Play/Stay Away - Week 14
The playoffs have arrived! At no point this season have the start/sit questions you ask yourself on a weekly basis been more important. Whether your team does a one-week winner advances or a two-week combined total, this is your chance to show your league mates that you're the team everyone needs to be on the lookout for. Let's jump in!
Quarterbacks
Play:
Josh Allen (vs. N.Y. Jets)
Allen is fantasy’s #1 QB over the last 2 weeks, largely due to his running ability. Allen had 15 points on the ground in week 12 and 13 in week 13. On top of that, he added 10 points through the air in week 12 and 15 in week 13. His running ability gives him a high fantasy floor. The Jets have allowed 17 or more fantasy points to opposing QB’s in 8 of their last 9 games, setting Allen up nicely for a QB1 finish.
Aaron Rodgers (vs. Atlanta)
There has been tension growing for a few years now between Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy. Well, McCarthy was shown the door after last Sunday’s loss. Rodgers will now face Atlanta in a newly-coached offense. Atlanta has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing QB’s, an average of 21.2 fantasy PPG. Rodgers should come out firing against this rough secondary
Russell Wilson (vs. Minnesota)
Many are afraid to trust Wilson this week against the Vikings, who have allowed just 12.1 fantasy PPG to opposing QB’s since week 9. However, Wilson is riding an eight game streak with at least 2 TD passes. In that stretch, Wilson has thrown 22 TD passes to just 2 INT’s. He’s smart with the football and crazy efficient, prime example being last week. Wilson threw just 17 passes total but threw 4 TD passes. Start Wilson this week.
Stay Away:
Tom Brady (@ Miami)
Despite an incredible career and a resume that makes a strong case for the greatest QB of all time, Brady is having a rough season fantasy wise. He hasn’t gone over 20 fantasy points in a game since week 7 against the Bears. The Dolphins have allowed just 16.5 standard fantasy PPG this year to opposing QB’s. The Patriots have favored their run game quite a bit this year, capping Brady’s fantasy ceiling. Keep him on the bench during your playoff game this week.
Carson Wentz (@ Dallas)
So far this year, only 4 QB’s have hit the 20-point mark against the Dallas Cowboys. The Dallas defense has allowed just 15.3 fantasy PPG to opposing QB’s, including just a combined 20 between Matt Ryan and Drew Brees in 2 of their last 3 games. Josh Adams has been busy out of the Philly backfield recently and Wentz has averaged just 13.25 PPG over the last 4 weeks. Let him ride the bench this week.
Baker Mayfield (vs. Carolina)
Over the last 7 weeks, Mayfield has thrown 15 TD’s, but he has also thrown 7 INT’s, which has offset a good deal of that fantasy value from the TD passes. The Panthers are currently riding a 4-game losing skid averaging just 21 PPG, so a run-heavy approach from Cleveland shouldn’t come as a surprise this week. Don’t trust Baker to get you to the championship.
Running Backs:
Play:
Justin Jackson (vs. Cincinnati)
Last week, Jackson scored 13 standard fantasy points on just 9 touches. He took 8 carries for 63 yards and a TD and 1 catch for 19 yards. It didn’t take long for him to show he’s the better RB option than Austin Ekeler while Melvin Gordon is out. This week, the Chargers face the Bengals, who have given up more points to opposing RB’s than any other team this year, setting Jackson up with RB2 potential in week 14.
Tarik Cohen (vs. L.A. Rams)
Cohen got 20 touches last week against the Giants and took them for 186 yards, 30 on the ground and 156 through the air. He has also out-touched Jordan Howard in the redzone over the last 4 weeks. He has caught 19 passes over the last 2 weeks and remains one of the key pieces of the Chicago offense regardless of who is in at QB. Trust Cohen to produce low-end RB1/high-end RB2 value this week against the Rams, who have conceded 21.75 standard fantasy PPG to opposing RB’s over the last 4 weeks.
Jeff Wilson Jr. (vs. Denver)
With Breida out of the game last week, Wilson Jr. took 23 touches for 61 yards on the ground and 73 yards through the air. Breida has already been ruled out for this week’s game against the Broncos, setting up Wilson for another heavy workload. Denver has given up an average of 17.7 standard fantasy PPG to opposing RB’s, including allowing the 10th most rushing yards so far this season.
Stay Away:
Gus Edwards (@ Kansas City)
Edwards ranks fourth in carries over the past 3 weeks with 61. He has taken those 61 carries for 315 yards and 1 TD, a total of 38 standard fantasy points. The downside this week, however, is the matchup. While the Chiefs have given up the third-most fantasy points to RB’s, the Ravens will more than likely be playing from behind in this one. Edwards has caught just 1 pass all year, so a catch-up game script does not favor his fantasy potential.
