Play/Stay Away - Week 16
Week 16 is here, which means it’s championship week! If you’re playing for 1st place, congratulations to you! You’ve powered through what has been an injury-riddled, unpredictable 2018 season. Even if you’re not playing for a championship, there’s still a lot to play for. Wouldn’t it be great to tell your friends at the bottom of the barrel how much better your 5th place finish was than their 8th place finish?
Whether you’re playing for the jackpot, bragging rights, or even just to save face, check out the week 16 Play/Stay Away calls right here!
QB’s:
Play:
Dak Prescott (vs. Tampa Bay)
Prescott had his worst fantasy performance of the season last week against Indianapolis, throwing for just 206 yards and 1 INT. He’s in a great position for a bounce-back game against Tampa Bay this week, the 32nd ranked defense against fantasy QB’s, allowing 20.1 PPG this year to the position. Dak is just 2 weeks removed from a 42-completion game where he threw for 455 yards and 3 TD’s. With Amari Cooper out wide, Dak could go off at any moment.
Deshaun Watson (@ Philadelphia)
Watson hasn’t been quite as good as he was last year prior to the ACL injury, but he’s still having a great 2018 fantasy campaign while leading the Texans to the 3rd best record in the AFC, despite an 0-3 start. The Texans face Philadelphia this weekend, who currently rank 23rd in the league against fantasy QB’s. Their secondary has been ravaged by injuries and allowed Dak to throw for 450+ yards and 3 TD’s just 2 weeks ago. Lock Watson in as a high-end QB1 during championship week.
Stay Away:
Philip Rivers (vs. Baltimore)
Rivers is having one of the best years of his career, and is coming up in the top-3 of many experts’ MVP standings. He has only one game this year without multiple TD passes. However, he’ll face his toughest challenge yet this week against Baltimore. The Ravens currently rank 4th against fantasy QB’s, allowing an average of less than 14 fantasy PPG. Only 4 QB’s all year have gone over 20 fantasy points, and 6 have been held to less than 10. Rivers is a risky start against an elite defense this week, and that lands him on the Stay Away list.
Andrew Luck (vs. N.Y. Giants)
Likely 2018’s Comeback Player of the Year, Andrew Luck has fallen below 20 fantasy points just twice since week 3. Unfortunately, those were weeks 13 and 15. Last week against Dallas’ elite pass defense, the offense ran through Marlon Mack and it worked like a charm. The Giants rank in the top-10 defenses against fantasy QB’s this year, allowing an average of just 13 PPG to the position over their last 7 games. Over that same stretch, they’ve allowed 23 fantasy PPG to RB’s. Expect the offense to run through Mack again in week 16.
RB’s
Play:
Jamaal Williams (@ N.Y. Jets)
In his first game without Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery lurking around, Williams took 12 carries for 55 yards and a TD as well as 4 catches for 42 yards. In the last month and a half of last season, when he was the feature back in the Green Bay offense, Williams ranked as RB8 in fantasy. The volume will be there for Williams to continue handling RB1 workloads, and the offense is dynamic enough to result in fantasy production. Williams is a high-end RB2 over the next 2 weeks.
Chris Carson (vs. Kansas City)
Carson enjoyed his best game of the year last week against the 49ers, taking 22 carries for 119 yards and a TD while catching all 6 of his targets for 29 receiving yards. This week, Carson and the Seahawks will be facing the Chiefs, who rank 30th in the league against fantasy RB’s, currently allowing an average of 22.4 fantasy PPG. This includes allowing a rushing TD in all but 4 games this year, so Carson’s heavy workload should continue to produce for his fantasy owners.
Stay Away:
Matt Breida (vs. Chicago)
Breida is coming off of a nice 22-touch, 96-yard performance against Seattle in an upset win. He’ll have a heck of a challenge following that up against the elite Chicago defense, currently allowing fewer fantasy PPG to opposing RB’s than any other team. Only 3 times this year have the Bears allowed 20+ fantasy points to opposing RB’s. Leave Breida on the bench this week as he’ll be outmatched by the speed and aggression of the Chicago defense.
