Olaya's Favorite Players in Rounds 1-5

One of the most important tips for any type of fantasy draft is to always go in with a plan. Before each draft you should have a set of players that you should try to get on your team so you know who to pick when time is running out on the clock. That being said, this article kicks off a 3 part series in which I will suggest a player to choose in each round of your draft (12 person, Standard Scoring). Today, we look at rounds 1-5.

Round 1: Saquon Barkley (RB, ADP 1.01)

To put it simply, you’re making a mistake if you take anyone other than Saquon Barkley with the first overall pick. He was 2nd in scoring among RBs just behind Todd Gurley, but Gurley is likely to see a dip in production due to his knee issue. He managed to put up over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 15 TDs in only his rookie season, and with Odell Beckham Jr. in Cleveland he is set to be the primary option in the Giants offense.

Even though losing OBJ may hurt the Giants passing offense, the Giants have improved their offensive line significantly in the offseason, headlined by receiving one of the better guards in the league in Kevin Zeitler thru the OBJ trade. Barkley should also be a threat to lead the Giants in targets and receptions this year after a strong showing in the passing game last year (91 catches on 121 targets). The Giants’ plan is to use Barkley everywhere on the field, making him one of the safest picks in the first round.

Round 2: Nick Chubb (RB, ADP 2.04)

Nick Chubb is set to have a fantastic year. While most of the hype around the Cleveland Browns this year is due to the potential of the passing game with Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr., Nick Chubb should not be overlooked as a key component in this offense. Despite only starting 9 games, Chubb finished as a top 15 RB, giving fantasy owners a sneak peek into how much he can produce with a full 16 games.

Chubb is also in a much better situation now than he was last year. The Browns project to have more positive game scripts that favor the run game, and he is unlikely to see stacked boxes with OBJ and Jarvis Landry stretching the field. On top of all that, the Browns recently traded Duke Johnson, meaning Chubb should be able to be much more involved in the passing game, a weak point of his in 2018. Chubb should be the RB you’re targeting if you miss out on the top RB tier (Barkley, McCaffrey, Kamara, Elliott, and Johnson), as he has a realistic chance of finishing as a top 5 RB by the end of the year.

Round 3: Leonard Fournette (RB, ADP 3.02)

Leonard Fournette is the only player in the draft that you can get after the 2nd round that can finish as a top 5 RB. But clearly there is a reason he is being drafted so late. After a promising rookie year in 2017, Fournette busted in 2018 due to struggles with injuries as well as character issues that resulted in a one-game suspension. For any fantasy owners that had Fournette last year (like me), it’s understandable to not want any part of Fournette in 2019, but his ceiling is too hard to ignore at a 3rd round ADP.

The true workhorse RB in the NFL may be dying, but not in Jacksonville. Everything out of training camp indicates that the Jaguars are going to run their offense through Fournette, as well as use him in the passing game. Perhaps the most encouraging news for Fournette this offseason is the absence of any news on the injury front. Fournette has had nagging ankle injuries going back to his college days, but it seems as though he is past that. When Fournette is on the field he produces like a RB1, and taking a chance on him here could reap massive benefits come playoff time.

Round 4: Zach Ertz (TE, ADP 4.04)

In a round that has RBs with workload or injury concerns (Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay, Sony Michel) and good WRs lacking top-tier upside (Stefon Diggs, Julian Edelman, Brandin Cooks), I feel great taking Zach Ertz in the 4th round. Ertz finished as a top 3 tight end last year behind Travis Kelce and George Kittle with 1,163 yards and 8 TDs.

It’s impossible to ignore the fact that Ertz is set for target regression in 2019. He had a career-high 156 targets last year, a number that will likely drop off this year with a healthy Alshon Jeffery and the addition of DeSean Jackson. That being said, a fully healthy Carson Wentz should be a massive boost for this offense from last year, in turn aiding Ertz's fantasy production.

Picking Ertz here also provides great value at a position that has been slowly dying in the fantasy world: Tight End. After the top 3 guys at the position their is a significant drop off of talent, so the smart thing to do is grab a known quantity at TE before you miss your chance. Last year Ertz had 70 points more than the TE6, showing the risk you run if you decide to wait on a tight end. That fact, in combination with the depth at the WR position makes Ertz a solid pick in the 4th round, especially considering Ertz could straight up outscore a WR you take in this round at a much more valuable position.

Round 5: Deshaun Watson (QB, ADP 5.04)

Grabbing A.J. Green at the top of the fifth round (ADP 5.01) is a great move for a guy who is a borderline top 5 receiver when he is on the field, but considering most people don’t like drafting injured players, another great value in the 5th round is Deshaun Watson. Most Watson critics last offseason pointed to his impossible-to-replicate touchdown rate from 2017, but despite regressing in touchdowns thrown per attempt, Watson still finished as a top 5 QB.

Even more intriguing is the fact that Watson did so well despite the lack of receiving options. Both Will Fuller and Keke Coutee were injured most of 2018, leaving Watson with DeAndre Hopkins as his only reliable target in the passing game. Watson has been nothing short of outstanding with Will Fuller in the lineup, averaging 24.77 ppg in the 11 games they’ve played together. Extrapolated over a full season, that 24.77 ppg would result in the best fantasy season for a quarterback in the past 5 years after Mahomes’ monster 2018 season.

Projecting Fuller to stay healthy for all 16 games is risky at best, but it is undeniable that Watson should have better options in the passing game than he did last year, especially with the addition of Duke Johnson through trade. While the offensive line is still a concern, Watson projects to be a top 5 QB barring injury, and if Fuller can stay healthy, Watson has a solid chance to dethrone Patrick Mahomes as the best QB in fantasy football.