Sony Michel (@ Miami)
After a 145-yard, 1 TD, 20 fantasy point performance in week 12 against the Jets, Michel gained just 70 total yards in week 13 against Minnesota. The return of Rex Burkhead cut noticeably into Michel’s workload while James White’s role as the pass catching back went unscathed. The Miami defense is allowing just 15.75 standard fantasy PPG to RB’s over the past 4 weeks, so Michel and the uncertain future of his workload should be on the bench this week.
Chris Carson (vs. Minnesota)
Despite still being the clear RB1 in Seattle based on how the touches are divided up, Carson hasn’t produced lately. Over his last 3 games, he has 46 carries for 207 yards and 2 TD’s, an average of just 10.7 standard fantasy PPG. Minnesota has given up the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing RB’s this year. With the way Russell Wilson has been playing, Seattle surely won’t be afraid to put the ball in his hands. That combined with Rashaad Penny and Mike Davis both getting carries, Carson should be on the bench this week.
Wide Receivers
Play:
Tyler Lockett (vs. Minnesota)
Lockett is WR14 in standard fantasy scoring going into week 14, and his TD tendencies are up there with the best of them. Only Antonio Brown, Eric Ebron, Davante Adams, and Tyreek Hill have more receiving TD’s than Lockett, and he’s scored in all but 3 games this year. Minnesota has been good in coverage, but Lockett’s TD rate combined with the QB play of Russell Wilson make him a safe bet for 50 yards and a TD again this week.
Allen Robinson (vs. L.A. Rams)
Robinson received 9 targets last week, his highest since week 2. He has averaged between 15.8 and 22.2 yards per catch in 3 of his last 4 games, 2 of which came with Chase Daniel at QB. Robinson has even more downfield opportunity with Mitchell Trubisky in at QB, who is expected to return this week. Robinson has high-end WR2 potential this week in what could wind up being a shootout with the Rams.
Amari Cooper (vs. Philadelphia)
While the yardage and fantasy point totals varied drastically for Cooper over the last 2 weeks, Cooper has caught 8 passes in each game, doing so no 17 targets. The volume is there for Cooper to produce consistent WR1 fantasy value. The Eagles have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to WR’s this year. Cooper has seen 8+ targets and caught 5+ passes in 3 of his 4 games as a Dallas Cowboy. Lock Cooper in as a low-end WR1 in a high volume role against an injury-riddled secondary.
Stay Away:
T.Y. Hilton (@ Houston)
Last week, Hilton caught 8 passes for 77 yards in a scoreless loss to the Jaguars. Hilton has now gone over 77 receiving yards in each of his last 4 games. This week, the Colts travel to Houston for a divisional match with the Texans. Houston has been stingy against opposing fantasy WR’s, allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to the position so far this year. Hilton has only scored in 4 games this year, so a low TD rate combined with a tough matchup lands him on the Stay Away list in week 14.
Golden Tate (@ Dallas)
Tate found the endzone in week 13 for the first time since week 4 against the Cowboys when he did so twice. This week, Tate will be up against the Dallas defense that has come out of nowhere as one of the league’s better defenses this year. They’ve allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing WR’s this year, including holding the New Orleans WR’s to just 13 total fantasy points amongst them. Inconsistent success combined with a tough matchup land Tate on the Stay Away list.
Tight Ends
Play:
Vance McDonald (@ Oakland)
Over Pittsburgh’s last 6 games, McDonald has been pretty consistent. He has caught either 3 or 4 passes and gone for 25, 27, 27, 28, 44, and 47 yards. Oakland has been dreadful against TE’s this year, allowing an average of 10.8 standard fantasy PPG to the position – the highest in the league. They’ve allowed 7 TD’s to TE’s in their past 6 games, which sets McDonald up for a TE1 finish this week.
Stay Away:
Austin Hooper (@ Green Bay)
Hooper has been playing some of his best football since week 10, catching 24 passes for 158 yards and 2 TD’s over the last 4 weeks. However, he’ll have his work cut out for him this week against Green Bay, who have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to TE’s this year. They’ve allowed just 1 TD to the position all year and have allowed 3 or fewer catches in 7 of their 12 games this year. Atlanta’s had a disappointing year, and their inconsistent offense combined with a tough matchup for the position result in Hooper riding the bench.
Cameron Brate (vs. New Orleans)
Brate and Winston have yet to find the rapport that they had developed last year when Brate was a top-5 fantasy TE. But the main reason Brate makes the Stay Away list this week is the matchup. New Orleans has allowed the second-fewest points to the TE position this year. They’ve allowed just 1 TD to a TE all year and only once did they allow double-digits to the position. There is no reason to trust Brate against the Saints this year.