Tevin Coleman (@ Carolina)
Last week against Arizona, Coleman enjoyed his best game on the ground of his career, taking just 11 carries for 145 yards and a TD. However, Coleman has not been that reliable recently. Over weeks 10-14, he averaged just 4.6 standard fantasy PPG. The Falcons will likely take their foot of the gas the next 2 weeks during a lost season, and Coleman shouldn’t be expected to produce like he did last week again against a Carolina defense that currently ranks 7th in the league against opposing fantasy RB’s.
WR’s
Play:
Amari Cooper (vs. Tampa Bay)
Amari Cooper is one of the more difficult WR’s to predict. Over the last 6 games, he has gone under 10 points four times and over 30 points two times. However, he is a lock for a big game this week against Tampa Bay, who rank 26th in the league this year against fantasy WR’s. They’ve allowed at least 1 receiving TD in all but 1 game this year, and Cooper’s WR1 workload will pay dividends this week.
Robby Anderson (vs. Green Bay)
I featured Anderson on the Early Waiver Wire Favorites article this past Sunday, after he had recorded at least 75 yards and a TD in each of the last 2 weeks. He and Darnold have found their connection as a QB-WR combo, and Anderson will continue to receive a high target share in the Jets’ offense. The Packers rank 29th in the league against opposing WR’s this year, allowing an average of 24.7 fantasy PPG. Lock Anderson in as a low-end WR2/high-end Flex play this week.
Stay Away:
Mike Evans (@ Dallas)
Evans has returned to the fantasy struggle bus more often than not since Winston’s return to the starting lineup. Last week, he salvaged a 4-catch performance by taking them for 121 receiving yards. Dallas has been great against the pass lately, ranking 4th in the league against opposing WR’s on the season. Over the last 4 weeks, they’ve allowed just 13.25 fantasy PPG to the position. Leave Evans on the bench with the championship on the line.
Kenny Golladay (vs. Minnesota)
After a 3-game stretch with just 145 receiving yards, Golladay caught 7 passes for 146 receiving yards against the Bills in week 15. This game should be treated as a fluke. The Detroit offense doesn’t have the firepower to help Golladay produce like this on a weekly basis, especially against Minnesota. The Vikings rank 2nd in the league against opposing WR’s, allowing just 3 receiving TD’s since week 5. Leave Golladay out of your lineups this week.
TE’s
Play:
David Njoku (vs. Cincinnati)
Njoku’s production hasn’t been anything amazing lately, but the issue is, the TE position is incredibly thin. Njoku’s value comes from opportunity, as he has regularly led the Browns in routes run. Cincinnati conceded 68 receiving yards and a TD last week against Oakland, so Njoku will have a great opportunity to find similar success in week 16.
Evan Engram (@ Indianapolis)
After a disappointing 2018 season, Engram has combined for 14 fantasy points and 152 receiving yards. He was fantasy’s TE1 last week against the Titans, while reaching his season high in catches. Indianapolis has been vulnerable to the TE position this year, allowing 7 catches for 77.7 receiving yards to the position over their last 6 games. Engram seems to have found his stride again this year, and his 12 targets last week are a sign of good things to come.
Stay Away:
Rob Gronkowski (vs. Buffalo)
Despite being near universally ranked as TE1 going into this season, Gronk has had a pretty down year. He is averaging just 5.5 standard fantasy PPG on the year, and has found the endzone only 3 times. He’ll have a tough matchup this week against the Bills, who have allowed the second-fewest fantasy PPG to the position this year. Over the last 4 weeks, they’ve allowed an average of just 17.25 receiving yards per game to TE’s. Don’t expect a big bounce-back game from Gronk in week 16.
Vance McDonald (@ New Orleans)
Most years, the season that Vance McDonald is having wouldn’t be enough to land him on a lot of fantasy rosters. However, his average of 4.8 standard fantasy PPG lands him at TE10 on the year. In what should be a great week 16 matchup, the Steelers face the Saints, who have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to the position on the year and just 4 total TD’s. Leave McDonald out of the championship rotation in week 16.