever make the list. But, he just doesn’t look like the same Aaron Rodgers anymore. In a divisional, seemingly must-win game against the Vikings last week, Rodgers threw for just 198 yards and 1 TD. He has a surprisingly tough matchup this week, as Arizona has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing QB’s. Only Philip Rivers has hit 20 points against them this year, as they held Mitchell Trubisky to 4 and Russell Wilson to 8. If you have the depth, let Rodgers ride the bench this week.
Tom Brady (vs. Minnesota)
Speaking of QB’s who I never thought would make this list, let’s talk about the GOAT for a minute. Brady has failed to throw a TD pass in 2 of his last 4 games and is averaging just 17 fantasy PPG after 12 weeks, including an average of just 14 PPG over his last 4 games. Sony Michel has given the Patriots the best run game that they’ve had in years, and they’ll also face the Minnesota defense this week, who have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing QB’s. They haven’t allowed a QB to top 14 fantasy points since Carson Wentz in week 5. Let Brady sit this one out.
Carson Wentz (vs. Washington)
The Eagles find themselves still chasing a second-consecutive division title. Not because of the caliber of their play, but because of the atrocious NFC East. Part of their lack of success stems from lackluster QB play. Over the last 2 weeks, in favorable QB matchups against the Saints and Giants, Wentz threw just 1 TD and 3 INT’s for a total of 13 fantasy points. The Eagles looked committed last week to giving Josh Adams a solid RB1 workload, and that should continue this week against Washington. The Redskins have allowed just 17.7 fantasy PPG to opposing QB’s this year, giving Wentz a tough matchup this week.
Running Backs
Play:
James White (vs. Minnesota)
James White’s fantasy owners are reasonably frustrated with White’s performances during New England’s last 2 games, as he has accumulated just 10 standard fantasy points and only 16 PPR fantasy points. What is worth noting is that Tom Brady is still looking his way. Brady threw to White 5 times last week, and was unfortunately off target on all but one of them. This week’s game against Minnesota will likely be closer than either of their last 2 games, setting White up nicely to regain his crucial role in this offense.
Lamar Miller (vs. Cleveland)
Miller had his best game of the year last week, primarily due to a 97-yard TD run in the second quarter. Miller now has 100+ yards from scrimmage in 4 of his last 5 games, as well as 3 TD’s over that stretch. Cleveland ranks 25th in the league against opposing RB’s, allowing an average of 21.5 standard fantasy PPG to the position. Rank Miller as a high-end RB2 in week 13.
Gus Edwards (@ Atlanta)
Coming out of nowhere, Gus Edwards has now taken 40 carries for 233 yards (5.8 yards per carry) and 1 TD, totaling 30 fantasy points, in just 2 games. He has taken on a true RB1 workload and now gets a favorable matchup against the Falcons, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing RB’s. With Lamar Jackson at the helm, the Ravens will continue to utilize a run-first offense, vaulting Edwards into RB2 territory in a good matchup.
Stay Away:
Kenyan Drake (vs. Buffalo)
Drake had his highest standard fantasy point total of the season last week despite just 13 touches, 2 less than RB teammate Frank Gore. Drake made the most of his touches, averaging 4 yards per carry and getting in the endzone with both a rushing and a receiving TD. Drake had 96 yards but can’t be expected to find the endzone every game, let alone twice. As long as he’s being out-touched by Frank Gore, he’s a risky fantasy play.
Peyton Barber (vs. Carolina)
Barber has emerged as the clear RB1 in Tampa Bay, with double digit carries every week since week 6. He has 27 standard fantasy points over the last 2 weeks, but was facing favorable matchups. This week, the Bucs face the Panthers, who have allowed just 14.3 standard fantasy PPG to opposing RB’s. That includes allowing just 4 points to all Tampa Bay RB’s combined back in week 9. Barber can’t be expected to get in the endzone every week, and he makes the Stay Away list with a tough matchup in week 13.
Tevin Coleman (vs. Baltimore)
Coleman is averaging 9.7 fantasy PPG on the season, but just 6.3 PPG over the last 3 weeks. In his last 2 games, he has 16 carries for just 64 yards and only 44 receiving yards. He hasn’t become the workhorse back his fantasy owners were expecting him to be when Freeman was moved to the IR, and in week 13 he gets a tough matchup with the Baltimore defense. The Ravens have allowed the third-fewest points to RB’s so far this year, and only James Conner has hit the 20-point mark. Leave Coleman on the bench as you make your playoff push.
Wide Receivers
Play:
Larry Fitzgerald (@ Green Bay)
Larry Fitzgerald has enjoyed a bit of a revival since the switch at Offensive Coordinator to Byron Leftwich. Fitz has scored 4 times in 4 games with Leftwich as the OC, and has scored his highest, second-highest, and fourth-highest fantasy performances of the year. Green Bay has allowed the second-most fantasy PPG to opposing WR’s. Fitz’s increased involvement in the offense, scoring tendencies, and a favorable matchup land him on the week 13 Play list.
Adam Humphries (vs. Carolina)
In Tampa Bay’s last 4 games, Humphries has posted his three best fantasy performances of the year. He has found the endzone 4 times in the last 4 games, and he is one of just 17 WR’s with 5+ games of 10+ fantasy points since week 6. He has now gone over 50 receiving yards in 5 consecutive games. Carolina is allowing an average of 30 fantasy PPG to opposing WR’s, setting Humphries up for a big game in a favorable matchup in week 13.
Josh Reynolds (@ Detroit)
In the 2 games that Josh Reynolds has filled in for an injured Cooper Kupp, he has caught 9 passes for 122 yards and 3 TD’s, a total of 30 standard fantasy points. Week 13 will mark the third time this year that Reynolds is filling in for Kupp, and he clearly gets the volume to produce as a high-end WR2 with Kupp out of the rotation. Detroit has allowed an average of 31 fantasy PPG to opposing WR’s over the last 3 weeks. The Rams possess one of the league’s great offenses, giving every player, including Reynolds, a high ceiling in week 13.
Stay Away:
Josh Gordon (vs. Minnesota)
Gordon has seen career revitalized a bit since being traded to the Patriots, including two 100-yard receiving games and three 10+ fantasy point performances. However, in week 13, he’ll likely be drawing a shadow from Xavier Rhodes on the outside and for that reason, he’s on the Stay Away list. The Vikings have allowed just 113.3 receiving yards per game to WR’s since week 6, the sixth-fewest in the league. They’ve allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing WR’s so far this year. In a very tough matchup, Gordon should be benched in week 13.
Calvin Ridley (vs. Baltimore)
Calvin Ridley was about 2 yards away from posting a 21-point fantasy performance on Thanksgiving Day prior to having the ball knocked out of his hands on the goal line. While there is usually plenty of fantasy value in Atlanta’s passing attack, a matchup against Baltimore certainly lowers the ceiling. The Ravens have allowed just one WR group to combine for 20 points since week 6. Leave any Falcon who isn’t named Julio Jones out of your week 13 lineup.
Allen Robinson (@N.Y. Giants)
After a monster week 10 performance against Detroit, Allen Robinson has combined for just 6 fantasy points on 5 catches over the last 2 weeks. As of Wednesday night, Mitchell Trubisky is trending towards missing another game. It was clear on Thanksgiving Day that with Chase Daniel in at QB, the Bears were going to take a more conservative offensive approach and stick with short passes to WR’s in space, which benefits players like Taylor Gabriel and Tarik Cohen far more than Allen Robinson. That, combined with a matchup against a Giants defense allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing WR’s lands A-Rob on the week 13 Stay Away list.
Tight Ends
Play:
Cameron Brate (vs. Carolina)
In his first game as the lone TE without O.J. Howard, Brate caught 3 passes for 26 yards and a TD on his way to 8 fantasy points. In week 13, Brate and the Bucs will face the Panthers, who have allowed more fantasy points to TE’s than any other team this year, including 9 TD’s in 11 games. A favorable matchup and a solid rapport with Jameis Winston land Brate on the week 13 Play list.
Gerald Everett (@ Detroit)
Like Josh Reynolds, Gerald Everett has also benefitted from Cooper Kupp’s injury. In L.A.’s last 2 games, Everett has 5 catches for only 64 yards but he has scored 3 TD’s, totaling 23 fantasy points. Due to the high-powered nature of the Rams’ offense, every player is capable of going for a big fantasy performance any week, including Gerald Everett.
Jonnu Smith (vs. N.Y. Jets)
The Titans were surely capped offensively when Delanie Walker was lost for the season during the first game of the year. However, over the last few weeks, Jonnu Smith has emerged as a viable TE1 option. Smith is averaging 8.75 fantasy PPG over the last 4 weeks, including a TD in 3 of those 4 games. The Jets had been solid against the TE this year, prior to giving up 50+ yards and a TD to Rob Gronkowski this past weekend. Look for the Titans to keep Jonnu involved in the offense going forward.
Stay Away:
Chris Herndon (@ Tennessee)
Chris Herndon has popped up on a lot of people’s radar in recent weeks, having caught 3+ passes for 30+ yards in 4 of his last 5 games, as well as a 3-game scoring streak from weeks 6-8. Herndon has emerged as a decent TE option this year, but makes the Stay Away list in week 13 due to matchup. The Titans are allowing an average of just 2.8 fantasy PPG to opposing TE’s, the lowest figure in the league. Leave Herndon on the bench this week.
Jimmy Graham (vs. Arizona)
Over the last 3 weeks, Jimmy Graham has combined for just 5 fantasy points on only 4 catches. Despite his talent level, there simply isn’t enough volume coming his way in this Packers offense for him to produce consistently as a viable TE option. On top of that, Arizona has allowed an average of just 5 fantasy PPG to TE’s this year, the fifth-lowest in the league. With all the WR’s and now Aaron Jones being a staple of the Green Bay offense, Graham doesn’t see enough targets to put him in your lineup.
Jordan Reed (@ Philadelphia)
Reed has seen his season brought back to life by Colt McCoy over the last 2 weeks. To the surprise of absolutely nobody, he enters week 13 on the injury report after scoring a combined 20 fantasy points over the last 2 weeks – the same total as the 6 games prior. With Jamison Crowder and Chris Thompson possibly returning to the lineup as well as a matchup with the defense allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy PPG to opposing TE’s, Reed is on this week’s Stay Away list.